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As I do every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday's college football card.
Ultimately, my primary goal here is to discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each game, hopefully helping you make more informed wagers.
I write most of these up after betting them, and I log them in the Action App immediately, so make sure you're following along there for plays early in the week that may move.
It was ugly last week, as I finished 4-9. Yes, a few more coin-flips in the fourth quarter went the other way, but I also got one of the luckiest covers of the week with Temple. It was just a poorly handicapped card.
I generally have one cold stretch every football season, so please don't bet over your head. Hopefully, it's just a one-week blip and we can get back on track this week, but that's certainly not guaranteed in this gig.
I have highlighted my 10 favorite spots for Week 11.
- 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
- 2026: 53-42-2 (55.8%)
- Overall: 276-220-5 (55.6%)
Time to dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Saturday, Nov. 14.
College Football Predictions, Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 12 p.m. | SMU +1 | |
| 12:45 p.m. | Vanderbilt +17.5 | |
| 2 p.m. | Rice -135 | |
| 3 p.m. | Texas A&M +1H +1.5 | |
| 3:30 p.m. | Boston College +30 | |
| 4:15 p.m. | Oklahoma +1 | |
| 7 p.m. | Penn State -8.5 | |
| 7:30 p.m. | Arizona +2.5 | |
| 7:30 p.m. | LSU -3.5 | |
| 7:45 p.m. | Arkansas +7.5 |
SMU +1 vs. Wake Forest
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Wake Forest has been absolutely incredible this season, which led to a well-deserved extension for head coach Jake Dickert. The Demon Deacons haven't just been winning games; they've been absolutely dismantling teams.
In fact, they've covered seven straight games with an insane average cover margin of nearly 24 points!
Dickert deserves a ton of credit, as does quarterback Gio Lopez, who has played nearly flawless football all season after reuniting with his old offensive coordinator, Rob Ezell.
With that said, if you know me at all, you know I've been waiting to sell high on this team, and this looks like the perfect opportunity.
I just can't get to Wake Forest laying points on the road at SMU, which has played much better football in Dallas under quarterback Kevin Jennings, who has a ridiculous 49:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio in home games.
That's in a different stratosphere compared to his pedestrian 31:25 ratio away from home.
Wake Forest will play a high rate of zone to take away explosive plays through the air while trying to generate pressure up front.
Well, SMU has an elite offensive line that can handle the Wake front, and Jennings is fully capable of finding the holes in the Wake Forest zone to move the ball down the field with relative ease.
On the other side of the ball, SMU's defense generates pressure at a top-20 rate nationally. That could pose problems for Lopez (who's dealing with a recent injury that will likely force him to wear a brace on Saturday, which could potentially limit his mobility a bit) behind an offensive line that will allow pressure and will be without its starting left tackle for this contest.
That's certainly noteworthy for a team that has had almost no injury issues all season.
Structurally, SMU can also limit explosive passing plays, which is key against Lopez and star wide receiver Carlos Hernandez, who will have a tougher matchup in the slot than he does most weeks in the ACC.
While no doubt impressive, keep in mind this Wake Forest team did need overtime to win at Purdue earlier this season.
And following a loss against Miami (which certainly has holes on defense), it has faced the following defenses during its seven-game winning streak:
- Louisville
- Stanford
- NC State
- California
- Virginia
- Merrimack
This is obviously a step up in class for the Wake Forest offense, which hasn't faced much resistance for two months.
I'm selling high on the Deacs and buying the upside of this SMU team at home, especially since I like matchup and believe the Mustangs will have a substantial edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
I think the Mustangs get revenge for last year's last-second loss at Wake Forest in a result that ultimately kept them out of the ACC Championship game.
In home conference games, head coach Rhett Lashlee boasts an impressive 14-6 ATS record (70%), covering by an average of over nine points per game.
Pick: SMU +1 (Play to PK)

Vanderbilt +17.5 vs. Alabama
12:45 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
This is a vicious situational spot for the Tide following their monumental upset win at LSU last weekend.
That all but locked up their ticket to the College Football Playoff with a very easy remaining schedule that includes Chattanooga, Auburn and this week's road date with Vandy.
Vandy also profiles as an attractive larger underdog under this staff, which will look to shorten this game at all costs by limiting the number of overall possessions.
Look for Vandy to play slower and to take all of the underneath stuff that Kane Wommack's defense will allow. We've also seen Alabama struggle as a larger road favorite under Kalen DeBoer in recent seasons.
