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The Texas State Bobcats take on the Boise State Broncos in Boise, Idaho. Kickoff is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT on The CW.
Boise State is favored by -10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -450. The total is set at 63.5 points.
Here’s my Texas State vs. Boise State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 31, 2026.
Texas State vs Boise State Prediction
- Texas State vs. Boise State Pick: Boise State -10.5 (Play to -11.5)
My Boise State vs. Texas State best bet is on the Broncos to cover at home. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Texas State vs Boise State Odds
| Texas St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -105 | 63.5 -115o / -105u | +350 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -115 | 63.5 -115o / -105u | -450 |
- Texas State vs Boise State point spread: Boise State -10.5 (-115), Texas St +10.5 (-105)
- Texas State vs Boise State over/under: 63.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Texas State vs Boise State moneyline: Texas St +350, Boise State -450
Texas State vs Boise State College Football Preview
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview
Texas State remains one of the more frustrating teams in the FBS. Head coach GJ Kinne brought in the Spread-N-Shred offense, making the Bobcats one of the better watches in college football and he's brought them to new winning heights.
But reality hasn't quite met expectations. Although explosive, efficient, and up-tempo, Texas State's best production under Kinne was back-to-back 8-5 seasons with appearances in the First Responder and Armed Forces bowls. Kinne hasn't taken this team anywhere near a conference title game and the move to the Pac-12 might doom those hopes at least for this year.
Texas State still blows leads and loses close games. It comes off back-to-back wins against the conference's bottom tier (Colorado State, Utah State), the second game of which Kinne managed to secure a 20-17 win at the end.
QB Brad Jackson is still one of the most exciting players in college football. He's already crossed the 2,000-yard mark from scrimmage and accounted for 19 touchdowns. Jackson has overcome spotty injuries to top receivers Chris Dawn Jr. and Beau Sparks and has spread the ball around — six different players have over 100 receiving yards and eight have a receiving touchdown.
The defense is still a mess. Kinne brought on defensive coordinator Will Windham from South Alabama–a coach who led the Jaguars to the 112th-ranked points per drive defense last year–and the Bobcats still rank 98th. That number was helped along by playing Utah State last week, an offense in the bottom 10 nationally.
There's reason to believe the defense is improving after the bye, as all FBS foes before that bye week scored 30+ while neither of Texas State's last two opponents reached that mark.
Boise State Broncos Betting Preview
Thanks to a pair of James Madison losses, Boise State sits in the driver's seat for the College Football Playoff. That spot likely is decided on Nov. 14 when the Broncos take on upstart Oregon State at home, but odds favor Boise to represent the Group of Six as it stands today (+110).
Maddux Madsen leads a Boise State offense that stands sixth in both points per drive and Adjusted EPA Per Play, 20th in touchdown rate, and most importantly, best in the nation in giveaways. This makes the Broncos such an impossibly difficult team to beat (even Oregon had its hands full) — they don't make mistakes. Madsen saw an uptick in turnovers last year but that must have been a clear focus this offseason because the senior has yet to throw his first interception.
Boise State fields one of the top offensive lines in the country, landing on the Joe Moore Award midseason top 25 list. That's helped Madsen stay clean (he's taken just six sacks on the year, 14th-fewest) and Boise to develop an outstanding run game.
But that run game may have taken a hit as running back Sire Gaines was spotted in a boot following Boise's 31-10 win over Washington State. Gaines is questionable for this week. Dylan Riley (nearly 1,000 yards) is a dynamic replacement that steps from his role of 1A to workhorse should Gaines sit Week 9 out.
Boise opened the season against a tough slate of offenses (Oregon, Memphis, even South Dakota) and it was gouged by Fresno State's rushing attack. The Broncos' defensive line is its strength, fielding a great pass rush (31st in sack rate) while tackle Mikaio Edward is one of the most dominant forces in the Pac-12.
Its secondary is so talented that it actually skews its per-play run game efficiency. Teams that run into the Boise front have more chances at a positive EPA play than throwing into the teeth of the secondary. But Boise hasn't allowed much of anything on the ground (109.7 yards per game is 22nd-fewest).
Texas State vs Boise State Pick, Betting Analysis
Very early Boise State movement turned into the market siding with Texas State. Anything above the Bobcats +10.5 has been a buy, though it also showed resistance at Boise State -10 or better. A lofty total in this one came down from 65 points, a moderately significant point total.
Part of what works so well for Kinne's Spread-N-Shred is right in the name — Texas State spreads opponents out, stretches them horizontally, then forces defensive backs to play an important role in the run fit. In college football, really good nickel and APEX defenders are hard to find even though teams running the 4-2-5 defense is at an all-time high.
Boise State's defensive backs are excellent run defenders. Do-it-all safety Derek Ganter Jr. is a capable run and pass defender at 212 pounds. Expect him to play a critical role as DC Tyler Stockton lines him up in the box and in the slot.
Texas State runs loose when defenses require linebackers to exit the box and weak side defensive backs don't fit the run well.
On the road against a team that schematically counters this Spread-N-Shred well (see: Utah State with Brevin Hamlin last week), I don't foresee a ton of points from Texas State. This will require a herculean effort from Jackson on the road.
Pick: Boise State -10.5 (Play to -11.5)
Texas State vs Boise State Betting Trends
