The USC Trojans take on the Oregon Ducks in Eugene, Oregon, on Saturday, Nov. 22. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Oregon is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -390. USC, meanwhile, enters as a +9.5 underdog and is +300 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 59.5 total points.
Here’s my USC vs. Oregon prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
USC vs Oregon Prediction
- USC vs. Oregon Pick: Oregon Team Total Over 34.5 · Jordon Davison 2+ TDs
My Oregon vs. USC best bet is on the Ducks to go over their team total and running back Jordon Davison to score two touchdowns. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
USC vs Oregon Odds
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -108 | 59.5 -108o / -112u | +300 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -112 | 59.5 -108o / -112u | -380 |
- USC vs Oregon Spread: Oregon -9.5, USC +9.5
- USC vs Oregon Over/Under: 59.5 Points
- USC vs Oregon Moneyline: USC +300, Oregon -380
USC vs Oregon College Football Betting Preview
USC Trojans Betting Preview: Concerning Injuries in Defense
Head coach Lincoln Riley pulled off the home victory over Iowa last week despite a 45% post-game win expectancy. The Hawkeyes posted a 67% Success Rate on 33 rushing attempts, beating USC in the yards-per-play battle.
Southern California did win the turnover battle while creating two or more first downs on 6-of-9 offensive possessions. The ground game was integral to the victory, as Bryan Jackson was used almost exclusively for two red-zone rushing touchdowns.
USC was carved up on the ground by Iowa, falling to 128th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 130th in Defensive Line Yards.
Defensive tackle Keeshawn Silver could be a critical loss this week after exiting the Iowa game and heading to the locker room following a brief stint in the medical tent.
The Trojans own subpar numbers in defending any run concept with a negative EPA against zone read attempts. However, defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn's bunch doesn't give up explosives, with his 2-4-5 scheme ranking 11th in Rush EPA allowed.
The strength of the defense comes in the secondary, owning top-30 rankings in Passing Success Rate allowed, Pass EPA allowed and creating a contested catch.
Bishop Fitzgerald has been one of the best safeties in the nation in terms of coverage grading, producing five interceptions and a trio of pass breakups.
Both Fitzgerald and Kamari Ramsey checked out of the Iowa game with injury, and both will be critical pieces against Oregon in Week 13.
Oregon Ducks Betting Preview: Rush Defense Needs to Step Up
Head coach Dan Lanning survived a trip to Kinnick Stadium with a win over Iowa despite multiple injuries and Midwest weather.
Injuries have been the concern over the past two weeks of conference play, as wideout Dakorien Moore and slot Gary Bryant Jr. each missed the Ducks' victory over Minnesota.
Lanning has been adamant that Moore, who leads the team in targets and yards per route run, will be OK but didn't specify a timeline.
Quarterback Dante Moore did find 10 different targets against Minnesota, as tight end Kenyon Sadiq stole the highlights.
Oregon has struggled to contain the opposing rush all season, recently allowing Minnesota to produce a 67% Success Rate on 21 carries. The Ducks fall to 48th in defensive rush efficiency, with a mid-FBS Success Rate against most run concepts.
The biggest red flag in the rush defense comes against teams using inside zone with two-tight end personnel.
The question remains whether USC will go this route on the ground. So far this season, the Trojans have utilized inside zone with 12 personnel on 54 carries for a high 63% Success Rate.
USC vs Oregon Pick, Betting Analysis
With injuries abundant for both teams, the most critical may come in the secondary for the USC defense.
The Trojans are one of the best tackling teams in the country, ranking 15th in PFF tackle grading and broken tackles allowed. However, backup strong safety Christian Pierce subbed in for Fitzgerald and immediately missed three tackles against Iowa.
With the emergence of Sadiq and the potential return of Moore and Bryant at wideout, Oregon's offense could be at full strength to create explosives at the second level.
Those aspects only encompass Oregon's passing game, but running backs Noah Whittington and Jordon Davison should produce numerous 10-plus yard gains on inside zone carries.
The USC defense has been poor against all run concepts. Davison has become the workhorse option for Oregon with 12 rushing touchdowns on the season.
The Trojans will have the ability to gash the Oregon defense on the ground, but running back Waymond Jordan is once again expected to sit out the trip to Eugene with an injury.
Backup King Miller did see a decline in his numbers against Iowa, lowering his yards after contact to just 2.2 while generating only one explosive run.
Quarterback Jayden Maiava should get the offense moving, but the Ducks have specialized in shutting down opposing passing attacks through quarters coverage.
Pick: Oregon Team Total Over 34.5 · Jordon Davison 2+ TDs (+295)
USC vs Oregon Betting Trends
