Sunday's MLB schedule is loaded with home run value, and Polymarket's player prop boards for Red Sox-Yankees, Mariners-Blue Jays, Dodgers-Tigers, Astros-Mets, and Phillies-Angels are moving fast.
We've broken down the best home run bets today across all five games, including our Editor's Pick for each matchup.
If you're hunting for the best MLB home run picks on a busy Sunday, this slate has no shortage of value up and down each lineup.
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Red Sox vs Yankees – Best MLB Home Run Picks Today
Boston and New York play a rubber match at Yankee Stadium on Sunday, with both teams jockeying for a tiebreaker edge in a crowded AL picture.
The Red Sox have gotten steady thump out of first baseman Willson Contreras since acquiring him from St. Louis over the winter, and he's already gone deep at Yankee Stadium once this season.
This game alone offers some of the best MLB home run picks on today's slate given how deep both lineups run.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Willson Contreras (Editor's Pick)
Contreras is priced at 17% (Yes 17¢) to go deep on Sunday, and it's the trade we're making for this game.
He's Boston's most consistent power threat in the middle of the order, and he's shown he can do damage in the Bronx, having taken a Yankees pitcher deep into the second deck earlier this season.
With a rubber match on the line and both lineups needing runs, we like the shape of this number.
We put $100 into this contract at an average price of roughly 18¢, a touch above the board's 17¢ price since a $100 order at this size nudges the average up slightly.
That works out to about 560 shares purchased, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Contreras hits a home run: the position pays out approximately $560, a profit of about $460 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
It's a longshot swing at better than 5-to-1 on the payout, priced for a hitter capable of running into one against any arm New York sends out.
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Home Run Props
Here's how the board shapes up for today's home run market, ranked from most to least likely.
- Wilyer Abreu (1+ Home Run: 21%, Yes 21¢): Abreu tops the board despite a 12-point drop from the open, still the field's top power threat on paper.
- Ben Rice (1+ Home Run: 17%, Yes 17¢): Rice sits right alongside Contreras as one of the Yankees' most dangerous bats in this spot.
- Willson Contreras (1+ Home Run: 17%, Yes 17¢): Our Editor's Pick, discussed above, down 13 points from its opening price.
- Trent Grisham (1+ Home Run: 15%, Yes 15¢): Grisham has settled in as a middle-of-the-order threat for New York, though this price has cooled 12 points.
- Adley Rutschman (1+ Home Run: 14%, Yes 14¢): Since being traded to Boston at the deadline, Rutschman has added another switch-hitting bat capable of leaving the yard.
- Jarren Duran (1+ Home Run: 14%, Yes 14¢): Duran's speed-power combination keeps him in the mix on most nights.
- Heliot Ramos (1+ Home Run: 13%, Yes 13¢): A modest 4-point pullback still leaves Ramos in the double digits.
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (1+ Home Run: 13%, Yes 13¢): Chisholm's power ceiling keeps him firmly in the conversation any time he's in the lineup.
- Luis Garcia Jr. (1+ Home Run: 13%, Yes 13¢): A steep 13-point drop from the opener suggests the market cooled meaningfully on this side.
- Paul Goldschmidt (1+ Home Run: 13%, Yes 13¢): Goldschmidt rounds out the top ten after a similar 13-point retreat.
Some contracts further down this board only carry an active Yes side at the time of writing, so we've stuck to names with a live two-sided market above.
Mariners vs Blue Jays – Best MLB Home Run Picks Today
Seattle and Toronto are both scrapping for position in a crowded AL race, and this one leans on two of the league's better power bats.
Kazuma Okamoto has been Toronto's offensive engine all year, with George Kirby trying to give the Mariners length on the mound as Seattle looks to snap a rough stretch.
Best Home Run Prop Today – George Springer (Editor's Pick)
We're taking George Springer at 13% (Yes 13¢) to leave the yard on Sunday.