The Commodore defense will be overmatched from a talent standpoint, but they do a pretty decent job of limiting explosive passing plays and bringing pressure, which are both required boxes you must check to slow down Alabama's potent offense.
Plus, star quarterback Keelon Russell is dealing with a bit of an ankle injury, so he may not run as frequently in this particular game. You could also see a quicker hook with a bigger lead, which could open up the backdoor if needed.
Additionally, the Alabama staff has also talked about how they must improve their rushing attack, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Tide go a bit heavier with the run game in Nashville, which would obviously help shorten the game and give Vandy a better shot at keeping this within the number.
It's been a disappointing season for Vanderbilt, but this can serve as a bit of a Super Bowl (expect a trick play or two), while I'm not sold that we get a fully locked-in Alabama squad following that win at LSU.
Plus, I imagine we might eventually see some negative turnover regression for Alabama. The Tide lead the nation with an absurd +52 net EPA from turnovers. For reference, Louisiana Tech ranks second at +41, and Vanderbilt sits outside the top 90 at -7.5.
At Alabama, head coach Kalen DeBoer has gone just 1-4 ATS as a double-digit road favorite, failing to cover by a whopping 15.8 points per game, with the only cover coming at Wisconsin in a game the Badgers lost their starting quarterback to injury on the first drive.
He has actually lost three of those five games straight up, including one in a similar spot at Vanderbilt two years ago as a 23.5-point favorite.
Pick: Vanderbilt +17.5 or Better
Rice ML -135 vs. Tulane
2 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Where is this Tulane team at mentally? The Green Wave, who made the College Football Playoff last year, just lost by 50 points to Tulsa following a miraculous win over lowly Charlotte.
They now sit at 4-5 on the season and head down to Rice in a very sleepy spot, especially with first-place North Texas coming to New Orleans next week.
Does head coach Will Hall rally the troops for a road game against 1-8 Rice? I certainly don't trust him.
This is also a poor matchup for Tulane. Rice is an option team that's now utilizing both of its quarterbacks on the field at times, similar to Utah.
The Owls are one of the most run-heavy teams in the country, which could spell trouble for a Tulane defense that has struggled to defend the run all year (130th in rush yards allowed per game).
The Tulane offense also has no real redeeming qualities and is now dealing with offensive line injuries, which could lead to an even higher frequency of negative plays, which the Rice defense does excel at creating.
I think we get a spirited effort from the Owls, who are looking for their first FBS victory of the season.
While it's been a disappointing season, they've performed better than their record.
They lost by seven at home to Western Michigan and actually outgained Fresno State on the road in what was a competitive game in the fourth quarter. They also lost by two points twice on the road at FAU (80% post-game win expectancy) and at home vs. UTSA — two quality American opponents.
Meanwhile, Tulane easily could have a few more losses under its belt. Let's take a look at its wins this season:
- South Alabama by 4 (outgained by 50)
- Southern Miss by 3 (trailed in the fourth quarter, when they benefited from multiple Golden Eagle missed field goals)
- Memphis (impressive win but benefited from six turnovers in a game they were outgained, 488-325)
- Charlotte in overtime (tied the game on the final play of regulation)
Color me less than impressed.
Ultimately, I have the Owls power-rated ahead of the Green Wave and like the scheduling spot and matchup for the desperate home team laying under a field goal.
For what it's worth, I do prefer the moneyline over laying the small number they could clear with a late field goal, as the chances of that happening are pretty slim considering Rice has one of the worst field-goal operations in the country this season.
Rice has gone 48-32-4 ATS (60.0%) in home conference games since 2005. Over that span, only Kansas State and Wake Forest have been more profitable in that spot.
Pick: Rice ML -135 or Better
Texas A&M 1H +1.5 vs. Tennessee
3 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
I'd love to get a 3 with the Aggies, which I'm patiently waiting on, as this is a potential trap game for the Vols, who just picked up an enormous home win over Kentucky last week.
While the final score looked impressive, that result was a bit misleading. It was just, 13-6, in the fourth quarter in a game where the Vols benefited from all of the fourth-down and turnover fortune.
Now, they must head down to College Station to take on a struggling Aggies team before hosting LSU in what could end up being a quasi-playoff game.
They may not be fully locked in here for only their third true road game of the season. For what it's worth, they lost at South Carolina and needed to come back in the fourth quarter at Arkansas in the previous two.
While I'm still waiting for the all-important 3 to pup on the full game, I did play some Texas A&M first half.
