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The UMass Minutemen take on the Toledo Rockets in Toledo, Ohio, on Wednesday, Nov. 11. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Toledo is favored by -14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -580. UMass, meanwhile, enters as a +14.5 underdog and is +440 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 total points.
Here’s my UMass vs. Toledo prediction and college football pick for Wednesday, November 11.
UMass vs Toledo Prediction
- UMass vs. Toledo Pick: Toledo Team Total Over 33.5 (-120)
My Toledo vs. UMass best bet is on the Rockets to score over 33.5 points. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and download the Action Network app for the latest picks and analysis.
UMass vs Toledo Odds
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -120 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | +440 |
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 +100 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | -580 |
- UMass vs Toledo point spread: Toledo -14.5 (+100), UMass +14.5 (-120)
- UMass vs Toledo over/under: 51.5 (-115o / -105u)
- UMass vs Toledo moneyline: UMass +440, Toledo -580
UMass vs Toledo College Football Preview
UMass Minutemen Betting Preview
UMass has been one of the best stories in college football.
The Minutemen went 0-12 in 2025 and were largely non-competitive. Head coach Joe Harasymiak significantly upgraded the roster, and the addition of Pop Watson at quarterback completely changed the capability and trajectory of the offense.
UMass started the season 4-0 and has since rallied the troops after a four-game losing streak in the middle of the season.
At 5-4, the Minutemen have an opportunity to unlock bowl eligibility for the first time as an FBS program by winning just one of their remaining three contests.
Watson has been incredible this season, and he's throwing the ball really well. Watson has completed 69% of his passes for 1,327 yards with nine touchdown passes. He also adds a run element to the position that has allowed sacks and negative plays to be avoided.
The balanced attack is averaging 348 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play, incredible increases over last season.
The UMass defense played really well the first four weeks of the season, but the performance has tapered off down the stretch. The defensive line has worn down, as UMass has been shredded defensively against the run the last three weeks.
The Havoc numbers have been good, as UMass has recorded 23 sacks, and much of the backfield activity has come at critical moments to get opponents off the field.
Toledo Rockets Betting Preview
Toledo will have opportunities down the stretch to take control of the MAC title race and punch its ticket to Detroit, but the Rockets need to win out to see that dream become a reality.
After a statement win on the road over Eastern Michigan last month, the Rockets haven't put a complete game together.
While back-to-back wins over WMU and Sacramento State are nice after the fact, the performances in those contests leave a lot to be desired.
The defense was shredded in the second half against WMU, as Toledo surrendered a large lead. Last week against Sacramento State, the offense could hardly get a first down in the first half because the team looked disjointed and out of sorts.
Toledo has to start to put strong performances together, and the play of quarterback John Alan Richter will drive how far this offense can go.
Richter has put a great season together, completing 66% of his passes for 2,304 yards and an 18:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but the performance last week against Sacramento State was shockingly bad.
CJ Miller has looked great at running back, and the ground attack has been strong much of the season. The Rockets are averaging 193 rushing yards per game and have scored 20 touchdowns on the ground.
This offense has been very consistent at home, and the Rockets should have a decent showing in this contest.
UMass vs Toledo Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with Toledo listed as a 14-point favorite, and the line has bounced between 13.5 and 15 for the last couple of days. The total comes in at 51.5. I like the Rockets to exceed their team total, which sits at 33.5.
The Toledo offense has performed very consistently at home this season, and last time the Rockets hosted an opponent, Richter threw for 391 yards against Western Michigan.
UMass has struggled to contain better passing attacks this season and has given up some explosiveness through the air. Toledo ranks 20th nationally in passing explosives and 36th in Passing Success Rate.
Toledo cashed in for touchdowns on 2-of-3 red-zone trips last week against Sacramento State, but the prior two contests saw the Rockets with 13 red-zone trips.
Toledo has an offense that cashes in for touchdowns in the red zone, and while UMass was stout in the red zone early on this season, the production has tapered off over the last five weeks.
UMass could struggle to move the football regularly, as this is the best defensive team the Minutemen will have faced all season.
Methodical drives will be difficult to sustain against the Rockets, meaning UMass will have to generate explosive plays. If those don't materialize, quick possessions will lead to short fields for Toledo.
I look for Toledo to bounce back offensively here. The Rockets should exceed 35 points in this game, something they've done four out of five times at home this season.
Pick: Toledo Team Total Over 33.5 (-120)
