Wednesday's MLB slate is loaded with home run intrigue, and Polymarket has a prop board for all of it.
We're breaking down the best home run bets today across five games: Rays-Tigers, Phillies-Mariners, Astros-Yankees, Dodgers-Braves, and Rangers-White Sox. Every price below comes straight off the Polymarket board, and each game includes an editor's pick that we're actually putting money on tonight.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: Best Home Run Bets Today
The Rays enter at 78-54 and first in the AL East, riding a strong season built on the league's best team batting average.
The Tigers sit at 62-70 and fourth in the AL Central, having just snapped a six-game losing streak behind a spark from their bullpen.
Freddy Peralta (5-11, 5.33 ERA) starts for Tampa Bay against Troy Melton (7-2, 1.60 ERA) for Detroit, a matchup that tilts the run-prevention edge toward the home dugout even with the Rays' offense clicking.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Junior Caminero (Editor's Pick)
Caminero is priced at 19¢ to go over 0.5 home runs, the highest number on the entire Rays-Tigers board.
He's the middle-of-the-order threat in a Tampa Bay lineup that leads MLB in batting average, and Troy Melton's sharp recent form hasn't come against a bat with this kind of raw power.
We're backing the volume here: Caminero sees pitches in the middle innings when Detroit's bullpen usage becomes less certain.
Buying at 19¢ with a $20 stake gets an average fill price of 19¢, for roughly 105 shares purchased.
- If Caminero hits a home run: shares pay out $1 each, a profit near $85 on the $20 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $20 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
It's a longshot-style trade with real upside, but a single-game home run prop is still a coin flip stacked against the bettor at these odds.
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Rays vs. Tigers MLB Home Run Predictions Today
- Junior Caminero (Home Runs Over 0.5: 19¢): The clear favorite on the board, and the centerpiece of Tampa Bay's lineup against a Detroit staff that's been vulnerable to hard contact in the middle innings.
- Jonathan Aranda (Home Runs Over 0.5: 13¢): Aranda has been a steady on-base presence for the Rays and gets a look here as a complementary piece behind Caminero in the order.
- Spencer Torkelson (Home Runs Over 0.5: 13¢): Detroit's first baseman is priced level with Aranda, reflecting his standing as the Tigers' most consistent power threat during their recent stretch.
- Dillon Dingler (Home Runs Over 0.5: 12¢): Detroit's catcher carries modest but real pop, and his price ticks up slightly given his everyday role in the lineup.
- Yandy Díaz (Home Runs Over 0.5: 12¢): Díaz's contact-first approach caps his price relative to Caminero, but he still checks in above the rest of the Tampa Bay board outside the top two.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: Best Home Run Bets Today
The Phillies are 73-60 and pushing for playoff positioning, while the Mariners sit at 64-69 as they try to salvage the back half of their season.
Jesús Luzardo (11-5, 3.35 ERA) takes the ball for Philadelphia against Bryan Woo (9-8, 4.10 ERA) for Seattle, a matchup between two of the more reliable arms on either staff.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Kyle Schwarber (Editor's Pick)
Schwarber is priced at 25¢ to go over 0.5 home runs, the single highest price of any player across this entire five-game slate.
He's Philadelphia's team leader in hits this season and one of the most pull-heavy, over-the-fence threats in the National League.
Facing Bryan Woo, a pitcher who works heavy in the zone, this is the kind of price that reflects genuine market conviction rather than a longshot flier.
Buying at 25¢ with a $20 stake gets an average fill price of 26¢, for roughly 77 shares purchased.
- If Schwarber hits a home run: shares pay out $1 each, a profit near $57 on the $20 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $20 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
This is the highest-probability home run trade on the board tonight, though even a near coin-flip in raw terms still means the field wins more often than Schwarber does.
Phillies vs. Mariners MLB Home Run Predictions Today
- Kyle Schwarber (Home Runs Over 0.5: 25¢): The slate's top home run price, backed by his team-leading production for Philadelphia and a long track record of over-the-fence power.
- Bryce Harper (Home Runs Over 0.5: 17¢): Harper sits comfortably behind Schwarber as the second-most-priced threat in Philadelphia's order.
- Julio Rodríguez (Home Runs Over 0.5: 13¢): Seattle's centerfielder is the clear top home run threat on the Mariners' side of this board.
