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Welcome to the second straight week of MACtion.
Our college football writers came through with a pick for all three of Wednesday's MACtion games: Toledo vs. UMass. Central Michigan vs. Sacramento State and Ball State vs. Buffalo.
Let's dive into their Wednesday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for November 11.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
Wednesday College Football Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Wednesday's slate of MACtion games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Toledo vs. UMass Pick
By Joshua Nunn
This line opened with Toledo listed as a 14-point favorite, and the line has bounced between 13.5 and 15 for the last couple of days. The total comes in at 51.5. I like the Rockets to exceed their team total, which sits at 33.5.
The Toledo offense has performed very consistently at home this season, and last time the Rockets hosted an opponent, quarterback John Alan Richter threw for 391 yards against Western Michigan.
UMass has struggled to contain better passing attacks this season and has given up some explosiveness through the air. Toledo ranks 20th nationally in passing explosives and 36th in Passing Success Rate.
Toledo cashed in for touchdowns on 2-of-3 red-zone trips last week against Sacramento State, but the prior two contests saw the Rockets with 13 red-zone trips.
Toledo has an offense that cashes in for touchdowns in the red zone, and while UMass was stout in the red zone early on this season, the production has tapered off over the last five weeks.
UMass could struggle to move the football regularly, as this is the best defensive team the Minutemen will have faced all season.
Methodical drives will be difficult to sustain against the Rockets, meaning UMass will have to generate explosive plays. If those don't materialize, quick possessions will lead to short fields for Toledo.
I look for Toledo to bounce back offensively here. The Rockets should exceed 35 points in this game, something they've done four out of five times at home this season.
Pick: Toledo Team Total Over 33.5 (-120)
| | |
Central Michigan vs. Sacramento State Pick
By John Feltman
Central Michigan opened around -14.5 before moving toward -18, while the total sits around 43.5.
That implies approximately 12.75 points for Sacramento State, which puts the team total under 13.5 slightly above the market's implications.
The biggest mismatch is Sacramento State's passing offense against Central Michigan's secondary.
The Hornets rank 138th in EPA/Dropback and 137th in Explosiveness, while the Chippewas rank 40th in EPA/Dropback allowed and eighth in limiting explosive plays.
Sacramento State also ranks 136th in EPA/Rush and dead last in Line Yards, leaving the Hornets without a reliable alternative if the passing attack struggles.
The Finishing Drives numbers further support the under. Sacramento State generates just 3.2 Points Per Scoring Opportunity and converts only 40% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns.
That's an enormous concern for an offense that already struggles to reach scoring territory.
The quarterback uncertainty only strengthens the handicap, particularly if Brian Salazar Jr. is forced to start behind an offensive line that allowed five sacks against Toledo.
There's also a legitimate situational advantage for Central Michigan. The Chippewas return home after dominating Eastern Michigan with a run-heavy offense that controlled possession for nearly 41 minutes.
Sacramento State, meanwhile, is playing its third game in just 12 days and must travel across the country.
I expect Central Michigan to establish the ground game, limit possessions and force Sacramento State into obvious passing situations.
The concern at 13.5 is that two touchdowns beat us, so we need CMU to prevent explosives and make Sacramento State earn every scoring opportunity.
I'll trust the Hornets' offensive limitations and Central Michigan's ability to prevent explosives.
Pick: Sacramento State Team Total Under 13.5
| | |
Ball State vs. Buffalo Pick
By RoadToCFB
Buffalo is a 2.5-point road favorite, a number that’s remained largely unchanged. Ball State +3 flashed but is an obvious buy point. The total opened at 48.5 and was bet up to 51.5 with little resistance the other way.
Those looking to bet the total would be wise to be patient, as 51 is a critical number in college football betting (and 52 isn’t far behind).
Over the past three games, Buffalo has been getting home at an efficient clip. Against Miami, Bowling Green and UMass, the Bulls logged a sack on 11.8% of opposing dropbacks, the eighth-best mark over that span in the FBS.
There’s a clear advantage here as Ball State’s offensive line has not delivered top-grade pass protection to Luster.
Buffalo running back Messiah Burch saw a significant decline in participation with the return of Terrance Shelton Jr. (62 snaps over Burch’s 38). Though Burch saw the majority of the carries (15), it was a stark decline from his previous workload.
Given that Burch carried the ball 25 times a game in Shelton’s absence (peaking at 33), don’t be surprised if Tony Tokarz continues winding down his share of carries in spite of his success.
As Buffalo continues its bizarre rhythm of playing up and down to opponents, I’m looking for a decline during Wednesday's road game.
Ball State is stronger against the run than the pass, and Tokarz hasn’t instilled much confidence as a consistent play-caller. Shelton was the immediate No. 1 back upon his return, and Burch has potentially been relegated to a rotator.
Pick: Messiah Burch Under 80.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 75.5)
