Home run props are all over the board on Tuesday's full 15-game MLB slate.
Every game gets its own breakdown below, in order of first pitch, with the top five home run props for each matchup.
Five individual picks are flagged as Editor's Picks up top, then reiterated inside their respective game sections as the slate rolls on.
Consider this the full rundown of today's best MLB home run predictions, game by game, in first-pitch order.
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Today's Best Home Run Bets: 5 Editor's Picks
Five trades stand out on today's board, and these are the picks anchoring today's best MLB home run predictions before first pitch.
Each one is broken down below with the exact ticket, the math behind it, and the reasoning driving the trade, and you can read a full Polymarket promo code overview if you want the mechanics spelled out further.
Best Home Run Prop Pick Today – Kazuma Okamoto (Editor's Pick #1)
Okamoto has been the single biggest surprise in the American League this year.
The 30-year-old rookie broke the Blue Jays' single-season rookie home run record and set the all-time MLB mark for home runs by a Japanese-born rookie, surpassing the total Shohei Ohtani posted in 2018.
He's currently sitting on 26 home runs and 74 RBI in his first MLB season, and he's hit safely in six straight games with two doubles and two homers during that stretch.
Toronto needs him locked in, since the Blue Jays are fighting for the final AL Wild Card spot and Okamoto has been filling the power vacuum left by a quiet year from Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
We're buying Okamoto at 15% here, the exact price on today's board, and leaning on his hot recent form against a Cleveland pitching staff that's given up plenty of contact against Toronto's righties this season.
Putting $100 into this ticket at an average price of 15.81 cents works out to roughly 632 shares.
The board lists a payout of $601.98 on the full $100 stake if the trade hits.
- If Okamoto homers: the position pays out $601.98 on the $100 risked.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
It's a longshot by definition at 15 cents, but the payout multiple on this one is close to 6x the stake, which is a fair price for betting on the hottest bat in the Blue Jays lineup right now.
Best Home Run Prop Pick Today – Alex Bregman (Editor's Pick #2)
Bregman signed with the Cubs on a five-year, $175 million deal this past offseason after one season in Boston, and he's heating up exactly when Chicago needs it.
He just posted the first three-homer game of his career against Washington, driving in a career-high seven runs, and he's now riding a stretch with a 1.123 OPS over his last 11 games in August.
Five of his last 16 home runs have come in that recent burst, and the Cubs need his bat locked in as they try to hold onto an NL Wild Card spot down the stretch.
We're buying Bregman at 17% here, matching the board price, on the strength of that recent power surge against a Brewers pitching staff that's otherwise been excellent all season.
Putting $100 into this ticket at an average price of 17.45 cents works out to roughly 573 shares.
The board lists a payout of $546.05 on the full $100 stake if the trade hits.
- If Bregman homers: the position pays out $546.05 on the $100 risked.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Milwaukee owns the best record in baseball for a reason, so this is a real risk, but a hitter this hot against any pitching staff is worth a bet at better than 5-to-1.
Best Home Run Prop Pick Today – Munetaka Murakami (Editor's Pick #3)
Murakami has been one of the biggest rookie stories in baseball all season, at one point sitting just one home run behind Aaron Judge for the overall MLB lead in the season's first six weeks.
He's up to 29 home runs now, and he went deep in five straight games earlier this year during a stretch that saw him hit .444 with 10 RBI over six games.
Murakami draws walks at an elite rate for a power hitter, and the White Sox lead the AL Central in large part because of the thump he's added to the middle of their order.
We're buying Murakami at 23% here, right at the board price, in a game against a Houston pitching staff that has to be careful not to leave anything over the heart of the plate against him.
Putting $100 into this ticket at an average price of 23 cents works out to roughly 435 shares.
The board lists a payout of $415.56 on the full $100 stake if the trade hits.
- If Murakami homers: the position pays out $415.56 on the $100 risked.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
At close to 23 cents on the dollar, this is the shortest-priced pick of the five, but a rookie with this kind of raw power ceiling justifies the shorter number.
