SMU vs East Carolina Odds, Prediction & Picks | Thursday AAC Betting Guide
Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: SMU’s Jahari Rogers.
SMU vs ECU Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | -450 |
| East Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 49.5 -105o / -115u | +350 |
On Thursday night, we'll see SMU go on the road to take on East Carolina in an AAC clash.
Both of these teams have had similar struggles this year. Each side has had to replace its veteran quarterback and rely on its defense to keep its sputtering offense alive.
With the strengths of these two teams lining up well, I believe this makes for a potentially predictable outcome on Thursday night.
Let’s take a look at the odds for SMU vs. East Carolina, along with my pick for this NCAAF betting preview for Thursday, Oct. 12.
This year’s SMU team doesn't appear to have the high-scoring passing offense it's had in years past.
It makes sense after losing Tanner Mordecai to Wisconsin and Rashee Rice to the NFL, and Preston Stone has not proven that he can carry this offense in the same way.
The Mustangs rank 63rd in Offensive Success Rate and 52nd in Finishing Drives. The rushing game has been their strength, ranking 38th in Success Rate and 50th in PPA.
While the aerial has been relatively weak with a rank of 79th in Success Rate, it's been an explosive unit that comes in at eighth in the country in terms of creating big plays.
Defensively, this team has been stout. SMU ranks 21st in Success Rate overall, coming in at 15th against the run and 39th against the pass.
The Mustangs' main issue on defense has been allowing explosive passing plays, where they rank 104th. However, ECU sits 117th in passing explosiveness, so I don’t think that will hurt them this weekend.
East Carolina’s offense has been among the worst in FBS this season. The Pirates rank 120th in Success Rate and 130th in Finishing Drives while sitting 124th as a unit, per SP+.
Alex Flinn was tasked with replacing longtime quarterback Holton Ahlers this offseason, but it has not gone well thus far. Flinn currently has just one passing touchdown to five interceptions this year and is averaging -0.23 EPA per dropback.
Those numbers have led ECU to rank 120th in Passing Success Rate and 121st in Passing PPA. The lack of a competent passing game is a big problem for the Pirates considering they throw the ball at the 48th-highest rate in the country.
On the ground, ECU sits 92nd in Success Rate and 97th in PPA. That plays right into SMU’s defensive strength, so I wouldn't expect much production from the ground game either.
Similar to SMU, East Carolina’s defense has performed much better than its offense this season, ranking 26th in Success Rate and 11th in Finishing Drives. They're also the 10th-best defense in the nation at creating Havoc.
The best aspect of this Pirates unit is the rushing defense, which ranks 13th in Success Rate and 43rd in PPA. Meanwhile, ECU comes in at 58th in Success Rate and 89th in PPA against the pass.
This gap between PPA and Success Rate is explained by the Pirates' tendency to allow explosive plays. They sit 115th in passing explosiveness allowed and 129th in rushing explosiveness allowed, which puts them at 131st nationally in overall explosiveness allowed.
While SMU’s run game isn't overtly explosive, we may see the passing game put up some big plays against this defense.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how SMU and East Carolina match up statistically:
SMU Offense vs. East Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 38 | 13 | |
| Line Yards | 26 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 79 | 88 | |
| Havoc | 12 | 14 | |
| Finishing Drives | 52 | 11 | |
| Quality Drives | 15 | 68 |
East Carolina Offense vs. SMU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 94 | 15 | |
| Line Yards | 84 | 62 | |
| Pass Success | 120 | 60 | |
| Havoc | 79 | 75 | |
| Finishing Drives | 130 | 87 | |
| Quality Drives | 122 | 27 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 63 | 50 |
| PFF Coverage | 85 | 76 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 113 | 108 |
| Middle 8 | 2 | 49 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.6 (23) | 26.7 (63) |
| Rush Rate | 53.4% (56) | 50.4% (93) |
SMU vs East Carolina
Betting Prediction, Pick
I believe the strengths of these teams match up well with what their opponents will want to do.
On one side, ECU's run defense should be able to stifle an SMU ground game that's been leaned on heavily to this point. On the other, the Mustangs' main defensive strength comes against the run, which has been the most respectable part of East Carolina’s poor offense.
While I'm worried about SMU potentially generating some explosive passing plays against ECU's defense, I still believe in these two defenses more than either offensive unit.
For that reason, I like taking the under at 51.5 and would play it down to 49.5.
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