College Football Best Bets: 3 Noon Picks for Florida vs Arkansas, Clemson vs Notre Dame & More
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Arkansas Razorbacks wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa (4).
- Week 10's college football Saturday is finally upon us.
- Our staff has three best bets for the noon kickoff, including picks for Florida vs Arkansas, Clemson vs Notre Dame and more.
- Check out all three best bets for Saturday's noon college football games below.
The Saturday college football slate for Week 10 is loaded with huge matchups up and down the oddsboard, including several intriguing games kicking off at noon ET:
- No. 23 Kansas State at No. 7 Texas
- Texas A&M at No. 10 Ole Miss
- Arkansas at Florida
- No. 15 Notre Dame at Clemson
- No. 1 Ohio State at Rutgers
… just to name a few. Furthermore, among Saturday's noon offerings, our college football betting staff has picked three games with especially juicy betting potential. Find all three picks below, including current odds as of writing and strike prices to help you navigate the ever-shifting betting market all the way up to Saturday at 12 p.m. ET.
For even more Saturday college football best bets, check out each of our articles for the afternoon and evening kickoff windows, respectively:
Saturday's Noon College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's noon slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Noon | ||
| Noon | ||
| Noon | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Kansas State vs. Texas
Kansas State’s been the second-best bet nationally against the spread since hiring Chris Klieman in 2019. I’ll happily sell in this spot.
Road underdogs of three or more in AP Top 25 matchups have been seriously overvalued, only covering about 42% of the time.
Klieman still has yet to figure out Texas — he’s 0-4 outright and 1-3 against the spread — and the Longhorns are laying a relatively cheap price as home favorites.
The game plan was relatively simple last weekend in a rout vs. BYU, featuring 35 rushing attempts. Expect Texas’ special wide receiving corps to get involved more this weekend.
Defensively, the Longhorns allow only 4.9 yards per play this season in what’s Steve Sarkisian’s best unit.
Arkansas vs. Florida
No team will be more motivated in Week 10 than the Arkansas Razorbacks. A six-game losing streak followed the Hogs into the bye week after losing several high-profile SEC games by a possession.
Head coach Sam Pittman made changes to the staff, primarily firing offensive coordinator Dan Enos and elevating wide receivers coach Kenny Guiton.
Arkansas is expected to roll back changes to the Kendal Briles offense, looking to line up in lighter personnel with a quicker approach. Specifically, Briles ran pace five seconds faster per snap while lining up in 10 personnel.
The biggest change will come to quarterback KJ Jefferson’s release time after multiple seasons averaging 1.5 seconds from snap-to-target execution. Jefferson slipped to 3.25 seconds per pass this season, dropping his NFL quarterback rating from 120 to 85.
The wide receiver route tree is also expected to change, as crossers were a primary weapon for the Hogs the past three seasons. Enos had yet to run a route with crossers this season, but that’s expected to change in Gainesville.
The multiple changes to the offense will keep the Gators on their toes through early possessions in the game.
Florida defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong has revamped the Gators after years of dwelling in the bottom of Power 5 rankings. Armstrong has been instrumental in halftime changes, as Florida has allowed just four touchdowns in the third quarter all season.
Look for a highly motivated Razorbacks team with full health off a bye week to throw the kitchen sink at the Gators defense, with expected halftime changes making this a bet on Arkansas in the first half.
Pick: Arkansas 1H +2.5
Notre Dame vs. Clemson
By Stuckey
Reluctantly, I have to say it is now time to buy the Tigers, who dropped their second straight game to inexplicably fall to 4-4 on the season.
With games against Notre Dame, South Carolina, North Carolina and Georgia Tech remaining on the schedule, bowl eligibility is no longer even a certainty.
However, I think we've reached the bottom of the market on Clemson, which closed as only a 2-point home underdog against Florida State in a game it won the total yardage battle, 429-311.
Clemson has undoubtedly had a massively disappointing season, but two of its losses came in overtime, while each has been filled with misfortune in the turnover, fourth-down and red-zone departments.
In their four losses, the Tigers have combined to go 2-of-7 on fourth-down attempts with a -6 turnover margin, including two defensive scores allowed. Crucial missed field goals and 10 lost fumbles also haven't helped matters.
From a pure net yardage perspective, they actually out-gained those four opponents by over 300 total yards (1558-1249), including last week's 364-202 edge.
In one of his many rants over the past few weeks, head coach Dabo Swinney said the Tigers would have an 8-0 record if they didn't lead FBS in fumbles. He's not totally off base in that regard.
Clemson also has some potential looming red zone regression coming its way, ranking in the bottom 10 nationally in scoring percentage inside the 20. What better week for that to happen than against Notre Dame's second-ranked red-zone scoring defense?
From an injury standpoint, the Irish lost star tight end Mitchell Evans, who leads the team in receiving yards with 10 more catches than anybody else, to a season-ending injury last week. He matters.
Meanwhile, Clemson will likely not have the services of running back Will Shipley, who suffered a concussion last week.
However, more carries for Phil Mafah might actually provide a boost to the offense, especially in the red zone. To date, Mafah has averaged 6.0 yards per carry to Shipley's 4.6 in addition to 1.5 more yards per carry after contact.
Mafah brings much more explosiveness with a 59-33% edge in breakaway run rate and is also a better pass blocker.
Things aren't as bad as they may appear on the surface at Clemson, which still can lean on its elite defense.
Following Notre Dame's 58-7 blowout victory over the corpse of Pittsburgh, this is too enticing of a number to pass up on in a classic buy-low/sell-high spot.
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
