The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers take on the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Kickoff is set for 7:45 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.
LSU is favored by 22 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2000. The total is set at 49.5 points.
Here’s my Western Kentucky vs. LSU prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
Western Kentucky vs LSU Prediction
- Western Kentucky vs. LSU Pick: LSU -22.5 or Better
My LSU vs. Western Kentucky best bet is on the Tigers to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Western Kentucky vs LSU Odds
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +1000 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
- Western Kentucky vs LSU point spread: LSU -22
- Western Kentucky vs LSU over/under: 49.5
- Western Kentucky vs LSU moneyline: LSU -2000, Western Kentucky +1000
Western Kentucky vs LSU Preview
I make this spread over 24 points, so this is my biggest edge, from a pure numbers perspective, for the entire weekend.
It's fair to question whether LSU will care about this non-conference matchup after a thrilling win over Arkansas, with a chance to play spoiler at Oklahoma up next.
However, while I certainly could be wrong, I don't really have any concerns from a motivational standpoint.
After all, this is LSU's final home game of the season and will be played in primetime. Plus, the Tigers seem to be playing very hard for interim head coach Frank Wilson.
I actually have more questions about how Western Kentucky will approach this likely unwinnable game with a huge showdown next week against Jacksonville State that will likely decide its chances at getting to the conference championship game.
Is the staff spending the week preparing for that game? Do they sit anybody dealing with nagging injuries? Both are certainly possible.
Meanwhile, LSU could get linebacker Whit Weeks back from injury, which would provide a considerable boost to an already nasty defense.
It doesn't look like Garrett Nussmeier will suit up at quarterback, but I'm fine with Michael van Buren under center for this matchup, especially since Nussmeier has been playing hurt for most of the season.
While the Nus Bus has not lived up to the hype, the primary culprit for LSU's underwhelming season has been poor offensive line play. The protection hasn't been good enough against SEC fronts, and there has been no run game to speak of.
That should change on Saturday night against a Western Kentucky defense that ranks outside the top-100 in yards before contact allowed and gets almost no pressure (bottom-10 in sack EPA) despite playing one of the nation's easiest schedules.
Speaking of strength of schedules, this is one of the widest disparities of the weekend.
Per Sagarin, LSU has played the sixth-most difficult slate to date, while Western Kentucky ranks 154th (including FCS teams).
The difference between this year's extremely deep SEC and a very down C-USA is hard to put into words. Just take a look at the Hilltopper wins this season:
- Sam Houston
- North Alabama
- Nevada (out-gained)
- Missouri State (Bears quarterback got hurt in close WKU win)
- Delaware (out-gained by almost 100 yards in a flukey WKU win)
- Louisiana Tech (by 1 in OT; needed an improbable late 4th down conversion)
- New Mexico State
- Middle Tennessee
It doesn't get much easier than that path to eight wins with a couple that probably should have been losses. In fact, I don't have any of those eight teams power rated inside the top-100.
Since taking over as the starting quarterback, Rodney Tisdale has had two impressive starts, but both came at home against bottom-feeders (NMSU and La Tech). His numbers under pressure remain very worrisome, especially given the lack of quality competition. The freshman may make quite a few critical mistakes in a very hostile environment against a defense that can certainly throw some exotic looks at him.
Western Kentucky (which also lost at home by 19 to FIU) has really only faced one (barely) above-average team in Toledo in a game it lost 45-21 on the road. This is a significant step up in class for the Hilltoppers, while it will provide a nice reprieve for an LSU squad that could use a feel-good blowout victory after a disappointing year.
As long as the Tigers care, they should be able to stretch their legs and win this by more than three touchdowns.
Pick: LSU -22.5 or Better