It's been a disappointing season for head coach Mike Elko, who will not be returning to the CFP in 2026. The offensive line just hasn't been able to replace all of the lost production from last season, which has negatively impacted quarterback Marcel Reed, who has struggled as a passer.
The defense still has some juice, but that side of the ball eventually collapses late in games without much help from the offense.
Additionally, the Aggies become dysfunctional on offense when forced to play from behind late in games due to breakdowns in pass protection and Reed's limitations in known passing situations.
Conversely, Tennessee is a fantastic frontrunner.
It can lean on its dominant ground game to eventually wear opposing defenses down, while defensive coordinator Jim Knowles can unleash his pressure packages to suffocate opponents trying to come from behind in a more pass-heavy game script.

The path for A&M is simple here: rely on a raucous crowd and its ground game early on while playing the field-position game and not putting its defense in unfavorable positions.
It has a much better chance of doing that throughout the first half, especially if Tennessee comes out a bit flat.
The numbers also bear that out. Despite being just 1-5 in SEC play, Texas A&M is only a -2 in the first half of league games. The 4-2 Vols have performed only slightly better at +6.
However, in the second half, it's a completely different story, where Tennessee owns a +50 point differential compared to the Aggies' almost perfectly inverse of -49.
In three of their losses, the Aggies were either tied or trailed by one at the break against Alabama, Kentucky and South Carolina. And believe it or not, Texas A&M has actually averaged more first-half points (10.0) in conference play than the Vols (9.8).
Based on the matchup, it's just difficult to envision the Aggies coming from too far behind to win this game. It's paramount they get off to a fast start.
Tennessee also comes into this game a bit beat up. It won't have its sack leader in Tyree Weathersby, who suffered a serious injury in last week's win over Kentucky. They will also have to shake up the interior of the offensive line without guard Nic Moore, who has really helped shore up the guard position following the loss of Wendell Moe Jr.
Tennessee's rushing attack will also take a bit of a hit without backup Daune Morris, who's averaging a robust 6.6 yards per carry on the season.
This is still a pretty one-dimensional offensive attack that wants to establish the run early, and the Aggies' run defense has been trending up late in the season.
Now, Texas A&M also has a few key injuries. It will be starting a freshman guard following a couple of injuries at the position, and it remains to be seen if star wideout Mario Craver will suit up.
But I do still think it can lean on the ground game early on, which is where you want to attack this terrific Tennessee defense. It also doesn't hurt that Rueben Owens II finally looked like himself last week at South Carolina.
Gig Em.
I am going against a major trend here. Josh Heupel is a ridiculous 28-8-2 ATS (77.8%) in the first half away from home. Only Todd Monken has been more profitable since 2005.
Pick: Texas A&M 1H +1.5 (Play to PK)
Boston College +30 at Notre Dame
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
I contemplated this one for a while since the matchup is so bleak on paper, but I just can't pass up the spot.
Notre Dame is coming off one of the biggest regular-season wins in recent school history. It was a game the Irish had circled for over a year, and it ended up requiring a full 60-minute effort.
I would be absolutely stunned if we don't get a bit of a letdown here.
Additionally, Notre Dame is essentially guaranteed a playoff spot now that it has that win over Miami in its back pocket. What does that mean moving forward? Marcus Freeman no longer has to run up the score late to impress the committee across a soft schedule.
That means you could get a quicker hook on the starters with a bigger lead.
It also means Notre Dame's sole focus should be health for the remainder of the regular season, especially considering it's already extremely beat up on the defensive side of the ball.
The Irish could potentially rest a few ailing starters in this game or at least reduce their workload, which could make life a bit easier for BC, which will also look to shorten this game at all costs — a key reason why head coach Bill O'Brien has fared so well as a larger underdog.
The potential rest is especially true considering Notre Dame has SMU on deck, which is a much more loseable game.
During his time at BC, Bill O'Brien has gone a perfect 8-0 ATS as an underdog of more than two touchdowns, covering by nearly 14 points per game on average. That includes a perfect 5-0 mark in road games.
Pick: Boston College +30 (Play to +28.5)
Oklahoma +1 vs. Ole Miss
4:15 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
I couldn't have been more wrong about last week's playoff rematch between Ole Miss and Georgia. The Rebels got absolutely stomped from start to finish in every facet.
Now, with three losses under their belts and only games against Mississippi State and Wofford remaining over the final two weeks, I don't see a path to the College Football Playoff, which the Ole Miss locker room is likely fully aware of.
