Friday, Aug 28 brings a full eight-game MLB slate, and Polymarket's home run markets are loaded with value from Wrigley Field to Oracle Park.
This guide breaks down the best home run bets today and the best MLB home run picks across all eight games, ranking the top 10 board-listed sluggers per matchup.
We're also flagging our single favorite play in each game as that matchup's Editor's Pick, worked out to the last share.
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Reds vs Cubs: Best Home Run Bets Today
Cincinnati (63-71, fifth in the NL Central) visits Wrigley Field to face a Cubs club sitting second in the division at 76-58.
Reds rookie right-hander Rhett Lowder (5-8, 5.13 ERA) squares off with Chicago's David Peterson (7-7, 5.17 ERA) in a matchup where neither starter has been especially sharp.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Pete Crow-Armstrong (Editor's Pick)
Pete Crow-Armstrong has spent this season in the middle of the NL MVP conversation with Shohei Ohtani, and it shows on the trade ticket.
He's the only player on this entire eight-game board priced above 20 cents on any home run line tonight.
The matchup helps: Cincinnati's Rhett Lowder carries a 5.13 ERA, and Crow-Armstrong has feasted on shaky right-handed starters for a Cubs offense that's held its own in a tight NL Central race.
The ticket shows a $100 buy on Yes at an average price of 22 cents, working out to roughly 455 shares (100 ÷ 0.22), each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Crow-Armstrong homers: the position pays out around $434 to win, per the ticket, for a profit of roughly $334 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 is gone, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's roughly 4.3-to-1 on a play that's cleared this line close to one in five times this season, a swing we're comfortable taking to open the slate.
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Reds vs Cubs Home Run Props: Top 10
Both sides are actively priced across this board, so every line below shows a Yes and No price straight from the ticket.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (Home Run 1+: 22¢ Yes / 79¢ No): Tops the board here, and the Editor's Pick above breaks down exactly why.
- Ian Happ (Home Run 1+: 16¢ Yes / 85¢ No): Switch-hitting power gives him a shot from either side against Cincinnati's staff.
- Eugenio Suárez (Home Run 1+: 15¢ Yes / 86¢ No): One of the more consistent power bats in this game, even on the road.
- Seiya Suzuki (Home Run 1+: 15¢ Yes / 86¢ No): Pull-side pop plays well against a Reds staff that's given up its share of fly-ball damage.
- Michael Busch (Home Run 1+: 14¢ Yes / 87¢ No): A middle-of-the-order role gives him plenty of looks at mistakes from Lowder.
- Sal Stewart (Home Run 1+: 14¢ Yes / 87¢ No): A legitimate power bat Cincinnati has leaned on down the stretch.
- Alex Bregman (Home Run 1+: 13¢ Yes / 88¢ No): Veteran approach keeps him a threat even against tougher right-handed pitching.
- Elly De La Cruz (Home Run 1+: 13¢ Yes / 88¢ No): Explosive bat speed means the price undersells his raw upside on any given swing.
- Matt McLain (Home Run 1+: 13¢ Yes / 92¢ No): Bat-to-ball skills cap the home run odds, but the price still reflects real pop.
- Dane Myers (Home Run 1+: 10¢ Yes / 92¢ No): The board's longest shot in this game, priced accordingly.
Dodgers vs Tigers: Home Run Props to Target
The Dodgers (80-54, best record in the NL) roll into Comerica Park for a Tarik Skubal reunion game, his first start against Detroit since the blockbuster deadline trade that sent the two-time Cy Young winner to Los Angeles.
Skubal (8-7, 2.91 ERA) faces Detroit's Drew Anderson (4-5, 4.09 ERA) for a Tigers club that's fallen to 62-71 in a disappointing season.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Shohei Ohtani (Editor's Pick)
Ohtani has been locked in a season-long MVP battle with Pete Crow-Armstrong, and the Dodgers own the best record in the National League.
Tonight's spotlight belongs to Skubal, but Detroit right-hander Drew Anderson's 4.09 ERA gives Ohtani's bat a real look too.
The ticket shows a $100 buy on Yes at an average price of 21 cents, for roughly 476 shares (100 ÷ 0.21) at $1 apiece if the market resolves Yes.
- If Ohtani homers: the position returns about $455 to win, a profit of roughly $355 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost outright.
