If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
This week's midweek CUSAction continues on Wednesday with two more games.
Our college football experts, Joshua Nunn and Road to CFB, came through with two picks for Middle Tennessee vs. Kennesaw State and New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State on Wednesday.
Let's dive into their Wednesday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for October 28.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
Wednesday College Football Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Wednesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Middle Tennessee vs. Kennesaw State Pick
By Joshua Nunn
This game opened with Middle Tennessee listed as a short 2.5-point favorite with a total between 49.5 and 51.5. I like the under at 51 or better.
Both Kennesaw State and MTSU rank in the top 35 nationally in preventing explosive plays on defense. These secondaries are great at taking away the opposition's primary receiving option and forcing underneath throws and checkdowns.
I'm not convinced this changes in this game, so we should see methodical passing on both sides.
Collins has made poor decisions this year once Kennesaw State crosses midfield as if he's pressing and playing tight. The team has really struggled in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 50% of trips against FBS competition.
Part of the equation is factoring in the head coaches' decision-making, and Mack has made puzzling decisions in both play-calling and fourth-down decisions over the last two weeks.
I could see a poor coaching decision directly costing Kennesaw State points in the red zone at least once here.
The Owls defense has played decent football and will create problems for MTSU in the red zone.
The Blue Raiders have a reliable field-goal operation with kicker Dominic Bourgeois, who has made 10-of-11 attempts this season. That's key because MTSU has settled for field goals in the red zone often.
I could see this one turning into a slower-paced defensive battle in which the winning team fails to score more than 24 points.
I want 51 or better, as this is a key number in the totals and has been a key number many times this season.
Pick: Under 51
| |
New Mexico State vs. Jacksonville State Pick
By RoadToCFB
There’s a clear buy line for Wednesday night. Jacksonville State -2.5 and New Mexico State +3.5 have been short-lived popular bets, moving as soon as they appear. The total was also bet up from 48.5 to 49.5, where it lay dormant most of the week.
If we were able to assume sound play-calling and coaching, New Mexico State would make an intriguing side this week.
Conference USA teams on the road during midweek play (Tuesday-Thursday) have gone 3-10-1 ATS since Week 5, though teams went 2-2 last week.
But we’ve seen enough Yost this year to know it’s foolish to assume sound coaching.
Jacksonville State’s defense has survived on two things: early-down success and keeping explosive plays to a minimum. That’s where it matches up well against NMSU, which looks to Jones early in drives and abandons him late.
Jax State is poor on late downs, but late downs are where offensive coordinator David Yost puts the ball into quarterback Adam Damante's hands most.
The Aggies defense has played well, allowing a touchdown on just 22% of opposing drives (45th), but it’s not a defense quick to force punts (22.1% three-and-out rate forced, 86th).
Expect Jacksonville State to sustain some offensive drives here and drain the clock, while New Mexico State's offense continues to struggle at home.
NMSU’s 30 points last week were flukey, set up largely by short fields. Otherwise, this has been a dead-nut team total under team.
Pick: New Mexico State Team Total Under 23.5 or Better