- Randy Arozarena (Home Runs Over 0.5: 12¢): Arozarena's price reflects his role as a middle-of-the-order bat for Seattle capable of turning around a fastball.
- Taylor Ward (Home Runs Over 0.5: 12¢): Ward checks in level with Arozarena, giving the Mariners a second look at this price point.
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees: Best Home Run Bets Today
The Yankees have been red hot, winning six of their last seven while taking series from both Baltimore and Toronto, and Cody Bellinger's return has given the lineup a needed jolt.
The Astros are a sub-.500 club that just fired their GM after dropping six of eight games, yet they're still tied for first in a tight AL West race.
This game's home run board is still filling out with only a handful of active contracts, and we'll update this section as Polymarket adds more names ahead of first pitch.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Ben Rice (Editor's Pick)
Rice is priced at 19¢ to go over 0.5 home runs, tied for the top spot on a Yankees-Astros board that's still light on contracts.
He's been a middle-of-the-order piece in a Yankees lineup that just got healthier with Bellinger back, and Houston's rotation has been shaky during its current slide.
The tie at the top with Trent Grisham gives us two paths to the same conclusion, and we're leaning toward Rice given his everyday spot in the order.
Buying at 19¢ with a $20 stake gets an average fill price of 20¢, for roughly 100 shares purchased.
- If Rice hits a home run: shares pay out $1 each, a profit near $80 on the $20 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $20 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
With a payout north of four times the stake, this is a solidly priced power play in a lineup that's trending up.
Astros vs. Yankees MLB Home Run Predictions Today
Only six players had active home run contracts at the time of writing, so this is a shorter board than the rest of tonight's slate.
- Ben Rice (Home Runs Over 0.5: 19¢): Tied for the top price on the board, riding a Yankees lineup that's surging with Bellinger back in the fold.
- Trent Grisham (Home Runs Over 0.5: 19¢): Grisham shares the top price with Rice, giving the Yankees the two most likely home run bats in this matchup.
- Luis Garcia Jr. (Home Runs Over 0.5: 18¢): Houston's best price on the board, reflecting his standing as the Astros' most consistent power bat during their recent skid.
- Cody Bellinger (Home Runs Over 0.5: 15¢): Bellinger's price reflects both his power upside and the fact he's just back from missing time, so the market is pricing in some uncertainty around his timing.
- Spencer Jones (Home Runs Over 0.5: 14¢): Jones rounds out the current board as a lower-probability but still notable power threat for New York.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: Best Home Run Bets Today
The Dodgers are 80-52 and running away with the NL West, with their rotation getting healthier at exactly the right time of the season.
The Braves sit at 77-55, still very much alive in the wild-card picture as they host this midweek set at Truist Park.
Roki Sasaki starts for Los Angeles against AJ Smith-Shawver for Atlanta, a matchup that favors the Dodgers' deep and dangerous lineup regardless of who's on the mound.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Shohei Ohtani (Editor's Pick)
Ohtani is priced at 25¢ to go over 0.5 home runs, tied for the highest price on this entire five-game slate alongside Kyle Schwarber.
He anchors a Dodgers lineup that leads MLB in scoring, and Atlanta's Smith-Shawver is making just his second big league start of the season.
This is about as clean a power matchup as the board offers tonight: an elite bat against an unproven arm in a hitter-friendly spot.
Buying at 25¢ with a $20 stake gets an average fill price of 26¢, for roughly 77 shares purchased.
- If Ohtani hits a home run: shares pay out $1 each, a profit near $57 on the $20 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $20 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
At this price, the market is treating Ohtani as roughly a one-in-four shot, which lines up with how often the sport's best power hitters actually clear the fence on a given night.
Dodgers vs. Braves MLB Home Run Predictions Today
- Shohei Ohtani (Home Runs Over 0.5: 25¢): Tied for the top price on the slate, and the clear headline bat in a Dodgers lineup that leads the league in scoring.
- Matt Olson (Home Runs Over 0.5: 19¢): Atlanta's first baseman is comfortably the top home run price on the Braves' side of the board.
- Max Muncy (Home Runs Over 0.5: 18¢): Muncy's patient, pull-heavy approach keeps him firmly in the second tier of Dodgers power threats behind Ohtani.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (Home Runs Over 0.5: 17¢): Acuña's price reflects his standing as Atlanta's most explosive all-around bat even in a lineup that's been streaky.