Best Home Run Prop Pick Today – Bryce Harper (Editor's Pick #4)
Harper has dealt with knee soreness since the Phillies shifted him back to right field following the Luis Arraez trade, and Philadelphia has managed his workload with occasional DH days as a result.
Even with that, he hit his 27th home run of the season in late August and has continued producing at the plate despite the position change.
The Phillies are chasing Atlanta in the NL East and sitting on a share of a Wild Card spot regardless, so keeping Harper's bat in the lineup matters as September starts.
We're buying Harper at 13% here, matching the board, betting that the health concern is more of a defensive workload issue than something that saps his power at the plate.
Putting $100 into this ticket at an average price of 13 cents works out to roughly 769 shares.
The board lists a payout of $731.07 on the full $100 stake if the trade hits.
- If Harper homers: the position pays out $731.07 on the $100 risked.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
This is the longest price of the five picks today, and the knee issue is a real variable, but the payout near 7.3x the stake is the best risk-reward ratio on this list.
Best Home Run Prop Pick Today – Shohei Ohtani (Editor's Pick #5)
Ohtani got off to a slower power start than usual this season, hitting just 11 home runs over the Dodgers' first 67 games while the team managed his workload closely.
Since mid-May he's been in a torrid stretch, and he's now been in the lineup for 23 of the Dodgers' past 24 games as Los Angeles has stopped holding him out as often.
He's chasing a third straight 50-homer season, and the Dodgers own the best record in the NL West as they push toward another deep October run.
We're buying Ohtani at 26% here, the top price on today's entire home run board, in a game against a Cardinals pitching staff that St. Louis has had trouble stabilizing all year.
Putting $100 into this ticket at an average price of 26 cents works out to roughly 385 shares.
The board lists a payout of $368.26 on the full $100 stake if the trade hits.
- If Ohtani homers: the position pays out $368.26 on the $100 risked.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
At 26%, this is the shortest-priced pick on the slate, but it's also the most talented power hitter in the sport hitting in the friendliest home run environment of the five games.
Best Home Run Bets Today: Mets vs Rays
Tampa Bay leads the AL East comfortably and owns one of the best records in baseball, while New York is buried in the NL East basement with little left to play for down the stretch.
Here are the top five home run props for this game, ranked by implied probability.
- Junior Caminero (Home Run 1+: Yes 24%, No 78%): Caminero is the clear top price on this board, and the Rays third baseman has been one of the most consistent power threats in their lineup all season.
- Juan Soto (Home Run 1+: Yes 19%, No 21%): Soto's on-base skills mean he doesn't always chase home run props, but a 19% price still reflects the power he carries in the middle of the Mets order.
- Francisco Lindor (Home Run 1+: Yes 14%, No 16%): Lindor has been a steady source of pop from the leadoff spot for New York all year.
- Yandy Diaz (Home Run 1+: Yes 14%, No 16%): Diaz trades average for a bit less power, so this price sits appropriately below the true sluggers on the Rays roster.
- Ryan Vilade (Home Run 1+: Yes 14%, No 89%): Vilade's wide gap between Yes and No pricing reflects thinner recent power output relative to the top of this list.
Best Home Run Predictions Today: Giants vs Pirates
Neither club is anywhere near the playoff picture, with San Francisco near the bottom of the NL West and Pittsburgh settled into the middle of a weak NL Central.
Here are the top five home run props for this game, ranked by implied probability.
- Rafael Devers (Home Run 1+: Yes 19%, No 82%): Devers remains the Giants' best power threat even in a lost season, and this price reflects his standing as the top bat in the lineup.
- Brandon Lowe (Home Run 1+: Yes 15%, No 86%): Lowe's price edges out several Pirates regulars, a sign the market still respects his pull-side power.
- Oneil Cruz (Home Run 1+: Yes 14%, No 17%): Cruz's raw exit velocity keeps him firmly in the conversation on any given night, even in a down year for Pittsburgh's offense.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (Home Run 1+: Yes 11%, No 13%): Valdez checks in as a middle-of-the-pack price, consistent with a complementary rather than a headline power bat.