That's better than 4-to-1 on a hitter who's cleared 20% on this line before, a fair risk given the spotlight on this rivalry-flavored matchup.
Dodgers vs Tigers Home Run Props: Top 10
Every contract below is actively priced on both sides.
- Shohei Ohtani (Home Run 1+: 21¢ Yes / 80¢ No): The Editor's Pick above lays out the full case.
- Max Muncy (Home Run 1+: 19¢ Yes / 82¢ No): Second on the board, and a real threat against a Tigers bullpen that's leaked runs all year.
- Mookie Betts (Home Run 1+: 12¢ Yes / 91¢ No): Steady contact skills mean this price is more floor than ceiling.
- Freddie Freeman (Home Run 1+: 11¢ Yes / 90¢ No): Line-drive power still shows up against a struggling Detroit staff.
- Kyle Tucker (Home Run 1+: 11¢ Yes / 90¢ No): A dangerous bat in a lineup that's been the majors' best all season.
- Spencer Torkelson (Home Run 1+: 11¢ Yes / 91¢ No): Detroit's top home run threat, even in a lost season for the club.
- Eduardo Valencia (Home Run 1+: 10¢ Yes / 91¢ No): A developing power bat getting everyday reps for the Tigers.
- Hao-Yu Lee (Home Run 1+: 10¢ Yes / 92¢ No): Priced as a longer shot, but capable of a surprise swing.
- Tommy Edman (Home Run 1+: 10¢ Yes / 92¢ No): More of a contact bat, so this price reflects opportunity more than raw power.
- Dillon Dingler (Home Run 1+: 9¢ Yes / 92¢ No): The board's longest shot in this game.
Astros vs Mets: Home Run Props to Target
Houston (67-67) is trying to salvage its wild-card push at Citi Field against a Mets club that's fallen to 60-74 and well off the pace in the NL East.
Hunter Brown (3-3, 3.51 ERA) starts for the Astros against New York's Christian Scott (4-3, 3.73 ERA).
Best Home Run Prop Today – Daulton Varsho (Editor's Pick)
Varsho has cooled off some in his first year in Houston, but he's still a switch-hitter who can turn on a mistake.
New York's Christian Scott carries a 3.73 ERA, and the Mets sit last in the NL East race at 60-74.
Yordan Alvarez's 36 home runs make him the board's clear favorite in this game, but we like the value further down the list with Varsho.
The ticket shows a $100 buy on Yes at an average price of 14.43 cents, a touch above the 14% board price, reflecting some slippage on the order, for roughly 693 shares (100 ÷ 0.1443).
- If Varsho homers: the position pays out about $659 to win, a profit near $559.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost.
Nearly 6.6-to-1, this is a bigger swing than tonight's Ohtani or Crow-Armstrong plays, but the everyday lineup spot makes it worth the risk.
Astros vs Mets Home Run Props: Top 10
All 10 contracts below are actively priced on both sides.
- Yordan Alvarez (Home Run 1+: 24¢ Yes / 77¢ No): Houston's clear top threat, and it's not close, with 36 home runs already this season.
- Luis Robert Jr. (Home Run 1+: 17¢ Yes / 91¢ No): Explosive bat speed makes him a live threat in any at-bat.
- Christian Walker (Home Run 1+: 16¢ Yes / 85¢ No): A steady source of extra-base power in the middle of Houston's order.
- Daulton Varsho (Home Run 1+: 14¢ Yes / 88¢ No): The Editor's Pick above breaks down the full case.
- Francisco Lindor (Home Run 1+: 13¢ Yes / 88¢ No): A switch-hitting threat capable of doing damage against either arm.
- Jared Young (Home Run 1+: 13¢ Yes / 91¢ No): One of the few players on this board trending up rather than down today.
- Isaac Paredes (Home Run 1+: 12¢ Yes / 89¢ No): A pull-heavy approach that plays well against a Mets staff missing a bit of bite.
- A.J. Ewing (Home Run 1+: 11¢ Yes / 93¢ No): Getting an everyday look, which keeps this price from drifting even lower.
- Jose Altuve (Home Run 1+: 10¢ Yes / 92¢ No): More of a contact-first bat, so the price reflects opportunity over raw power.