There's a reason you're hearing about season-ending injuries and the portal already in Oxford. Do they show up this week in Norman? It's certainly a question worth posing for a team that had national title aspirations.
Even if Ole Miss is fully locked in during practice all week and shows up ready to roll on Saturday, I still would feel confident holding a Sooners ticket.
Let's start with injuries, where these two teams are headed in opposite directions. The Rebels recently learned star running back Kewan Lacy will shut it down for the remainder of the season.
Plus, they will have to make do this week without their best offensive lineman in Patrick Kutas and leading tackler in linebacker Keaton Thomas.
Meanwhile, the Oklahoma offensive line is finally getting back to full strength.
The biggest addition was getting starting left tackle Michael Fasusi back a few weeks ago. There was previously a massive void at left tackle, which has since been filled by the former five-star who finally looked 100% healthy last week at Florida.
Not only will pass protection improve immensely, but the running game should continue to look more competent the rest of the season, especially against an Ole Miss defense that has plenty of holes against the run and pass.
Last week also marked the debut of Oklahoma's new play-caller, Jason Witten. I thought he did a fantastic job with play sequencing, and the entire operation just looked cleaner.
Most importantly, Oklahoma didn't have any turnovers, which have absolutely killed them all season. Witten also unleashed John Mateer with a higher rate of designed runs.
It also helps that Mateer is finally playing with confidence. Earlier in the season, he could barely scramble without literally dropping the ball and was extremely hesitant to fire on his reads. It was as if he almost had the quarterback version of the yips.
With that said, it's not like this offense is going to turn into the 1999 Rams. This is still a team that's led by an elite defense that should get constant pressure on Trinidad Chambliss, especially without Kutas and a backfield that struggles in picking up blitzes.
Chambliss has really struggled against the last two top-tier defenses he faced in Texas and Georgia. This is just not the same offense as last year. Not only is Lacy done for the year, but there's a new play-caller, and the pass-catchers aren't as talented.
As a result, Chambliss' efficiency numbers have fallen precipitously when under pressure. That could spell doom against a Brent Venables stop unit that generates pressure at one of the highest rates in the country.
From a regression standpoint, don't be surprised if Oklahoma falls on a key fumble or two. The Sooners have the lowest fumble recovery rate in the country at 23%, while the Rebels rank 20th in that department at nearly 80%.
This is not my typical buy-low / sell-high spot, as Ole Miss got blown out last week, while Oklahoma pulled off a road upset.
However, I still think this sets up well for the Sooners, who are trending up offensively with a defense that should give Chambliss fits. And I do question whether or not we get a fully locked-in Rebels bunch this week.
Boomer.
Since 2005, Oklahoma is the 11th-most profitable home team against the closing number.
Pick: Oklahoma +1 (Play to -1)
Penn State -8.5 vs. Minnesota
7 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
I'm not sure the Gophers will have much left in the tank for this trip to Happy Valley. Minnesota is coming off three consecutive games vs. top-15 opponents that all came down to the wire.
- vs. Iowa: won on a last-second field goal
- at Indiana: lost in overtime
- vs. UCLA: lost in a game that was tied in the fourth quarter
That's an absolutely draining stretch.
Meanwhile, Penn State has figured some things out following its bye week earlier this month. The Nittany Lions have won back-to-back games with quarterback Rocco Becht looking like his old self again after a brutal midseason stretch.
Additionally, this is just a brutal matchup for Minnesota.
The way to attack this Nittany Lions defense is on the ground, as they rank outside the top 70 in both Rush EPA allowed and Success Rate allowed. Unfortunately for the Gophers, they are completely incapable of exploiting any of those deficiencies.
Minnesota has had one of the most impotent rushing attacks in the country, ranking in the bottom five nationally in both EPA and Success Rate. The Gophers have averaged only 3.3 yards per carry on the season, which ranks 120th in the country.
Their entire offense revolves around quarterback Drake Lindsey chucking around the rock. Through 10 weeks, the Gophers have the 11th-highest passing rate in all of FBS.
Well, that approach won't work against a Penn State defense that has been downright dominant against opposing passing attacks, ranking in the top 15 in both Passing EPA and Success Rate.
This is a bad matchup for PJ Fleck's bunch and a potential spot where the Gophers just fall completely flat on their face after three-straight marquee matchups (similar to the blowout loss at Purdue last month following back-to-back upset victories).