- Bryan Reynolds (Home Run 1+: Yes 10%, No 92%): Reynolds rounds out the top five, priced as a steady rather than explosive power source for the Pirates.
Best Home Run Bets Today: Padres vs Reds
San Diego sits half a game back of the final NL Wild Card spot currently held by Arizona, and needs results like this one against a fading Reds club to stay in the mix.
Here are the top five home run props for this game, ranked by implied probability.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Home Run 1+: Yes 25%, No 76%): Tatis tops this board comfortably, and the Padres need his power output to keep their Wild Card push alive.
- Manny Machado (Home Run 1+: Yes 21%, No 80%): Machado's price sits close behind Tatis, reflecting his continued standing as a middle-of-the-order threat for San Diego.
- Elly De La Cruz (Home Run 1+: Yes 20%, No 81%): De La Cruz's combination of speed and power keeps his price competitive with San Diego's top two bats.
- JJ Bleday (Home Run 1+: Yes 19%, No 82%): Bleday's price has ticked up recently, a sign the market has noticed an uptick in his power production.
- Sal Stewart (Home Run 1+: Yes 19%, No 83%): Stewart rounds out the top five with a big jump in his line, suggesting the market is pricing in strong recent form.
Best Home Run Predictions Today: Blue Jays vs Guardians
Cleveland currently holds the final AL Wild Card spot, with Toronto sitting a game and a half back as the two open a stretch of crucial September series against contenders.
Here are the top five home run props for this game, ranked by implied probability.
- Jo Adell (Home Run 1+: Yes 16%, No 86%): Adell tops this board, continuing a strong power season for Cleveland's outfield.
- Kazuma Okamoto (Home Run 1+: Yes 15%, No 86%): Okamoto is today's Editor's Pick in this game (see above), and his rookie-record power season has him priced right behind Adell.
- Jose Ramirez (Home Run 1+: Yes 14%, No 17%): Ramirez hasn't hit up to his usual standards this year, but he still carries enough respect from the market to sit in the top three on this board.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Home Run 1+: Yes 12%, No 89%): Guerrero's price reflects a quieter power season, part of the reason Toronto has leaned on Okamoto to pick up the slack.
- George Springer (Home Run 1+: Yes 11%, No 13%): Springer rounds out the top five as a steady veteran power source in the Toronto lineup.
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Best Home Run Bets Today: Orioles vs Rockies
Baltimore is a game back of an AL Wild Card spot with a month to make up ground, while Colorado owns the worst record in the sport and is buried in last in the NL West.
Here are the top five home run props for this game, ranked by implied probability.
- Pete Alonso (Home Run 1+: Yes 21%, No 23%): Alonso sits atop this board in a tie, staying true to his reputation as one of the game's most reliable power hitters.
- Hunter Goodman (Home Run 1+: Yes 21%, No 22%): Goodman matches Alonso's price, a strong showing for Colorado's best current power bat.
- Samuel Basallo (Home Run 1+: Yes 19%, No 83%): Basallo has emerged as a real power threat for Baltimore's young lineup this season.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Home Run 1+: Yes 17%, No 19%): Encarnacion-Strand rounds out Colorado's top power threats with a respectable price given the team's overall struggles.
- Mickey Moniak (Home Run 1+: Yes 15%, No 16%): Moniak checks in fifth, reflecting his role as a complementary rather than headline power source for the Orioles.
Best Home Run Predictions Today: Braves vs Nationals
Atlanta owns the best record in the National League and has been red hot lately, while Washington is well out of the playoff picture in the NL East basement.
Here are the top five home run props for this game, ranked by implied probability.
- Matt Olson (Home Run 1+: Yes 26%, No 75%): Olson leads this board by a wide margin, cementing his place as Atlanta's most dangerous power bat during this hot stretch.
- Drake Baldwin (Home Run 1+: Yes 22%, No 79%): Baldwin's price has surged, a sign the market has taken notice of his growing power production behind the plate for Atlanta.
