The South Alabama Jaguars take on the Troy Trojans in Troy, AL. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Troy is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. The total is set at 47 points.
Here’s my South Alabama vs. Troy predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 4, 2025.
S. Alabama vs Troy Prediction
- South Alabama vs. Troy Pick: South Alabama +2.5
My Troy vs. South Alabama best bet is on the Jaguars to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
South Alabama vs Troy Odds
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -140 |
- South Alabama vs Troy point spread: Troy -2.5
- South Alabama vs Troy over/under: 47 points
- South Alabama vs Troy moneyline: South Alabama +120, Troy -140
South Alabama vs Troy Pick, Betting Analysis
South Alabama enters this game on a four-game losing streak (Tulane, Auburn, Coastal Carolina, North Texas) and now it must travel to Troy to face a .500 Trojans team.
Troy has played Clemson and Memphis already this season (both were losses), and it's coming off a bye and a road victory over Buffalo two weeks ago.
It seems like the Jaguars would be tough to back in this spot. However, multiple systems are targeting South Alabama on the spread.
The best of the bunch is Evan Abrams' "Early Road Redemption" system, which has a 9% return on investment (ROI) since its inception and a 8% ROI since the beginning of the 2025 season.
The "Early Road Redemption" system is one that identifies value on visiting teams in the opening stretch of the season after they've underperformed against the spread in their previous outing.
The market often punishes these teams too heavily for a single early loss, creating inflated lines in the next matchup.
By narrowing the spread range between modest underdogs and double digit spots, the system captures situations where the road team is competitive but overlooked.
These games are played in manageable weather conditions and typically fall within lower scoring totals, which reduce volatility and keep contests closer than expected.
When teams in their first eight games seek redemption on the road after a poor showing against the spread, they frequently outperform expectations, making this a profitable angle.
Pick: South Alabama +2.5