- Carson Benge (Home Run 1+: 8¢ Yes / 93¢ No): The board's longest shot in this game.
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Red Sox vs Yankees: Home Run Props to Target
The Yankees (75-58) host Boston (73-60) at Yankee Stadium in a pivotal AL East series, with New York sitting four games behind Tampa Bay for the division lead.
Boston lefty Patrick Sandoval (1-2, 4.54 ERA) faces Cam Schlittler (11-6, 2.16 ERA), who's anchored the Yankees' rotation all season.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Ben Rice (Editor's Pick)
The Yankees are chasing Tampa Bay for the AL East lead, sitting four games back heading into this pivotal series with Boston.
Ben Rice has emerged as a middle-of-the-order threat, and he draws Boston left-hander Patrick Sandoval, who is just 1-2 with a 4.54 ERA this season.
Yankee Stadium's short porch to right field only sweetens a matchup we like for a pull-heavy left-handed bat.
The ticket shows a $100 buy on Yes at an average price of 16 cents, for exactly 625 shares (100 ÷ 0.16) at $1 apiece if it resolves Yes.
- If Rice homers: the position pays out $595 to win, a profit of $495 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the entire $100 is lost, since the contract settles all-or-nothing.
Just under 6-to-1 on a hitter getting a favorable park and a shaky opposing starter, this is the pick we're most comfortable standing behind tonight.
Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Props: Top 10
Every line below is actively priced on both sides of the board.
- Paul Goldschmidt (Home Run 1+: 17¢ Yes / 88¢ No): Still capable of turning around a mistake even in the veteran stage of his career.
- Trent Grisham (Home Run 1+: 17¢ Yes / 87¢ No): Tied for the top price in this game, with a swing built for pull-side power.
- Wilyer Abreu (Home Run 1+: 16¢ Yes / 85¢ No): One of Boston's more aggressive hitters against soft contact.
- Ben Rice (Home Run 1+: 16¢ Yes / 85¢ No): The Editor's Pick above breaks down the full case.
- Amed Rosario (Home Run 1+: 14¢ Yes / 90¢ No): More of a contact bat, so this price reflects opportunity over raw power.
- Cody Bellinger (Home Run 1+: 13¢ Yes / 88¢ No): A pull-heavy lefty swing that plays well in this ballpark.
- Willson Contreras (Home Run 1+: 13¢ Yes / 88¢ No): A steady source of extra-base pop from the catcher spot.
- George Lombard Jr. (Home Run 1+: 12¢ Yes / 93¢ No): A developing bat getting a look against a shakier Boston starter.
- Nick Sogard (Home Run 1+: 10¢ Yes / 93¢ No): Priced as a longer shot in this spot.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (Home Run 1+: 8¢ Yes / 93¢ No): The board's longest shot in this game.
Mariners vs Blue Jays: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today
Seattle (64-70) visits Rogers Center to face a Toronto club at 65-70, with both teams effectively out of the playoff picture.
Mariners right-hander Emerson Hancock (7-7, 3.37 ERA) faces Toronto ace Dylan Cease (8-5, 2.37 ERA), who leads the American League in strikeouts.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Kazuma Okamoto (Editor's Pick)
Okamoto has quietly become Toronto's top home run threat, and he gets a look at Seattle right-hander Emerson Hancock, who carries a 3.37 ERA.
Dylan Cease taking the mound for Toronto tonight means the Blue Jays' lineup should stay locked in offensively behind their ace.
The ticket shows a $100 buy on Yes at an average price of 16 cents, for exactly 625 shares (100 ÷ 0.16).
- If Okamoto homers: the payout is $595 to win, a profit of $495.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
Another play just under 6-to-1, and one of three home run props tonight priced exactly the same by the market.
Mariners vs Blue Jays Home Run Props: Top 10
Every contract below is actively priced on both sides, making this one of our favorite best MLB home run picks boards to shop for value tonight.
- Dominic Canzone (Home Run 1+: 16¢ Yes / 90¢ No): Tied for the top price on this board tonight.
- Jesús Sánchez (Home Run 1+: 16¢ Yes / 89¢ No): A pull-heavy swing that keeps him in the mix at the top of this list.
- Kazuma Okamoto (Home Run 1+: 16¢ Yes / 85¢ No): The Editor's Pick above lays out the full case.