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (Home Run 1+: Yes 21%, No 81%): Acuna remains a threat every time he steps in the box, and this price reflects that continued respect from bettors.
- Michael Harris II (Home Run 1+: Yes 19%, No 20%): Harris rounds out Atlanta's strong showing at the top of this board, another sign of the Braves' offensive depth.
- Abimelec Ortiz (Home Run 1+: Yes 16%, No 87%): Ortiz is the top-priced Nationals bat on this board, giving Washington at least one legitimate power threat in the lineup.
Best Home Run Bets Today: Mariners vs Red Sox
Boston is holding onto an AL Wild Card spot five games clear of the cut line, while Seattle has fallen well off the pace in a competitive AL West.
Here are the top five home run props for this game, ranked by implied probability.
- Wilyer Abreu (Home Run 1+: Yes 15%, No 87%): Abreu tops this board, continuing to establish himself as a legitimate power threat for a Red Sox team fighting for playoff position.
- Dominic Canzone (Home Run 1+: Yes 13%, No 90%): Canzone's price puts him just ahead of a trio of Mariners bats, a modest edge for Boston's lineup depth.
- Julio Rodriguez (Home Run 1+: Yes 13%, No 89%): Rodriguez remains Seattle's headline power bat even in a disappointing team season.
- Roman Anthony (Home Run 1+: Yes 13%, No 89%): Anthony rounds out this three-way tie, reflecting his growing power role for Boston.
- Randy Arozarena (Home Run 1+: Yes 12%, No 90%): Arozarena checks in fifth, a fair price for a hitter who mixes speed with occasional pop.
Best Home Run Predictions Today: Brewers vs Cubs
Milwaukee owns the best record in baseball and a comfortable NL Central lead, while Chicago is fighting to hold its grip on an NL Wild Card spot.
Here are the top five home run props for this game, ranked by implied probability.
- Seiya Suzuki (Home Run 1+: Yes 24%, No 77%): Suzuki tops this board with a price that's climbed noticeably, a good sign for a Cubs lineup trying to close out September strong.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (Home Run 1+: Yes 22%, No 23%): Crow-Armstrong sits second, part of an MVP-caliber season that has him firmly in the National League awards conversation.
- Jackson Chourio (Home Run 1+: Yes 21%, No 22%): Chourio just reached the 20-home-run mark for the third straight season, keeping him among the top power threats in Milwaukee's lineup.
- Alex Bregman (Home Run 1+: Yes 17%, No 84%): Bregman is today's Editor's Pick in this game (see above), and his recent power surge, including a career-first three-homer game, has him priced fourth on this board.
- William Contreras (Home Run 1+: Yes 16%, No 17%): Contreras rounds out the top five, another reliable power source in Milwaukee's deep lineup.
Best Home Run Bets Today: Tigers vs Twins
Both AL Central clubs are on the outside of the Wild Card race, playing out a September series with more pride than postseason stakes attached.
Here are the top five home run props for this game, ranked by implied probability.
- Kody Clemens (Home Run 1+: Yes 15%, No 17%): Clemens leads this board, a strong showing for a Minnesota lineup otherwise short on standout power names tonight.
- Dillon Dingler (Home Run 1+: Yes 14%, No 88%): Dingler ties for second, giving Detroit a respectable power price behind the plate.
- Spencer Torkelson (Home Run 1+: Yes 14%, No 88%): Torkelson matches Dingler's price, continuing to anchor Detroit's power output at first base.
- Josh Bell (Home Run 1+: Yes 13%, No 88%): Bell's price has ticked up recently, suggesting the market has noticed improved recent form.
- Royce Lewis (Home Run 1+: Yes 13%, No 90%): Lewis rounds out the top five, a fair price for a talented but streaky power bat.
Best Home Run Predictions Today: Marlins vs Royals
Miami remains in the thick of a crowded NL Wild Card chase, while Kansas City is buried in the AL Central with little left to play for.
Here are the top five home run props for this game, ranked by implied probability.
