TCU vs Texas Tech Odds, Picks: Why to Back Red Raiders

TCU and Texas Tech — two teams that were projected to finish in the upper echelon of the Big 12 — face off on Thursday night in Lubbock.

Unfortunately for both, the 2023 season hasn't gone according to plan.

The new reality for both the Horned Frogs and Red Raiders is that they're fighting for bowl eligibility, which makes Thursday night's battle all the more important.

Let's dive into the TCU vs. Texas Tech odds and make a prediction for Thursday night's Big 12 battle.

After a dream start to the Sonny Dykes era in 2022, things have changed quickly in Fort Worth.

The loss of offensive coordinator Garrett Riley was significant, and obviously, Max Duggan played at a sensational level a year ago.

Those departures grab the headlines, but the bigger drop-off may be on the defensive side of the ball.

Last week, Kansas State amassed 587 yards of total offense and converted 10-of-13 third-down attempts in a 41-3 win over the Frogs. TCU needs to do a better job of stopping the run to take some pressure off of its secondary.

Offensively, Chandler Morris started the year at quarterback,  but Josh Hoover has taken over.

The youngster, as expected, has been up and down since taking over.

Look for Hoover to take some chances down the field against a Tech defense that has surrendered some big plays.

When you look at the 3-5 record, you'd think Texas Tech was one of the worst in the Power 5. However, I don't think that tells the full story.

Texas Tech has been decimated by injuries, including to its top two quarterbacks, and a litany of players on the defensive side.

Add in the fact that the Red Raiders are 0-3 in games that have been decided by one score, and it's easy to see how the wheels have fallen off a little bit for Joey McGuire in Year 2.

With games still remaining against Kansas and Texas, the Red Raiders must handle business at home if they want any chance to participate in the postseason.

Getting Behren Morton back from a shoulder injury should be a big boost for the offense. When Morton tried to play in recent weeks, he was a shell of himself and was clearly dealing with a lot of pain.

It sounds like this past week was the first week in which he was able to fully partake in practice and throw without restriction.

Defensively, the Red Raiders need to do a better job of creating negative plays and taking the ball away.

They check in at 98th out of 133 FBS teams in our Havoc Rankings and haven't gotten off the field at critical points in many of their losses.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how TCU and Texas Tech match up statistically:

TCU Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	23	52
Line Yards	13	70
Pass Success	41	51
Havoc	44	98
Finishing Drives	97	69
Quality Drives	33	62

Texas Tech Offense vs. TCU Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	32	75
Line Yards	12	91
Pass Success	69	46
Havoc	20	76
Finishing Drives	58	37
Quality Drives	87	56

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	63	17
PFF Coverage	48	85
Special Teams SP+	100	43
Middle 8	64	62
Seconds per Play	21.4 (3)	22.4 (6)
Rush Rate	47.5% (110)	49.9% (94)

I'm gonna back the home team as a small favorite in what is basically a must-win for Texas Tech's bowl hopes.

The importance of Morton's return can't be understated, especially given how shaky Jake Strong looked at quarterback.

Additionally, Tahj Brooks should be in line for another huge day on the ground against a Horned Frogs front that has struggled to stop the run.

Hoover and the TCU offense will hit a few plays down the field, but I've got more confidence in the Red Raiders to get some timely stops than I do in TCU's defense.

Lastly, despite the 3-5 record, Texas Tech's fans are seemingly always out in full force for prime-time games, which should give a nice lift to a team that desperately needs a win.