You might really see that fatigue on the defensive side of the ball where they can be vulnerable to explosive passing plays, which has historically been a strong suit of Becht.
We Are.
Since 2005, Penn State has gone 18-10 ATS (64.3%) in prime-time home games, covering by nearly 5.5 points per game on average.
Pick: Penn State -8.5 (Play to -9.5)
Arizona +2.5 vs. Utah
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
Arizona is my favorite spot of the week, so I wanted to include the Wildcats, who will take on what I consider to be an overrated Utah squad that now ranks No. 2 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings.
Utah is a solid team, but I have the Utes power-rated 16th for reference.
They easily could have lost at Colorado earlier this season and have had a number of fortunate covers against Kansas, Houston and even last week against BYU in a game where Bear Bachmeier threw four interceptions in a one-possession loss.
Now, the Utes head down to Tucson following that emotional Holy War victory, while Arizona has an extra day to prepare and rest for a second straight home game.
This Utah defense is gettable, and Noah Fifita is the perfect quarterback to beat the blitz-heavy Utes.
With that said, I haven't pulled the trigger yet, as Utah may catch another break with an extremely shorthanded Arizona secondary, which is particularly noteworthy for a team that brings five-plus at the highest rate in the country while playing man coverage at one of the nation's highest clips.
Arizona will be without its best safety Cam Chapa, so all eyes are on its best cover cornerback Jay'Vion Cole and starting slot Malcolm Hartzog Jr.
I'm just not sure the Wildcats can overcome missing their three best defensive backs against this explosive Utah offense, especially considering Arizona has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks at times this season.
Keep in mind this is an Arizona team that lost five defensive backs from last season's team to the NFL. Considering the elite production they had to replace, the Wildcats' pass defense has exceeded everybody's expectations to date.
But injuries could derail the entire operation, especially since teams just don't have quality depth in the secondary in this new era of college football.
I will ultimately end up on Arizona in some fashion and am definitely in at +3, but how I approach this game will come down to who is available in the secondary and what number is available in the market.
I may also look to attack Arizona's team total over if everybody is out on the back end, which could turn this into a shootout.
So, while I don't have a bet yet in this game, I did want to at least note my favorite situational spot of the week. Follow along in the Action App if you're curious on how I end up playing this.
Pick: Arizona +2.5
LSU -3.5 vs. Texas
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Last week, the market backed LSU early and often against Alabama in a game it ended up losing by a very misleading 31-13 final score.
While the Tide deserved the win, the Tigers did outgain them by nearly 200 yards but just couldn't overcome countless fourth-down failures in Alabama territory.
Amazingly, Alabama scored 31 points on five trips into LSU territory, while LSU managed only 13 on eight!
Well, just one week later, the entire narrative has shifted around LSU. Not only is it no longer a national title contender, but the talk on the interwebs is all about how Lane Kiffin can't win the big game.
Funny enough, many have said the same about Steve Sarkisian in the past.
It's true that Kiffin doesn't have the most amazing track record in high-profile games. He's just 4-7 ATS vs. top-10 competition this decade (4-3 ATS at home). For reference, Sarkisian has gone 6-7 ATS since 2020 at Texas.
Maybe Lane makes a bunch of reckless fourth-down decisions on Saturday night in Death Valley, but I'm not afraid to back the Tigers here.
For starters, this spot is appealing.
While LSU is coming off a bit of a misleading defeat, Texas is riding high after picking up a road win at Missouri in a game where it benefited from a handful of game-changing calls.
Additionally, this is basically a playoff game for LSU, which needs to win out for a shot at getting into the College Football Playoff.
Meanwhile, Texas can likely still afford to drop a game, and the Longhorns have Arkansas and Texas A&M remaining on their schedule.
This is a great buy-low / sell-high spot, with all the urgency for the home team taking on a Texas team that will hit the road for a second straight week.

Additionally, this is a juicy matchup for the LSU defense, which has one of the nation's best pass defenses (top-10 in EPA allowed and Success Rate allowed).
Not only can the Tigers generate pressure at an elite level (second in Sack Rate), but they can also cover on the back end. That's extremely problematic for a Texas offense that ranks outside the top 100 in Sack Rate allowed with a quarterback who ranks 120th in turnover-worthy play rate.
Unlike Missouri, which almost never blitzes and plays soft zones on the back end, LSU will bring plenty of pressure and use more aggressive coverages, which will likely lead to a few critical Arch Manning mistakes and a plethora of drive-killing sacks.