- Kyle Stowers (Home Run 1+: Yes 21%, No 80%): Stowers tops this board, giving Miami a legitimate power threat as they push for a Wild Card berth.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (Home Run 1+: Yes 19%, No 82%): Witt remains one of the game's premier all-around talents, and this price reflects continued respect from the market even in a lost Royals season.
- Heriberto Hernandez (Home Run 1+: Yes 19%, No 83%): Hernandez's price has ticked upward, a sign of improving recent power output for Kansas City.
- Jac Caglione (Home Run 1+: Yes 19%, No 82%): Caglione rounds out a three-way tie near the top, giving Miami's lineup real depth in this spot.
- Carter Jensen (Home Run 1+: Yes 17%, No 84%): Jensen closes out the top five as a steady complementary power bat for Kansas City.
Best Home Run Bets Today: Athletics vs Rangers
Texas is clinging to a longshot AL Wild Card hope, while the Athletics own one of the league's worst records.
Here are the top five home run props for this game, ranked by implied probability.
- Corey Seager (Home Run 1+: Yes 17%, No 85%): Seager tops this board, still the most dangerous bat in the Rangers lineup even in a difficult season.
- Jake Burger (Home Run 1+: Yes 15%, No 86%): Burger's price has slipped slightly, but he remains a real power threat in Texas's middle order.
- Wyatt Langford (Home Run 1+: Yes 15%, No 88%): Langford matches Burger's price, continuing to develop into a legitimate power bat for the Rangers.
- Brandon Nimmo (Home Run 1+: Yes 13%, No 88%): Nimmo is the top-priced Athletics bat on this board, giving Oakland at least one respectable power option.
- Jonah Heim (Home Run 1+: Yes 12%, No 91%): Heim rounds out the top five as a steady if unspectacular power source behind the plate.
Best Home Run Predictions Today: White Sox vs Astros
Chicago leads the AL Central by a comfortable margin, and Houston holds a slim edge atop a wide-open AL West, making this a matchup between two division leaders trying to pull away down the stretch.
Here are the top five home run props for this game, ranked by implied probability.
- Yordan Alvarez (Home Run 1+: Yes 24%, No 77%): Alvarez tops this board, remaining one of the most feared power bats in the sport whenever he's healthy.
- Munetaka Murakami (Home Run 1+: Yes 23%, No 79%): Murakami is today's Editor's Pick in this game (see above), and his rookie power season has him priced right behind Alvarez on this board.
- Colson Montgomery (Home Run 1+: Yes 19%, No 82%): Montgomery ties for third, another encouraging sign for a young White Sox lineup exceeding expectations.
- Miguel Vargas (Home Run 1+: Yes 19%, No 83%): Vargas matches Montgomery's price, giving Chicago real depth behind their rookie sensation.
- Christian Walker (Home Run 1+: Yes 16%, No 86%): Walker rounds out the top five, a fair price for a veteran power bat in Houston's lineup.
Best Home Run Bets Today: Yankees vs Angels
New York sits comfortably inside the AL Wild Card picture, while the Angels have long been eliminated from postseason contention.
Here are the top five home run props for this game, ranked by implied probability.
- Ben Rice (Home Run 1+: Yes 19%, No 20%): Rice ties for the top price on this board, continuing to establish himself as a real power source in New York's lineup.
- Trent Grisham (Home Run 1+: Yes 19%, No 82%): Grisham matches Rice's price, though his number has slipped a bit compared to earlier in the season.
- Luis Garcia Jr. (Home Run 1+: Yes 17%, No 85%): Garcia's price has come down some, but he remains one of the Angels' more dangerous bats.
- Mike Trout (Home Run 1+: Yes 17%, No 85%): Trout matches Garcia's price, still commanding respect from the market even in a lost season for the Angels.
- Cody Bellinger (Home Run 1+: Yes 15%, No 86%): Bellinger rounds out the top five, a fair price given his recent power dip.
Best Home Run Predictions Today: Phillies vs Diamondbacks
Philadelphia holds a share of an NL Wild Card spot and is chasing Atlanta in the NL East, while Arizona currently occupies the final NL Wild Card spot with Philadelphia and the Cubs breathing down its neck.
