The Wisconsin Badgers take on the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. EDT on FOX.
Michigan is favored by -16.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -850. The total is set at 42.5 points.
Here’s my Wisconsin vs. Michigan prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 4, 2025.
Wisconsin vs Michigan Prediction
- Wisconsin vs. Michigan Pick: Under 42.5 (-110, bet365)
My Michigan vs. Wisconsin best bet is on the Under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Wisconsin vs Michigan Odds
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +575 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -850 |
- Wisconsin vs Michigan point spread: Michigan -17 (-110), Wisconsin +17 (-110)
- Wisconsin vs Michigan over/under: 43.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Wisconsin vs Michigan moneyline: Wisconsin +575, Michigan -850
Wisconsin vs Michigan Preview
Wisconsin Badgers Betting Preview
It has not been a pretty start for Luke Fickell’s Wisconsin Badgers.
After a 2-0 start with wins over overmatched opponents, Wisconsin received a rude wake-up call on the road in a blowout loss to Alabama and followed that up with a woeful performance against Maryland, losing 27-10 in Camp Randall Stadium.
The infamous “Jump Around” spirit has been replaced with “Fire Fickell” chants — there may not be a team this season more excited for a trip to the Big House.
To make matters worse for Wisconsin, its quarterback still isn’t healthy. Projected starter Billy Edwards tried to give it a go against Maryland. Still, that decision only disrupted the flow of the Badger offense, culminating in three different quarterbacks taking snaps.
Fickell hasn’t provided much clarity on the situation, saying “I don’t know right now” mid-week. At worst, Edwards won’t see the field this week. At best, he won’t be 100% yet again.
That means backup quarterback Danny O’Neil will likely take most of the snaps, as he did in Wisconsin’s ugly win in Week 2. O’Neil threw for just 120 yards on 19 attempts, leading Wisconsin to just 17 points against Miami (OH).
Make no mistake, this is the worst Wisconsin offense in a decade, if not longer. There isn’t much room for optimism against quality opponents.
On the bright side, the Badger defense has done enough to avoid humiliation this year, even against the best of the best. Coming into the Michigan game, Wisconsin ranks first nationally in total rush defense, giving up just 2.11 yards per carry on the season and an average of 50 yards per game. The Badgers even held Alabama in check on the ground (72 yards on 22 carries).
They will need that to hold true against Michigan, the best rushing attack they have seen to date.
Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview
For Michigan, all eyes turn to the return of Head Coach Sherrone Moore.
Last time we saw Moore on the sidelines, he still had the training wheels on star freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, refusing to utilize the dual threat’s legs in Michigan’s loss at Oklahoma.
In two games with Sherrone Moore available to coach, Underwood combined for five carries and -6 yards on the ground. In the two games since, with the suspended Moore replaced by interim coach Biff Poggi, Underwood has run the ball 17 times for 175 yards and three scores.
The question is: will the return of Sherrone Moore have any impact on the way Underwood is used schematically? One would think the Michigan head coach would adopt the more aggressive approach that Poggi implemented.
However, that’s against Moore’s nature, going back to when he himself was named interim head coach for Jim Harbaugh, leading Michigan to a win over Penn State two full seasons ago without attempting a pass for an entire quarter.
While Underwood has emerged on the ground, he hasn’t fared well through the air against quality defenses. In the loss to Oklahoma, Underwood completed nine of 24 pass attempts for just 142 yards. In the Nebraska win, he finished 12 of 22 for 105. The zero passing touchdowns combined in those games seems a good indicator of where the Michigan passing game stands as Big Ten play rolls on.
Defensively, Michigan is in great shape to suffocate a Wisconsin offense that isn’t at full strength. That should provide Moore and his playcallers plenty of freedom to experiment, but who knows just how aggressive they will be.
Wisconsin vs Michigan Pick, Betting Analysis
Given Wisconsin’s turmoil offensively and Michigan’s propensity to ground and pound, there’s only one way to bet on this game.
Expect Moore to revert to what he does best: a simplified play sheet and plenty of smash-mouth runs. The Wolverines won’t need anything special to blow out Wisconsin.
However, against the nation’s top-ranked run defense, it may not yield as much success as usual. There’s no path forward for Wisconsin to score here, and there’s an obvious path to Michigan running into a wall of their own.
Take the Under.
Pick: Under 42.5 (-110, bet365)
