If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
The Buffalo Bulls take on the Ball State Cardinals in Muncie, Indiana. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EST on ESPN2.
Buffalo is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -132. The total is set at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Buffalo vs. Ball State prediction and college football pick for Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
Buffalo vs Ball State Prediction
- Buffalo vs. Ball State Pick: Messiah Burch Under 80.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 75.5)
My Ball State vs. Buffalo best bet is a prop pick on Messiah Burch's rushing yards. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Buffalo vs Ball State Odds
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | -132 |
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 51.5 -105o / -115u | +110 |
- Buffalo vs Ball State point spread: Buffalo -2.5 (-110), Ball State +2.5 (-110)
- Buffalo vs Ball State over/under: 51.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Buffalo vs Ball State moneyline: Buffalo -132, Ball State +110
Buffalo vs Ball State College Football Preview
Buffalo Bulls Betting Preview
This season for Buffalo has been the definition of both playing up to and down to competition.
The Bulls have played in six one-score games with the likes of Albany, Robert Morris, and UMass (without its star quarterback), but also with Western Michigan and Miami. Buffalo beat up on Toledo but also melted against FIU.
A messy offense has seen some marginal improvement thanks to the discovery of running back Messiah Burch (100-plus yards in five straight games, snapped last Tuesday).
When Burch was schemed out of the Miami game — both by a combination of Buffalo’s defense giving up a ton of production and Miami coming prepared — quarterback Jason Wright showed some ability to shoulder the load, accounting for four touchdowns and 34 points.
Buffalo's defense keeps everything in front of it and tackles well. The issue is that it gives up too much underneath, leading to a 46% Success Rate allowed (99th nationally).
But forcing offenses to execute, especially in the red zone (and especially in the MAC), could certainly be a worse strategy, and it’s led Buffalo to a 6-3 record (4-1 in the MAC) with a clear path to the MAC Championship.
In this iteration of the MAC, you don’t need a good offense to win games. It’s a defense-focused league with some serious talent deficiency, especially at quarterback, and Buffalo is able to lean on its workhorse back.
Ball State Cardinals Betting Preview
Keldric Luster makes Ball State a competitive football team.
If it weren’t for some baffling late-game management (and a shanked extra point in overtime) last Wednesday at UMass, the Cardinals would be winners of three straight and in decent position to make a bowl game with two games at home left.
But after that loss, Ball State is 3-6, and it must win out to salvage bowl eligibility – with a game at Ohio on deck, that’s unlikely.
Without Luster, Ball State was atrocious, losing 26-13 to Kent State in an obvious low point of the season. The roster has good size up front, and Luster helps extend plays to find explosives downfield with athletic receivers. But it isn’t consistent or reliable enough.
The defense allows way too many drives to end up in the end zone, giving up 31 to Bowling Green (116th in points per drive) and touchdowns on 41% of drives (seventh-most). This is also the nation’s worst red zone defense, allowing a 0.58 EPA (last) and a nearly 60% Success Rate (third-to-last).
Ball State’s offensive approach isn’t great. Early downs are a disaster, forcing Luster to hold on to the ball and make something happen on third and fourth down – not a great strategy for prolonged success and an explanation as to why this team is so inconsistent. Despite missing a game and a half, Luster is the third-most pressured quarterback in the MAC (87).
Buffalo vs Ball State Pick, Betting Analysis
Buffalo is a 2.5-point road favorite, a number that’s remained largely unchanged. Ball State +3 flashed but is an obvious buy point. The total opened at 48.5 and was bet up to 51.5 with little resistance the other way.
Those looking to bet the total would be wise to be patient, as 51 is a critical number in college football betting (and 52 isn’t far behind).
Over the past three games, Buffalo has been getting home at an efficient clip — against Miami, Bowling Green, and UMass, the Bulls logged a sack on 11.8% of opposing dropbacks, the eighth-best mark over that span in the FBS.
There’s a clear advantage here as Ball State’s offensive line has not delivered top-grade pass protection to Luster.
Burch saw a significant decline in participation with the return of Terrance Shelton (62 snaps over Burch’s 38). Though Burch saw the majority of the carries (15), it was a stark decline from his previous workload.
Given that Burch carried the ball 25 times a game in Shelton’s absence (peaking at 33), don’t be surprised if Tony Tokarz continues winding down his share of carries in spite of his success.
As Buffalo continues its bizarre rhythm of playing up and down to opponents, I’m looking for a decline during Wednesday's road game.
Ball State is stronger against the run than the pass, and Tokarz hasn’t instilled much confidence as a consistent play caller. Shelton was the immediate No. 1 back upon his return, and Burch has potentially been relegated to a rotator.
Pick: Messiah Burch Under 80.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 75.5)