Here are the top five home run props for this game, ranked by implied probability.
- Kyle Schwarber (Home Run 1+: Yes 18%, No 19%): Schwarber tops this board, as reliable a source of home run props as exists in the National League.
- Ketel Marte (Home Run 1+: Yes 14%, No 16%): Marte checks in second, Arizona's clear top power threat in this lineup.
- Bryce Harper (Home Run 1+: Yes 13%, No 88%): Harper is today's Editor's Pick in this game (see above), and his continued production despite a knee issue has him priced third on this board.
- Corbin Carroll (Home Run 1+: Yes 9%, No 92%): Carroll's price has ticked up recently, a sign the market expects more power out of him down the stretch.
- J.T. Realmuto (Home Run 1+: Yes 9%, No 93%): Realmuto matches Carroll's price, though his number has slipped somewhat over recent weeks.
Best Home Run Bets Today: Cardinals vs Dodgers
Los Angeles owns the best record in the National League West and remains a World Series favorite, while St. Louis is fading in a crowded NL Wild Card chase.
Here are the top five home run props for this game, ranked by implied probability.
Some contracts on this board only have one side actively priced, so any prop below without a No line simply doesn't have an active No market at the moment.
- Shohei Ohtani (Home Run 1+: Yes 26%, No 75%): Ohtani is today's Editor's Pick in this game (see above), and he's the top-priced player on the entire slate as he chases a third straight 50-homer season.
- Jordan Walker (Home Run 1+: Yes 21%, No 80%): Walker sits second, St. Louis's most dangerous power threat as the season winds down.
- Max Muncy (Home Run 1+: Yes 18%): Muncy's board slot only has an active Yes side right now, but that 18% price still places him firmly in the middle of the Dodgers' deep lineup.
- Alec Burleson (Home Run 1+: Yes 16%, No 85%): Burleson ties for fourth, a solid complementary power bat for St. Louis.
- Ivan Herrera (Home Run 1+: Yes 16%, No 85%): Herrera rounds out the top five, giving the Cardinals real pop from behind the plate.
That closes out today's five-game Editor's Pick slate, but there are more games and more home run props available on the Polymarket board beyond the 15 covered here.
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Best MLB Home Run Predictions: Final Thoughts
With 15 games on the board, there's no shortage of home run props to work with today, from Shohei Ohtani's slate-topping 26% price down to longer shots sitting in the single digits.
Anyone bookmarking today's best MLB home run predictions for later should note that board prices move throughout the day as lineups get confirmed.
The five Editor's Picks lean toward hitters in the middle of a hot stretch rather than simply the highest-priced name on each individual board, which is why Bryce Harper's 13% price made the cut over some shorter options elsewhere on the slate.
Anyone looking to dig deeper into how these contracts are priced can check out the full prediction markets hub or the beginner's guide to Polymarket contracts before putting money on any of today's best home run bets.
Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who deposit $10 or more.
What are the best home run bets today?
The best home run bets today, and the anchor of today's best MLB home run predictions, are Kazuma Okamoto, Alex Bregman, Munetaka Murakami, Bryce Harper, and Shohei Ohtani, each broken down in detail above.
Who has the highest home run price on today's board?
Shohei Ohtani carries the highest home run price on today's full slate at 26%, followed closely by Matt Olson and Junior Caminero.
How do Polymarket home run contracts work?
Each contract asks whether a specific player will hit at least one home run in that game. Buying Yes pays out $1 per share if the player homers, and the stake is lost entirely if they don't.
What does the percentage price mean on a home run prop?
The percentage represents the market's implied probability of that outcome. A 20% Yes price roughly means the market believes there's a 20% chance that player hits a home run in that game.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code?
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When do these home run props resolve?
Each contract resolves at the conclusion of that specific game, based on official MLB box score results for home runs recorded.
Are there more games available beyond the 15 covered here?
Yes, Polymarket lists home run props for additional games beyond this 15-game breakdown, and those boards can be found directly on the platform's MLB player props tab.