Springer remains a threat to change a game with one swing, and Toronto's lineup has enough thump around him that pitchers can't simply work around it.
At this price, we like the payout relative to how often a hitter of his caliber gets to one.
We put $100 into this contract at an average price of roughly 14¢, slightly above the 13¢ board price.
That's about 731 shares purchased, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Springer connects: the payout is approximately $731, a profit of about $631 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
That's better than 7-to-1 on the payout, a real longshot swing but one grounded in a hitter with legitimate over-the-fence power.
Home Run Props
Ranked most to least likely, here's the full home run board for this one.
- Cal Raleigh (1+ Home Run: 24%, Yes 24¢): Raleigh tops this board by a wide margin, and it's not close.
- Dominic Canzone (1+ Home Run: 19%, Yes 19¢): Canzone has quietly turned into a threat in Seattle's lineup, down 4 points from the open.
- Julio Rodríguez (1+ Home Run: 16%, Yes 16¢): Rodríguez has 20 home runs on the year, a real 5-tool threat any time he's up.
- Kazuma Okamoto (1+ Home Run: 15%, Yes 15¢): Toronto's offensive engine all season, down 4 points from the opener.
- Randy Arozarena (1+ Home Run: 15%, Yes 15¢): Arozarena has 20 home runs and 85 runs scored, a genuine table-setter with real pop.
- Jesús Sánchez (1+ Home Run: 14%, Yes 14¢): Sánchez has stayed steady around the middle of this board with no notable movement.
- George Springer (1+ Home Run: 13%, Yes 13¢): Our Editor's Pick, discussed above, down 4 points from its open.
- Josh Naylor (1+ Home Run: 13%, Yes 13¢): Naylor rounds out a deep Seattle lineup with legitimate pop of his own.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1+ Home Run: 13%, Yes 13¢): Guerrero comes with a 5-point pullback but remains one of the sport's premier bats.
- Cole Young (1+ Home Run: 12%, Yes 12¢): Young rounds out the top ten after a 5-point retreat from the open.
A handful of names further down this board only had one active side at the time of writing.
Dodgers vs Tigers – Best MLB Home Run Picks Today
Los Angeles took the series opener behind Blake Snell and rolls into Sunday with a 1-0 series edge on the road.
Tyler Glasnow gets the ball for the Dodgers against Detroit's Framber Valdez, with Dillon Dingler's 26 home runs anchoring the Tigers' power on the other side.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Shohei Ohtani (Editor's Pick)
This is the flagship pick of the slate: Shohei Ohtani at 17% (Yes 17¢) to leave the yard.
Ohtani remains the most feared power threat in the sport, and even with this price down 12 points from the open, he's still the clear top target on this entire five-game board.
Freddie Freeman is hitting .302 behind him, which means pitchers don't have an easy path to work around Ohtani even if they wanted to.
We put $100 into this contract at an average price of roughly 18¢, a touch above the 17¢ board price.
That's about 560 shares purchased, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Ohtani goes deep: the payout is approximately $560, a profit of about $460 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Better than 5-to-1 on the payout for arguably the single best power bet on today's entire slate.
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Home Run Props
Ranked most to least likely, here's today's full home run board for this matchup.
- Shohei Ohtani (1+ Home Run: 17%, Yes 17¢): Our Editor's Pick, discussed above, and still the clear top target on this board.
- Mookie Betts (1+ Home Run: 11%, Yes 11¢): Betts down 13 points from the opener but still a legitimate threat in this Dodgers lineup.
- Teoscar Hernández (1+ Home Run: 11%, Yes 11¢): A 14-point drop hasn't fully priced Hernández's pop out of this market.
- Spencer Torkelson (1+ Home Run: 10%, Yes 10¢): Torkelson stays in the double digits for Detroit despite no reported movement.
- Dillon Dingler (1+ Home Run: 10%, Yes 10¢): Dingler leads the Tigers with 26 home runs this season, though this price is down 14 points.
