NCAAF Odds, Picks for Texas State vs Louisiana

Both Texas State (4-1) and Louisiana (3-2) are looking to inch closer toward bowl eligibility this weekend.

It’s still fairly early in the season to use strength of schedule to determine which team is better, but I believe one team in this matchup has an advantage that lines up with its opponent’s weakness and can be exploited.

Let’s take a look at that mismatch in my Texas State vs. Louisiana betting preview.

In year one under new head coach G.J. Kinne, the Bobcats' offense has impressed.

The four wins the Bobcats have this year already matches their totals from the past two seasons and is tied for their most wins in a season since 2014.

On the year, Texas State is ranked 13th in Offensive Success Rate and third in Finishing Drives. The Bobcats are also the 22nd-most explosive offense in the nation.

They have been great at both rushing and passing, ranking 24th and 10th in Success Rate in those categories, respectively.

Former Auburn and LSU quarterback TJ Finley has been leading this unit and is completing 73% of his passes for 1,394 yards and 10 touchdowns. He's yet to throw an interception and is averaging an astounding 0.40 EPA per dropback.

Running back Ismail Mahdi has been insanely effective as well. He's averaging 0.39 EPA per rush and already has seven rushing touchdowns.

Texas State has scored at least 35 points in four of its five games, including against Baylor.

Defensively, things have been more of a mixed bag. Texas State ranks 59th in Success Rate and 55th in Finishing Drives. On a down-to-down basis, its rushing defense has been its strength (49th in Success Rate). However, the Bobcats' 127th ranking in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed drops them to 98th in Rushing PPA.

The passing defense has been passable, as it ranks 71st in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 65th in Passing PPA Allowed.

Texas State may have to rely on its offense to keep up.

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Louisiana has also had had an impressive offense this year. It ranks 22nd in Success Rate and 44th in Finishing Drives. The Ragin’ Cajuns rank 13th in Rushing Success Rate, 22nd in Rushing Explosiveness and fifth in Rushing PPA.

Through the air, Louisiana ranks 39th in Success Rate but 63rd in passing PPA. The Ragin’ Cajuns have failed to generate any explosive plays through the air and rank 113th in Passing Explosiveness.

Defensively, Louisiana has struggled; it's 81st in Success Rate and 126th in Finishing Drives. The passing defense has been solid — ranking 42nd in Success Rate — but the rushing defense has been abysmal.

Louisiana ranks 110th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 95th in Rushing PPA Allowed.

The Bobcats should have a strong day against this defense.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas State and Louisiana match up statistically:

Texas State Offense vs. Louisiana Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	25	110
Line Yards	27	113
Pass Success	10	32
Havoc	104	85
Finishing Drives	9	126
Quality Drives	32	87

Louisiana Offense vs. Texas State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	13	48
Line Yards	14	42
Pass Success	39	70
Havoc	76	15
Finishing Drives	44	56
Quality Drives	62	94

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	81	75
PFF Coverage	62	89
Special Teams SP+	7	17
Middle 8	38	23
Seconds per Play	23.8 (15)	26.7 (64)
Rush Rate	55.7% (46)	55.1% (47)

Texas State’s offense has been great, albeit against mostly weak competition. Fortunately, Louisiana’s defense shouldn’t provide much resistance.

I expect the Bobcats to keep their success going and put plenty of points on the board.

Louisiana’s offense has also been strong, but that's also been against poor defenses.

While I think Louisiana will have some success against Texas State, I don’t expect the Ragin’ Cajuns to be able to keep up with the Bobcats.

I think the Bobcats' rushing game poses a major mismatch for Louisiana and that will be exploited this weekend.