Week 11 rolls on, and I've got three 'dogs circled for the afternoon slate.
I'll be backing Miner Nation against Jacksonville State. I'll also be backing UConn as a double-digit home dog against Duke. Finally, I'll be (reluctantly) backing the Hawkeyes against the Ducks.
Read on for our NCAAF Week 11 predictions, and check out all of my Week 11 spots here.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3 p.m. | UTEP +1 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Iowa +6 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | UConn +10.5 |
UTEP +1 vs. Jacksonville State
3 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
In my opinion, UTEP is one of the most undervalued Group of 5 teams right now.
For starters, the Miners boast one of the top non-Power Conference defenses in the country. Adjusted for opponent, only San Diego State has a better EPA Per Play than UTEP.
The problem for UTEP has been the offense, which has been absolutely dreadful for most of the season.
However, I do think that side of the ball is trending up after the Miners moved on from Malachi Nelson, the worst statistical quarterback in the country.
Just take a look at the difference between Nelson (a walking pick-six) and new starter Skyler Locklear:
- Nelson: 54% completion rate, 8.9 aDOT, 5.9% turnover-worthy play rate, 66.8 Rating
- Locklear: 60% completion rate, 10.1 aDOT, 3.7% turnover-worthy play rate, 80.3 Rating
In its most recent game before the bye week with Locklear at the helm, UTEP likely should have beaten Kennesaw State (one of the two best teams in the conference, along with WKU) if not for some criminal officiating and 16 non-offensive points surrendered in the first half (the only points it allowed over the first 30 minutes).
Meanwhile, this is a prime opportunity to sell high on the Gamecocks, who might also get caught peaking ahead to a showdown with Kennesaw State next week in a battle of undefeated teams in league play for first place in Conference USA.
TCU transfer running back Cam Cook has been a revelation for Jacksonville State, but we do need to pump the brakes a bit on a team that has the following five wins across one of the nation's easiest schedules to date:
- Murray State
- Liberty, when the Flames were a mess, but still finished with a 534-390 yardage edge
- Middle Tennessee by 3 (trailed multiple times in the fourth quarter)
- Sam Houston by 2 on a walk-off 52-yard field goal (also trailed going into the fourth)
A reeling Delaware team by 13
Delaware essentially gifted the Gamecocks an early 21-0 lead with a pair of short fields and a defensive touchdown. The Blue Hens still finished with 68 more net yards, but couldn't overcome a 1-for-5 performance on fourth downs and a -2 turnover margin.
It's worth noting that even with a slightly more difficult schedule, UTEP still has a superior net yards per play edge on the year.
I do expect an entirely focused effort from the Miners, who still have an outside shot of bowl eligibility with a straightforward remaining schedule. Their defense can contain Cook, who's the entire Jacksonville State offense.
Jax State also has a minimal passing attack with new signal-caller Caden Creel, who has no Big-Time Throws and three Turnover-Worthy Plays since taking over under center.
Locklear can do enough on offense against a suspect Jacksonville State defense to get the job done. And if there's any team in the country that's due for a few bounces (-8 turnover margin) or calls, it's the Miners.
Pick: UTEP +1 or Better
Iowa +6 vs. Oregon
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
This boils down to whether you believe Oregon is super elite (top five).
If you do hold that sentiment, you may like the Ducks here at under a touchdown, as I'm sure some do.
However, I'm not in that camp and project the line closer to four.
I still maintain that the Ducks are a year away and need to see Dante Moore prove he can get the job done down-to-down against an elite defense.
Whenever this Oregon offense has faced a defense with a pulse, it's looked rather pedestrian. Keep in mind that both of these teams hosted Indiana. Oregon was not in a position to pull off the upset, while Iowa was.
We all thought Moore had arrived in Happy Valley earlier this season, but that turned out to be more about Penn State than anything else. In fact, scoring only 17 points in regulation was disappointing in retrospect.
Now, he'll go up against a top-five defense that won't allow any explosives and sits top-two in that department almost every season. That will force Moore to stay patient and methodically work the ball down the field without making any key mistakes against Iowa's zone-heavy defense.
Some other factors are working in Iowa's favor, including the weather. It's going to be cold and windy, with the potential for serious precipitation. That certainly favors the Hawkeyes' style of play.
Under transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski, Iowa continues to improve offensively every week, but the passing attack remains subpar.
However, the Hawkeyes can certainly run the ball behind an outstanding offensive line, which is the exact route you want to take against an Oregon defense that just isn't creating many negative plays.
Lastly, Iowa will also have a significant special teams edge. To nobody's surprise, Kirk Ferentz once again has the best special teams in the nation.
Never sleep on the third phase in an Iowa game. It could ultimately decide this Big Ten showdown.
Pick: Iowa +6 or Better
UConn +10.5 vs. Duke
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
Here's a fun trivia question. Name the only five teams that haven't lost a game in regulation in 2025.
If you said UConn as one of those five, you'd be correct (along with Louisville, Indiana, Ohio State, and Texas A&M). The Huskies have three losses on the season, but all three came in overtime.
They've been much friskier than I had anticipated coming into the season after some of the losses they suffered on both sides of the ball.
It's just a very well-coached team under Jim Mora and Matt Brock, one of the most unheralded defensive coordinators in the country.
Led by quarterback Joseph Fagnano (who has 25 touchdowns and no interceptions!), this UConn offense should find success against a struggling (and shorthanded) Duke secondary that ranks in the bottom 20 nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed.
Adjusting for opponent, the Blue Devils' defense rates as a bottom-10 Power 4 unit overall.
Duke can get pressure under Manny Diaz as usual, but UConn's offensive line has done an outstanding job in pass protection with the fifth-lowest pressure rate allowed.
Fagnano has also done a fantastic job in limiting negative plays.
The Blue Devils are an inferior tackling team as well, which has caused significant issues after the catch. The Huskies are ideally suited to take full advantage.
The Duke offense will undoubtedly put up its fair share of points. Quarterback Darian Mensah, whose 25:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio isn't too shabby either, has had a fantastic first season in Durham.
However, the UConn defense has been much stronger against the pass. The Huskies can generate pressure and mix up coverages extremely well on the back end to confuse opposing signal-callers.
The run defense is pretty porous (especially against mobile quarterbacks), but Mensah doesn't really run in a very pass-heavy offense.
Most importantly, this is just an atrocious situational spot for Duke. How focused will it be to travel up north for a November nonconference game following a last-second, miraculous (7% post-game win expectancy) road win over Clemson?
The Blue Devils also host Virginia next week in a game that will likely determine their ACC title chances. As a result, this game really doesn't mean much.
Staying healthy and escaping with a win would certainly suffice for Diaz and company, but don't sleep on the Huskies having a shot to pull off this upset. They did go down to Durham last year and played Duke super close, losing 26-21.
Pick: UConn +10.5 or Better