- Enrique Hernández (1+ Home Run: 10%, Yes 10¢): A modest 2-point pullback for a versatile Dodgers bat.
- Freddie Freeman (1+ Home Run: 10%, Yes 10¢): Freeman's .302 average makes him a threat any time he connects, even with a 12-point drop here.
- Kevin McGonigle (1+ Home Run: 10%, Yes 10¢): McGonigle has been hot recently, going 9-for-41 with two home runs over his last ten games.
- Hao-Yu Lee (1+ Home Run: 9%, Yes 9¢): Lee rounds out the double-digit tier with only a small 2-point pullback.
- Brett Callahan (1+ Home Run: 9%, Yes 9¢): Callahan closes out our top ten, also down a modest 2 points.
A few names further down the board only carry a single active side right now.
Astros vs Mets – Best MLB Home Run Picks Today
Both clubs are well outside the playoff picture at this point, but the individual bats still make for one of the better home run boards on the slate.
Zac Thornton takes the ball for the Mets against Houston's Ethan Pecko, with Juan Soto and Yordan Alvarez leading their respective lineups in raw power.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Yordan Alvarez (Editor's Pick)
We're backing Yordan Alvarez at 22% (Yes 22¢) to go deep on Sunday.
Alvarez remains Houston's premier power threat, and a 13-point drop from the opener has actually made this number more attractive relative to where the market started.
Against a Mets staff still searching for consistency, we like this side of the board.
We put $100 into this contract at an average price of roughly 23¢, slightly above the 22¢ board price.
That's about 434 shares purchased, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Alvarez connects: the payout is approximately $434, a profit of about $334 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
Roughly 4-to-1 on the payout, the shortest price of our five picks but still very much a longshot swing.
Home Run Props
Ranked most to least likely, here's the full home run board for this game.
- Juan Soto (1+ Home Run: 23%, Yes 23¢): Soto tops this board, down a modest 4 points from the open.
- Yordan Alvarez (1+ Home Run: 22%, Yes 22¢): Our Editor's Pick, discussed above, down 13 points from its opening price.
- Christian Walker (1+ Home Run: 17%, Yes 17¢): Walker's power keeps him firmly in the mix, though this price is down 13 points.
- Francisco Lindor (1+ Home Run: 17%, Yes 17¢): Lindor sits right alongside Walker after a matching 13-point pullback.
- Luis Robert Jr. (1+ Home Run: 15%, Yes 15¢): A 12-point drop still leaves Robert with real thump in this spot.
- Cam Smith (1+ Home Run: 14%, Yes 14¢): Smith has held steady near the middle of this board.
- Isaac Paredes (1+ Home Run: 14%, Yes 14¢): Paredes is down 13 points but stays in the double-digit tier.
- Carson Benge (1+ Home Run: 13%, Yes 13¢): Benge rounds into the top ten after a 13-point retreat.
- Jared Young (1+ Home Run: 13%, Yes 13¢): One of the few names on this board trending up, gaining a point from the open.
- Jeremy Peña (1+ Home Run: 13%, Yes 13¢): Peña has climbed 14 points, the sharpest positive move on this entire board.
Several names further down this list only carry one live side at the moment.
Phillies vs Angels – Best MLB Home Run Picks Today
Zack Wheeler takes the ball for Philadelphia against a lineup that's been one of the league's weakest at getting on base, with Yusei Kikuchi still building back up for the Angels after an IL stint.
Kyle Schwarber sits atop this entire board and is the clear headline name in this matchup.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Kyle Schwarber (Editor's Pick)
We're taking Kyle Schwarber at 26% (Yes 26¢), the highest price on our entire five-game slate.
Schwarber has been one of MLB's most prolific home run hitters for years, and even against a shaky Angels pitching staff we don't need much of a leap to see this number connect.
A 4-point drop from the open hasn't changed our view here.
We put $100 into this contract at an average price of roughly 27¢, slightly above the 26¢ board price.
