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The Syracuse Orange take on the UNC Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, on Saturday, Oct. 24. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on the ACC Network.
UNC is favored by -8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -360. Syracuse, meanwhile, enters as a +8.5 underdog and is +280 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 46.5 total points.
Here’s my Syracuse vs. UNC prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 24.
Syracuse vs UNC Prediction
- Syracuse vs. UNC Pick: North Carolina -8.5 (-108 · BetMGM)
My UNC vs. Syracuse best bet is on the Tar Heels to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Syracuse vs UNC Odds
| Syracuse Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 46.5 -114o / -106u | +280 |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 46.5 -114o / -106u | -360 |
- Syracuse vs UNC point spread: Syracuse +8.5 (-110), UNC -8.5 (-110)
- Syracuse vs UNC over/under: 46.5 (-114o / -106u)
- Syracuse vs UNC moneyline: Syracuse +280, UNC -360
Syracuse vs UNC College Football Preview
Syracuse Orange Betting Preview: All-Around Catastrophe
If you're in Chapel Hill this Saturday, you may have the chance to suit up for Syracuse, with Malachi Nelson and Amari Odom listed as out on the Orange injury report.
Luckily for them, Steve Angeli has been elevated to questionable and is trending toward playing as we near kickoff.
Unfortunately for the Orange, no matter who's under center, the offense hasn't found its footing and ranks below league average in Success Rate. Before going down with an injury, Angeli was abysmal in the pocket, throwing five picks in three games.
With Cuse being incapable of airing out the ball, opposing defenses have been allowed to stack the box at a higher rate to help stuff the run, keeping the Orange in the bottom half of the board in Rush EPA Per Play.
Barring a sudden turnaround from Angeli, expect Syracuse to keep struggling to stay ahead of the sticks and stall out early in the drive.
On the other side of the ball, the Orange have also underwhelmed on defense, limping into Week 8 ranked outside the top-80 in explosiveness allowed and in Points Per Opportunity allowed.
When Cuse can't create Havoc, the second level is vulnerable to getting beat over the top, making it hard to keep opponents out of scoring position.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview: Struggles of Their Own
In Bill Belichick’s second year at the helm, North Carolina has been able to hover near the top of the ACC standings with a 2-1 record in conference play.
The Tar Heels' offensive turnaround has played a major role in their success this season, with the team climbing into the top half of the board in Success Rate and Finishing Drives.
While the Tar Heels can consistently cut the distance to gain in half, quarterback Billy Edwards Jr.'s inability to take care of the ball holds the offense back, averaging one turnover-worthy play per game.
Even with a clean pocket, Edwards has struggled to connect with his wideouts, completing just 59.9% of his passes.
Like the Orange, the Tar Heels' struggles through the air have also allowed opposing linebackers to shade to the middle, holding running back Demon June to 3.8 yards per carry.
North Carolina’s front five grades out well in Run Blocking Grade, per PFF, yet the extra bodies across the line of scrimmage force the Tar Heels' back to fight off contact in the trenches, leading to minimal gains with each carry.
Speaking of turnover-worthy plays, creating disruptions at multiple levels of the field has been a hassle for the Tar Heels defense, entering Week 8 ranked 120th in Havoc.
Even when holding opponents to just 3.08 Points Per Opportunity, the Tar Heels will keep playing in highly volatile contests until the defense can create hard stops.
Syracuse vs UNC Pick, Betting Analysis
Whether it's Angeli or Danny Lauter, positive regression is looming large over the Tar Heels defense with both quarterbacks struggling to march down the field.
North Carolina’s cornerbacks have also proven they can hold their own in single coverage while ranking in the top-10 in passing explosiveness allowed.
Assuming Angeli gets the start, his conservative throws will allow the Tar Heels' secondary to cheat up to the line of scrimmage, making it easier to jam the Orange receivers without fear of getting countered by an explosive play.
North Carolina’s extra bodies near the point of contact will also narrow the width of Angeli’s passing lanes.
With the ground game failing to give Syracuse the versatility it needs to muck up the Tar Heels, the Orange will stay comfortably behind the line to gain for most of the contest.
Place a wager on North Carolina to cover the spread at no higher than -10, with intentions of adding more to your position should they steam down to the key number of -7.
If Angeli can't suit up and Lauter starts instead, place a separate wager on the Orange to be held under the team total of 17.5.
Pick: North Carolina -8.5 (Play to -10)