- Drake Baldwin (Home Runs Over 0.5: 15¢): Baldwin is tied with Michael Harris II for the next tier down, giving Atlanta multiple looks at this price point.
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: Best Home Run Bets Today
The Rangers are 66-67 and fighting to stay in the wild-card conversation, while the White Sox sit at 69-63 after a statement win over Jacob deGrom on Tuesday.
Chicago sends out Sean Burke, who's been excellent at home all year, as the White Sox look to close out this series on their own turf.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Munetaka Murakami (Editor's Pick)
Murakami is priced at 18¢ to go over 0.5 home runs, the third-highest price on Chicago's side of this board.
He's shown real raw power potential in his rookie season, and Sean Burke's strong home form hasn't come against a bat with this kind of bat speed.
We like the value here relative to the two names priced above him, since Murakami's power ceiling is arguably the highest of anyone in this lineup.
Buying at 18¢ with a $20 stake gets an average fill price of 19¢, for roughly 105 shares purchased.
- If Murakami hits a home run: shares pay out $1 each, a profit near $85 on the $20 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $20 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
It's a boom-or-bust trade on a young slugger, with a payout well north of five times the stake if it connects.
Rangers vs. White Sox MLB Home Run Predictions Today
- Corey Seager (Home Runs Over 0.5: 20¢): The top price on this board, backed by Seager's standing as Texas's most dangerous middle-of-the-order bat.
- Miguel Vargas (Home Runs Over 0.5: 19¢): Vargas sits just behind Seager as the top power threat on the White Sox side after Tuesday's breakout offensive night.
- Joc Pederson (Home Runs Over 0.5: 18¢): Pederson is tied for third, fitting his profile as a lefty bat with real over-the-fence pop against right-handed pitching.
- Munetaka Murakami (Home Runs Over 0.5: 18¢): Murakami shares the third-highest price on the board and is our editor's pick for this game.
- Wyatt Langford (Home Runs Over 0.5: 17¢): Langford rounds out the top five, reflecting his role as an everyday power bat in the middle of Texas's lineup.
There are more games and prop markets available on Polymarket beyond the five covered in this piece, so it's worth checking the full MLB board before locking in any trades.
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Best Home Run Bets Today: Final Thoughts
Across all five games, the pattern holds: the highest home run prices belong to established, everyday sluggers like Schwarber, Ohtani, and Seager, while the deeper value sits with complementary bats a tier below.
That's the whole appeal of shopping the full board rather than locking in on the obvious name, and it's why we've built out a full Polymarket app comparison alongside this piece.
For anyone building their own MLB home run predictions today, the tightest tiers, like Pederson and Murakami at 18¢, or Rice and Grisham at 19¢, are usually where the real value hides.
Whichever game you land on, check the full prediction markets hub for line movement before you trade.
MLB Home Run Props FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $20 trading bonus for new users who sign up and fund their account.
What are the best home run bets today?
Based on Polymarket's current prices, the best home run bets today are Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani, who are both priced at 25¢ to clear the fence, the highest marks across this five-game slate.
Who is favored to hit a home run tonight?
Schwarber (Phillies) and Ohtani (Dodgers) share the top price on the board tonight at 25¢, followed closely by Corey Seager (Rangers) at 20¢ and Junior Caminero (Rays) at 19¢.
What is a notable home run prop on tonight's board?
Ben Rice and Trent Grisham are tied at 19¢ for the top home run price in the Astros-Yankees game, notable given how few contracts are active on that board so far.
How do Polymarket home run contracts work?
Each contract asks whether a specific player will record over or under 0.5 home runs in a game. Buying "Over" at a given price pays out $1 per share if that player homers, and $0 if they don't.
What is the editor's pick tonight?
Our editor's picks tonight are Junior Caminero (Rays), Kyle Schwarber (Phillies), Ben Rice (Astros/Yankees), Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers), and Munetaka Murakami (White Sox), each backed by real trades placed on the board.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code?
Sign up for a Polymarket account, enter the promo code ACTION during registration or your first deposit, and fund your account to unlock the $20 trading bonus.
When do these home run markets resolve?
Each home run market resolves once its corresponding game is completed, based on the official box score as reported by MLB.
Are there more games available beyond this five-game slate?
Yes. Polymarket lists home run and other player prop markets for the full MLB slate each day, well beyond the five games covered in this piece.