That's about 368 shares purchased, each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Schwarber connects: the payout is approximately $368, a profit of about $268 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
The shortest price and lowest multiple of our five picks, but the highest implied probability on the board for a reason.
Home Run Props
Ranked most to least likely, here's the full home run board for this game.
- Kyle Schwarber (1+ Home Run: 26%, Yes 26¢): Our Editor's Pick, discussed above, and the single highest price across all five games today.
- Bryce Harper (1+ Home Run: 15%, Yes 15¢): Harper sits comfortably behind Schwarber with only a 2-point pullback.
- Mike Trout (1+ Home Run: 15%, Yes 15¢): Trout remains a threat any time he connects, down a modest 3 points.
- Zach Neto (1+ Home Run: 14%, Yes 14¢): Neto rounds into the double digits with a small 3-point drop.
- Trea Turner (1+ Home Run: 13%, Yes 13¢): Turner stays in the mix despite a similar 3-point pullback.
- Alec Bohm (1+ Home Run: 11%, Yes 11¢): Bohm holds a steady spot in the middle of this board.
- J.T. Realmuto (1+ Home Run: 11%, Yes 11¢): Realmuto sits right alongside Bohm after a matching drop.
- Moisés Ballesteros (1+ Home Run: 10%, Yes 10¢): A 4-point pullback still leaves Ballesteros in the double-digit tier.
- Wade Meckler (1+ Home Run: 8%, Yes 8¢): Meckler rounds out this board with minimal movement.
- Vaughn Grissom (1+ Home Run: 7%, Yes 7¢): Grissom closes out our top ten after a 4-point drop.
A couple of names further down this board only had one active side priced at the time of writing.
Beyond these five games, Polymarket carries home run and player prop markets across the rest of Sunday's MLB slate as well.
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Best Home Run Bets Today: Final Thoughts
Five games, five clear headline power threats, and a board that moved meaningfully throughout the morning as more money came in on the shorter prices.
Ohtani and Schwarber sit at the top of the marquee names, but value shows up further down the board too, particularly with hitters like Contreras and Alvarez who've seen their prices drop since the open without their underlying power profile changing.
If you're building out a broader watchlist, the Polymarket app makes it easy to track these contracts in real time as first pitch approaches for each game.
Whichever names you like best, the best home run bets today and the best MLB odds on this slate are both worth a close look before these lineups are finalized.
We'll keep tracking the best MLB home run picks as more names move throughout the afternoon.
Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $20 trading bonus for new users who sign up.
What are the best MLB odds for home runs today?
Kyle Schwarber (26%) and Shohei Ohtani (17%) carry the highest home run probabilities across today's five-game slate, with several other hitters priced in the 20% range as well.
What are the best home run bets today across the whole slate?
Across all five games, Schwarber, Ohtani, Raleigh, Soto, and Abreu currently sit atop their respective boards as the best home run bets today.
Who is favored to hit a home run in the Red Sox-Yankees game?
Wilyer Abreu leads that board at 21%, just ahead of Ben Rice and Willson Contreras, both at 17%.
What is the Editor's Pick for the Dodgers-Tigers game?
Our Editor's Pick for that matchup is Shohei Ohtani at 17% (Yes 17¢) to hit a home run, the highest-profile pick across today's entire slate.
How do Polymarket home run contracts work?
Each contract resolves Yes if the named player hits at least one home run in the game and No if they don't, with the contract price reflecting the market's implied probability of that outcome.
When do these markets resolve?
Each game's home run contracts resolve once that specific game reaches its final out, based on official MLB box score data.
What does the Polymarket promo code unlock?
Signing up with the Polymarket promo code ACTION unlocks a $20 trading bonus that new users can apply toward these event contracts.
Are there more home run props available beyond these five games?
Yes, Polymarket lists home run and player prop markets for every game on Sunday's MLB schedule, not just the five covered here.
