Saturday's Week 3 college football slate features plenty of under-the-radar matchups that may not get the coverage they deserve.
With that said, I decided to dive into five of those matchups on Saturday: Wagner vs. Cal, Western Kentucky vs. Indiana, FIU vs. FAU, Georgia Southern vs. Jacksonville State and North Dakota vs. Nebraska.
Let's take a look at my Week 3 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Saturday, September 12.
Wagner vs Cal Pick
| Wagner Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+58.5 -115 | 65.5 -105o / -115u | |
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-58.5 -105 | 65.5 -105o / -115u | |
Wagner plays in one of the weaker FCS leagues in the NEC, and the team isn't built to compete with many of the opponents who reside in their conference, let alone back-to-back road games against FBS-level competition.
The offense is way behind its peers, which we saw play out in the opener at home against Robert Morris, where the Seahawks registered just six total first downs and 97 total yards. In fact, their only score came on an interception return touchdown.
Last week, Wagner put two drives together against James Madison. One resulted in a successful field goal, and the other a failed fourth-down attempt. The Seahawks lost the game, 87-3, and are now traveling to Cal this week.
The Bears are coming off a hard-fought win at Syracuse in a game Cal likely had zero business winning. The team hosts Clemson next week, and I could see the Bears using this game to get everyone on the roster some playing time.
This is a hard one to want to get involved with, but I would lean toward the under of 65.5.
Pick: Under 65. 5 (Lean)
Western Kentucky vs Indiana Pick
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+44.5 -105 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +8000 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-44.5 -115 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | |
Western Kentucky has to be about out of gas after playing its season opener in Reno, Nevada, getting blown out, and then going to Georgia last week in a game where it gave up 70 points.
Now, the road tour concludes with a trip to defending national champion Indiana, which has scored 50-plus points in back-to-back games.
The Toppers can't stop the run, giving up 557 yards on the ground the last two weeks while allowing 7.2 yards per carry.
The defensive front hasn't registered a sack, and only five tackles for loss have been notched.
I don’t love the quarterback situation for Western Kentucky, and I don’t think the Tops do either, as Rodney Tisdale Jr. and Brock Glenn have split reps with neither quarterback being overly efficient.
Indiana has been incredibly efficient while scoring 15 touchdowns and converting 63% on third down in wins over North Texas and Howard. All this team has to do is line up and hand the ball off, and drives will end up in the end zone.
Curt Cignetti has such a well-oiled team that's buttoned up in all three phases. Indiana has run the ball on 70% of its offensive snaps this season, and I suspect that we will see heavy run action and a slow pace. I would look at a second-half under.
Pick: 2H Under 24.5 (Lean)
FIU vs FAU Pick
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -106 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
| FL Atlantic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -114 | 62.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
This will be an incredible game between two emerging G6 programs, and I think we could see points in this matchup.
Florida International really struggled with Buffalo's passing game in the second half last week, and the secondary could get torched by Caden Veltkamp.
A trio of receivers has made this Owl offense very explosive, with Easton Messer, Kelby Valsin and Dominique Henry each racking up 12 or more receptions this season. All three have also found the end zone, and each of them could score in this game.
FAU still has deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball, and the Owls' stop unit grades out as the second-worst tackling team in FBS, per PFF. This defense is giving up over eight yards per play and nearly seven yards per rushing attempt.
I like how the FIU running backs, Anthony Carrie and Devonte Lyons, run the ball, and quarterback JJ Kohl has thrown the ball really well the first two weeks.
FAU's red-zone offense has been better this season, but the red-zone defense has still allowed touchdowns on all nine trips against the defense this season.
The Owls are going to throw the ball around the yard, but I think FIU can match score for score. If we see a +7 flash on gameday, I'll look to add FIU to the card.
Pick: FIU +7 (Target)
Georgia Southern vs Jacksonville State Pick
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 52.5 -112o / -108u | +132 |
| Jacksonville State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -102 | 52.5 -112o / -108u | -162 |
Georgia Southern has actually played pretty decent defensive football the first two weeks of the season. An opening-game shutout against FCS-level Charleston Southern was encouraging.
Perhaps more surprisingly was the fact that this GATA defense held Clemson to just one touchdown in five red-zone trips, as the Tigers settled for five field goals overall in a 22-7 slugfest.
The Havoc showed up here as well. The front registered a pair of sacks and made 11 tackles for loss on the road in Death Valley.
This is a tough third assignment for Georgia Southern, now having to travel to Jacksonville State, which has to be fuming from the way its game shook out against Ohio last week.
The Gamecocks are also playing with revenge from a game they lost last season against the Eagles.
Jacksonville State has not yet played its best football, and I think the market has started to overvalue Georgia Southern based on its stout defensive performance against a Clemson team that is lost offensively right now.
This is a spot where I want to back Jacksonville State at -3 or better.
Pick: Jacksonville State -3 or Better (Lean)
North Dakota vs Nebraska Pick
| North Dakota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+25.5 -110 | 52.5 -114o / -106u | +1600 |
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-25.5 -110 | 52.5 -114o / -106u | -4500 |
Nebraska will score a bunch of points against FCS North Dakota.
The Fighting Hawks are down a couple of starting defensive linemen, and while the unit has good depth for the FCS level, the talent disparity could show up here against a Huskers offense that has shown a renewed commitment to running the ball.
Jamal Rule has averaged over nine yards per attempt, and Mekhi Nelson and Isaiah Mozee have also shared some of the workload.
North Dakota has played three overmatched opponents thus far in Long Island, St. Thomas and Portland State, and yet, UND has given up 23.3 points and over 300 yards per game.
Some of the production surrendered has occurred in garbage time, but there's a real chance this defense gives up a ton of explosive plays in this game. Nebraska should find the red zone six times or more.
UND has deployed a run-heavy attack primarily in the second half due to salting games.
Quarterback Jerry Kaminski will likely throw the ball around the yard, however, and North Dakota has three capable playmakers on the outside. Korey Tai has four touchdown catches already and is averaging 22.8 yards per reception, and the Hawks love Deng Deng, who has a large frame and catch radius.
I wouldn't be stunned to see UND score 17 or more points in this game. So long as Nebraska cashes in while in the red zone, this game should go over the posted total of 52.5.
Pick: Over 52.5 (Lean)
