Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Odds, Prediction, Pick | College Football Betting Preview (Saturday, Nov. 25)
Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Milton.
It's time to dive into the Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Odds, Prediction, Pick for this SEC rivalry on Saturday, Nov. 25.
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Odds, Prediction, Pick
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-27 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -5000 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+27 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +1400 |
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The battle for Tennessee takes place on Saturday afternoon as Vanderbilt travels to Knoxville to take on UT and close out SEC play.
Vanderbilt (2-9) has not won a game since Week 2 against Alabama A&M. The Commodores, 1-10 against the spread, have gone over in seven games this season, but have gone under in their last three.
Tennessee (7-4) is riding a two-game losing streak. The Volunteers are 5-5-1 against the spread and have gone under in six games, including each of their last two games.
The weather should be perfect at kickoff. Temperatures are expected to range from 49-53 degrees with no rain in the forecast. Winds will range from 3.0 to 3.2 miles per hour. If this forecast holds true, the weather should have no impact on the game.
Coach Clark Lea's third season is a step back from the growth he showed in Year 2.
Vanderbilt is scoring 22.7 points per game and averages 5.2 yards per play. The Commodores have a 37% success rate and score 4.11 points per opportunity. One major struggle for this offense is their 23% havoc rate allowed, which ranks 132nd nationally.
Whether it's game script or game plan, Vanderbilt ranks 20th in passing play rate at 55%. The Commodores attempt an average of 32.5 pass attempts per game.
Ken Seals has taken over the starting quarterback job from AJ Swann. He is completing 57.6% of his passes for an average of 6.6 yards per attempt. He's thrown for 1,122 yards, 10 touchdowns, and four interceptions. As a team, they have a 36% passing success rate and they average 3.9 passes over 20 yards per game.
The Commodores average 29 rush attempts per game and 3.3 yards per carry. Sedrick Alexander and Patrick Smith have 85 and 70 carries, respectively, and have combined for 625 rushing yards. The team has a 39% rushing success rate. The offensive line generates 2.89 line yards per attempt and has allowed a 19.2% stuff rate.
Despite Lea's defensive focus in his prior coaching stops, the defense has been a struggle for the Commodores. They allow 35.1 points per game and 6.4 yards per play.
Opponents have averaged a 44% success rate and scored 4.04 points per opportunity. Vanderbilt ranks 101st in havoc rate at just 15%.
To make matters worse, the Commodores rank 125th in average starting field position.
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Josh Heupel's third season was always going to struggle to reach the highs of Year 2, but he has Tennessee sitting at 7-4 and in third place in the SEC East. The Vols would likely be ranked in the final regular-season AP poll with a win.
The Volunteers are averaging 30.0 points per game and 6.5 yards per play. They have a 45% success rate and score 3.42 points per opportunity. They allow havoc on just 13% of plays.
Despite the physical tools, Joe Milton hasn't been a perfect replacement for Hendon Hooker. He's completing 64.5% of his passes for an average of 7.6 yards per attempt. He's thrown for 2,430 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Tennessee has a 45% passing success rate and averages 2.36 20+ yard passes per game.
The Vols run the ball on 52% of their plays and average 36.6 attempts per game. Jaylen Wright leads the offense with 126 carries, but the team has four ball carriers with more than 70 carries this season.
The Vols are averaging 5.6 yards per carry and have a 46% rushing success rate. The offensive line generates 3.3 line yards per attempt and has allowed a 12.5% stuff rate.
Tennessee's defense is generally average across the board, allowing 21.8 points per game and 5.1 yards per play. The Vols allow a 38% success rate and 3.34 points per opportunity. They generate havoc on 18% of plays. On average, they allow 4.27 plays over 20 yards per game.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Vanderbilt and Tennessee match up statistically:
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 121 | 14 | |
| Line Yards | 84 | 14 | |
| Pass Success | 112 | 54 | |
| Havoc | 97 | 15 | |
| Finishing Drives | 49 | 33 | |
| Quality Drives | 109 | 48 |
Tennessee Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 40 | 52 | |
| Line Yards | 28 | 62 | |
| Pass Success | 44 | 120 | |
| Havoc | 9 | 96 | |
| Finishing Drives | 102 | 93 | |
| Quality Drives | 83 | 129 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 102 | 51 |
| PFF Coverage | 122 | 41 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 74 | 46 |
| Middle 8 | 125 | 26 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.5 (78) | 21.5 (3) |
| Rush Rate | 47.1% (115) | 54.0% (56) |
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee
Betting Pick & Prediction
Tennessee is favored by 26.5 after the line opened at 25. Approximately 92% of the bets are backing the Vols and 99% of the money is on the favorite. According to the Pro Report, sharp money has been tracked on Tennessee as well.
While the number is beginning to reach a point that pushes my comfort level, my preferred play is on Tennessee to cover. My numbers have this game closer to 31 so I'm still confident at 27, despite the line movement.
Pick: Tennessee -26.5 (Play to -28)
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