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The Texas Longhorns take on the Missouri Tigers in Columbia, Mo. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. EST on ESPN.
Texas is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -142. The total is set at 42.5 points.
Here’s my Texas vs. Missouri prediction and college football pick for Saturday, November 7, 2026.
Texas vs Missouri Prediction
- Texas vs. Missouri Pick: Missouri Team Total Under 20.5 Points (-128, Play to 17.5)
My Missouri vs. Texas best bet is on Missouri team total under 20.5. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Texas vs Missouri Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -122 | 42.5 -115o / -105u | -142 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 42.5 -115o / -105u | +120 |
- Texas vs Missouri point spread: Texas -2.5 (-122), Missouri +2.5 (+100)
- Texas vs Missouri over/under: 42.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Texas vs Missouri moneyline: Texas -142, Missouri +120
Texas vs Missouri College Football Preview
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview: Injury Avalanche
Even in a win over Mississippi State, the celebrations for Texas were cut short with Cam Coleman, Ryan Wingo, and Hollywood Smothers all going down with injuries against the Bulldogs. A devastating result after Trevor Goosby had already been ruled out for the remainder of the year, a pillar of the Longhorns' offensive line who is projected to be a top-10 pick in next year’s draft.
The injuries for Texas could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back, with the Longhorns already struggling on offense, limping into Week 10 ranked 74th in Success Rate, 95th in Explosiveness, and 129th in Havoc Allowed. Arch Manning’s inconsistencies have made it difficult for Texas to stay ahead of the sticks, leaving the offense vulnerable to stalling out early on in drives.
While Coleman and Wingo are expected to play at less than 100%, Smothers' outlook looks bleak, forcing the Longhorns to lean more heavily on Raleek Brown. When given the opportunity, Brown has been a consistent source of production in the Texas backfield, averaging nearly five yards per carry.
With question marks lingering over the offense, the Longhorns will need to continue to play at a high level on the other side of the ball in order to keep their hopes of making the playoffs alive. Luckily for Texas, the defense has been the strength of the team this season, entering Week 10 ranked in the top 25 in Success Rate, Explosiveness, Finishing Drives, and Havoc.
Missouri Tigers Betting Preview: One-Dimensional Success
Missouri’s hot start to the year is arguably one of the bigger surprises of the season, with the Tigers just one win away from clearing the over on their regular-season win total while sitting 1.5 games back from first in the SEC conference standings. Austin Simmons' resurgence under center has played a major role in Missouri’s success, throwing just two interceptions in eight games while averaging 8.1 yards per throw.
While Simmons has been able to thrive through the air, the Tigers' running back room has yet to find its footing, ranking near the bottom of the board in Rush Success Rate and PPA. When Jamal Roberts is unable to hit the ground running, opposing defenses can stretch out their linebackers across the middle, smothering Simmons' passing lanes at multiple levels of the field.
It is worth noting Ahmad Hardy was able to make his return to the field after suffering a scary gunshot wound in the offseason, potentially giving Missouri the spark it needs to be a well-rounded offense. While his return was welcome to see, expectations will need to be tempered, with the Tigers' running back being held to just two carries.
Like Texas, Missouri has also built its success on the shoulders of the defense, fielding a group that ranks 29th in Success Rate and fifth in Havoc. While the Tigers do give up explosive plays at an alarming rate, they are able to successfully keep their opponents out of the end zone, giving up just 3.03 Points per Opportunity.
Texas vs Missouri Pick, Betting Analysis
While Simmons has been able to play far better than initially expected, negative regression is looming large over the Tigers' quarterback as he battles it out against a secondary that excels in coverage, per its top-30 mark in Dropback EPA Allowed per play. With the Longhorns keeping a body on Missouri’s pass catchers' hips, the amount of Havoc in Simmons' throws will increase, leading to an uptick in his total number of Turnover-Worthy Plays.
Even with Hardy back on the field, it’s tough to envision the star running back being able to quickly shake off the rust, making the Tigers far too one-dimensional. Barring a sudden turnaround on the ground, Texas will be able to drop more bodies back in coverage, making it easier to create disruptions.
Colin Simmons has also been upgraded to questionable, yet it remains to be seen if the Longhorns' edge rusher will suit up on Saturday. While the Longhorns do generate pressure at a high rate, Simmons would help pull defensive attention to the edge, freeing up more space in the interior to help the middle of the defensive line collapse the pocket.
With no clear path for success, expect Missouri to be held to early outs at a consistent rate, chipping away at the Tigers' total number of scoring opportunities. Place a wager on Missouri to be held under the team total of 20.5, with intentions of adding more to your position should the market tick back up to the key number of 21.
Pick: Missouri Team Total Under 20.5 Points (-128, Play to 17.5)
Texas vs Missouri Betting Trends
