The Utah State Aggies take on the Utah Utes in Salt Lake City, Utah, on Saturday, Sept. 19. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
Utah is favored by -27.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -5000. Utah State, meanwhile, enters as a +27.5 underdog and is +2000 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 56.5 total points.
Here’s my Utah State vs. Utah prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 19.
Utah State vs Utah Prediction
- Utah State vs. Utah Pick: Utah Team Total Over 41.5 (-125)
My Utah vs. Utah State best bet is on the Utes to go over their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Utah State vs Utah Odds
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+27.5 -105 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +2000 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-27.5 -115 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -5000 |
- Utah State vs Utah point spread: Utah State +27.5 (-105), Utah -27.5 (-115)
- Utah State vs Utah over/under: 56.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Utah State vs Utah moneyline: Utah State +2000, Utah -5000
Utah State vs Utah College Football Preview
Utah State Aggies Betting Preview: Need to Get Back Into Form
After a late flurry, Utah State fell just short in its effort to upset Washington, losing to the Huskies, 14-16.
Grady Brosterhous’ inability to take care of the ball kept the Aggies from getting over the hump, as he threw three back-breaking interceptions while completing just 60.7% of his passes.
The lack of production they receive from their quarterback has been an issue since the start of the season, kicking off their campaign ranked outside the top 100 in Success Rate, Finishing Drives and Havoc allowed.
When they can't create an explosive play, the Aggies struggle to cut the distance in half, lowering their probability of converting on later downs.
Unfortunately for Utah State, its defense hasn't fared much better, trickling down to the bottom half of the board in Success Rate allowed while ranking near dead last in Havoc.
The front seven has played a major role in its slow start, allowing opponents to reach the second level of their defense at a high rate because it lacks pressure in the trenches.
While a close loss to Washington seems encouraging on paper, the result tells us more about the Huskies than the Aggies when you look at their current metrics on both sides of the ball.
With Utah on deck, Brosterhous will need to quickly get back into form or risk falling behind quickly on the scoreboard with no hope of clawing their way out of a deficit.
Utah Utes Betting Preview: High-Ceiling Offense
Even under a new regime, Devon Dampier has kept Utah competitive, leading the Utes to top-35 marks in Success Rate, Finishing Drives, Explosiveness and Havoc allowed.
Dampier’s dual-threat abilities were on full display in the Utes' Week 2 matchup against Arkansas, throwing for 261 yards and two touchdowns while adding another 50 yards and two scores with his legs.
When Dampier can extend plays with his legs, it forces opponents to commit to spying their linebackers, creating more space on the outside for the Utes' pass-catchers to take advantage.
The protection Dampier gets from his offensive line also gives his wideouts more time to break away from their assignments, widening his passing lanes.
With Utah thriving through the air, running back Wayshawn Parker has hit the ground running, averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
When both facets of the offense play at a high level, the Utes can set a scoring pace too fast for opponents to keep up with, making it easier to pull away on the scoreboard.
That's especially true with Utah also excelling on defense, fielding a group near the top of the board in Success Rate allowed, EPA allowed, Finishing Drives allowed, Havoc and hard stops.
If the Utes can cut down on the number of explosive plays they allow, they'll be a well-rounded contender capable of competing for the Big 12 title.
Utah State vs Utah Pick, Betting Analysis
With the Aggies lacking the talent up front needed to pressure Dampier, their back end will get picked apart, allowing the Utes to move the ball down the field at a consistent rate.
When in scoring position, expect points to be put up on the board, ambushing a defense that grades out poorly in Finishing Drives allowed.
In the rare instance Utah State collapses the pocket and flushes Dampier to the outside, the Utes quarterback can extend plays with his legs, keeping them in a favorable position to stay ahead of the sticks.
On the other side of the ball, Utah will continue to generate pressure and create disruptions at a high rate, forcing the Aggies into early outs.
By getting the ball back in Dampier’s hands quickly, the Utes will see an uptick in scoring opportunities, which will result in points on the board.
With Utah’s team total ranging anywhere from 41.5 to 43.5, it’s vital to bet the over at no higher than the key number of 42. If the spread also dips to a flat -27 before kickoff, diversify your risk by placing a smaller wager on the Utes to cover the number.
Pick: Utah Team Total Over 41.5 (-125)
Utah State vs Utah Betting Trends
