College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions: Your Betting Guide for Wyoming vs. Boise State (Nov. 12)

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions: Your Betting Guide for Wyoming vs. Boise State (Nov. 12) article feature image
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Tyler Ingham/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Khalil Shakir.

Wyoming vs. Boise State Odds

Thursday, Nov. 12
9 p.m. ET
FS1
Wyoming Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+14
-115
48.5
-115o / -105u
+435
Boise State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-14
-105
48.5
-115o / -105u
-600
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Since the Mountain West Conference introduced a divisional format, the Boise State Broncos have won the Mountain Division five times and the conference outright three times.

After a 3-4 start, though, both seemed out of reach. However, consecutive wins over Colorado State and Fresno State have brought Boise State to within a game of first place in the Mountain.

This week, Boise State welcomes Wyoming to the blue turf for a Friday night matchup.

The Cowboys come into this week at 5-4 overall and 1-4 in Mountain West play, although last week’s win over Colorado State snapped a four-game losing streak. Wyoming will look to continue that against an opponent it has not had much success against.

Boise leads the all-time series, 14-1, including last year’s 17-9 victory in Laramie. This year’s matchup might be another defensive struggle.


Wyoming Cowboys

Wyoming Features Run-Heavy Offense

The Cowboys have established their identity as a run-first team, running the ball on nearly 63% of their offensive snaps. The Cowboys are 35th in Rushing Success Rate and 39th in the country in rushing at 192 yards per game.

Running back Xazavian Valladay leads the way with 760 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Titus Swen complements him well is coming off a 166-yard performance against Colorado State.

The Cowboys’ rushing attack has not translated to points on the scoreboard. They’re 103rd in scoring at 23 points per game, also ranking 108th in big play and 114th in Passing Success Rate.

The Cowboys have handed over the reins to quarterback Levi Williams. In his first two starts this season, Williams has completed 55% of his passes with four touchdowns and two interceptions.

Cowboys Defense Excels Against the Pass

Defensively, Wyoming is 30th in the FBS in scoring defense, allowing 21.3 points per game.  The passing game is where the Cowboys excel. The Cowboys are fourth in passing yards allowed (155.7), fifth in coverage, and 22nd in Passing Success Rate.

Wyoming doesn’t create a ton of Havoc, ranking 120th in that area. However, against Boise State, the Cowboys will have an edge on the line of scrimmage, boasting an advantage over the Broncos in Line Yards, which could help them put pressure on BSU quarterback Hank Bachmeier.

Wyoming’s defense also has an advantage in Rushing Success Rate.

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Boise State Broncos

Broncos Passing Game Has Impressed

Bachmeier is enjoying the best season of his career. The third-year starter is completing 64% of his passes, throwing for 2,486 yards, 16 touchdowns, and five interceptions thus far.

Khalil Shakir is Bachmeier’s No. 1 target and one of the best wide receivers in the country, racking up 56 receptions for 844 yards and five touchdowns.

Bachmeier has not received much support from the Broncos’ running game. They rank 117th in the country in rushing at 110 yards per game and 114th in Rushing Success Rate.

Boise State splits the carries about evenly between George Holani, Cyrus Habibi-Likio, and Andrew Van Buren. However, Habibi-Likio and Van Buren average three yards per carry or less. As a team, the Broncos average 2.8 yards per carry.

Will Boise Give Up Big Plays?

Wyoming will look to exploit a Boise run defense that is 97th in rushing yards allowed and gives up 174.4 rushing per game.

Boise State can also be vulnerable to the big play at times. The Broncos are 92nd in big play percentage allowed and 125th passing play explosiveness allowed. However, Wyoming is not a team that you would expect to exploit that weakness.

The Broncos defense has shown a knack for creating big plays in pivotal moments. Boise State is tied for seventh nationally with 19 takeaways. The Broncos’ three interceptions of Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener were key to a 40-14 win last week.

Overall, the Broncos are 28th in scoring defense and allow 20.9 points per game.


Wyoming vs. Boise State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wyoming and Boise State match up statistically:

Wyoming Offense vs. Boise State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 35 51
Line Yards 33 67
Pass Success 114 50
Pass Blocking** 32 119
Big Play 108 92
Havoc 46 71
Finishing Drives 94 29
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Boise State Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 114 42
Line Yards 127 87
Pass Success 21 22
Pass Blocking** 97 67
Big Play 70 23
Havoc 68 117
Finishing Drives 49 20
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 70 42
Coverage 5 18
Middle 8 72
SP+ Special Teams 126 18
Plays per Minute 82 38
Rush Rate 62.6% (14) 52.5% (84)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Wyoming vs. Boise State Betting Pick

The last four meetings between Boise State and Wyoming have averaged 37 points per game. This year, the teams combine to give up a little over 42 points per game.

Matched up against each other, each defense will have an advantage in terms of Finishing Drives. Defensively, Wyoming ranks 20th in Finishing Drives while Boise State is 29th.

Additionally, the Cowboys operate at a slow pace offensively, ranking 82nd in plays per minute. With these factors in mind, I’m taking the under.

The under is 7-2 in Boise State games this year and 5-4 in Wyoming games. Additionally, it has hit in three of the last four meetings in this series. With a total of 48.5, I believe there’s a little value on the under and would play it down to 47.

Pick: Under 48.5 (Play to 47)

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