This is just not a great Texas offense at the moment.
The run game is nothing to write home about (68th Success Rate in large part due to poor run blocking up front), which means Texas will be in third-and-long throughout this contest. On the season, LSU's defense ranks second in the country in average third-down distance at nearly 8.5 yards, while the Texas offense ranks 66th in that department.
I believe this is the matchup where Texas will really miss injured left tackle Trevor Goosby — a potential future first-round draft pick. It's a significant drop-off to his backup, Andre Cojoe, who has recently swapped sides with the steady Melvin Siani.
LSU's ferocious edge duo of Princewill Umanmielen and Jordan Ross should feast. Those two have combined for 63 pressures and 18 sacks through 10 weeks.
One might point to Sam Leavitt's nine interceptions as a reason to be concerned. However, he's been about as unlucky as any quarterback when it comes to giveaways (plenty of drops and random tips have led to INTs). Believe it or not, Leavitt actually owns the 11th-lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the country.
Like LSU, Texas also features an elite defense. The Longhorns won't make life easy on the LSU offense, but I trust Leavitt and the LSU offense much more, especially at home.
In a game where both defenses should create a high rate of pressure, Leavitt should make fewer mistakes and hit more explosive plays downfield.
On the season, Leavitt has a 10% lower pressure-to-sack ratio and a 10% higher completion rate when under pressure compared to Manning, who has the 145th-highest P2S ratio among 169 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.
Ultimately, this is a great spot and matchup for a team I still have power-rated in the top five (and higher than Texas). I believe the more desperate Tigers get this done on the back of their defense in front of a raucous crowd in prime time.
At Texas, Steve Sarkisian has gone just 8-14 ATS (36.4%) in conference road games, including 0-4 as an underdog, failing to cover by 12 points per game on average. He's also gone just 2-7 ATS in that role since the Longhorns have joined the SEC.
Pick: LSU -3.5 (Play to -4)
Arkansas +7.5 vs. South Carolina
7:45 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
Welcome to one of the most obvious situational spots on the board.
This screams "flat spot" for the Gamecocks, who kept their playoff hopes alive last week with a close (and somewhat fortunate) home win over Texas A&M last week.
In that loss, the Aggies became the first team in college football history to amass at least 450 total yards of offense and no turnovers without finding the end zone.
That ended an absolute gauntlet of games that came against the following teams:
- Mississippi State (with a healthy Kamario Taylor)
- Alabama
- Kentucky
- Florida
- Tennessee
- Oklahoma
- Texas A&M
Now, they head to Fayetteville one week before hosting Georgia in a game that might determine their playoff fate. Can the Gamecocks avoid the letdown after such a brutal stretch of games — all of which have been of the must-win variety?
Can they avoid getting caught looking ahead to the Dawgs next week? It's possible, but I'll pay to find out.
It also has to be mentioned that star quarterback LaNorris Sellers is dealing with an ankle injury. He isn't at risk of missing this game, but it was definitely bothering him at the end of last Saturday's victory over the Aggies.
He even said he couldn't go down on a late long run because he was afraid to stop due to the pain.
Not only is there risk of that issue flaring up, but there's a high probability he doesn't have his usual full mobility.
That will impact his ability to extend plays and limit his impact in the ground game, where he's super dangerous. In fact, Sellers is South Carolina's leading rusher this season. That will be welcome news to a very suspect Arkansas rush defense.
Look, I'm not going to wax poetic about this Razorbacks squad. The Hogs are a bad football team, but they've been playing better of late.
Over their last four games, they have a win at Vanderbilt and held fourth-quarter leads against Tennessee and Auburn in a pair of one-score losses.
Quarterback KJ Jackson continues to improve incrementally with each passing week and should have some opportunities to hit star receiver Chris Marshall downfield against a suspect South Carolina coverage group.
In what has become a lost season for Arkansas, this can serve as a quasi-Super Bowl with the chance to knock Tennessee out of the College Football Playoff.
I'm fully confident the Hogs will show up, and I wouldn't be shocked if the Gamecocks are a bit flat out of the gates. It's just difficult to get up emotionally for an inferior opponent after such a tough stretch of games with the No. 1 team in the land waiting on deck.
Woo Pig.
Over the past five seasons, unranked home teams in SEC games have gone 14-7-1 ATS vs. ranked foes in the month of November.
Pick: Arkansas +7.5 or Better