- George Springer (Home Run 1+: 13¢ Yes / 90¢ No): Still a threat to run into one, even in the twilight of his prime.
- Julio Rodríguez (Home Run 1+: 11¢ Yes / 91¢ No): Explosive bat speed keeps his ceiling higher than this price suggests.
- Randy Arozarena (Home Run 1+: 11¢ Yes / 91¢ No): An aggressive approach that plays well against a Toronto bullpen that's leaked a few homers lately.
- Taylor Ward (Home Run 1+: 11¢ Yes / 95¢ No): A steady source of extra-base pop in Seattle's lineup.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Home Run 1+: 11¢ Yes / 91¢ No): More of a contact-first bat lately, so the price reflects opportunity over recent form.
- Josh Naylor (Home Run 1+: 11¢ Yes / 93¢ No): Capable of turning around a mistake from either side of the plate.
- Nathan Lukes (Home Run 1+: 10¢ Yes / 95¢ No): The board's longest shot on this list.
Pirates vs Cardinals: Home Run Props to Target
Pittsburgh (65-70) visits Busch Stadium to face a Cardinals club at 67-68, both fading from the wild-card picture.
Jared Jones (2-5, 4.76 ERA) starts for the Pirates against St. Louis lefty Quinn Mathews (0-2, 6.43 ERA).
Best Home Run Prop Today – Oneil Cruz (Editor's Pick)
Cruz has been Pittsburgh's best power source over the last 10 games, with three home runs and eight RBI in that stretch.
Tonight's matchup is about as friendly as it gets: Cardinals pitching has a 7.12 ERA over the last 10 games and has allowed 11 home runs in that span.
St. Louis starter Quinn Mathews takes the mound with an 0-2 record and a 6.43 ERA this year.
The ticket shows a $100 buy on Yes at an average price of 14.13 cents, for roughly 708 shares (100 ÷ 0.1413).
- If Cruz homers: the position pays out about $673 to win, a profit near $573.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 is gone.
At roughly 6.7-to-1, this is the best pure power matchup on the slate given how much St. Louis pitching has allowed lately.
Pirates vs Cardinals Home Run Props: Top 10
Every line below is actively priced on both sides of the board.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (Home Run 1+: 16¢ Yes / 85¢ No): The top price in this game tonight, ahead of the Editor's Pick below.
- Oneil Cruz (Home Run 1+: 14¢ Yes / 87¢ No): The Editor's Pick above breaks down the full case against a shaky Cardinals staff.
- Alec Burleson (Home Run 1+: 13¢ Yes / 88¢ No): A steady source of pull-side pop for St. Louis.
- Jordan Walker (Home Run 1+: 13¢ Yes / 88¢ No): Explosive bat speed keeps his ceiling higher than this number suggests.
- Brandon Lowe (Home Run 1+: 13¢ Yes / 88¢ No): A pull-heavy left-handed swing worth watching against Pittsburgh's staff.
- JJ Wetherholt (Home Run 1+: 12¢ Yes / 92¢ No): A developing bat getting everyday reps for the Cardinals.
- Bryan Reynolds (Home Run 1+: 11¢ Yes / 91¢ No): A consistent extra-base threat even in a down year for Pittsburgh's offense.
- Jimmy Crooks (Home Run 1+: 10¢ Yes / 94¢ No): Priced as a longer shot from the catcher spot.
- Iván Herrera (Home Run 1+: 8¢ Yes / 93¢ No): More of a contact bat, so the price reflects opportunity over raw power.
- José Fermín (Home Run 1+: 8¢ Yes / 96¢ No): The board's longest shot in this game.
Phillies vs Angels: Home Run Props to Target
Philadelphia (74-60) visits Angel Stadium against an Angels club at 52-82, the second-worst record in baseball.
Phillies right-hander Andrew Painter (3-8, 6.04 ERA) faces Los Angeles lefty Reid Detmers (4-8, 3.62 ERA).
Best Home Run Prop Today – Kyle Schwarber (Editor's Pick)
Schwarber leads the entire slate at 25% on this line, and the matchup explains why.
Philadelphia's Andrew Painter carries a 6.04 ERA this season, and the Phillies have gotten hot at the plate, with Bryce Harper hitting .400 with two home runs over his last 10 games.
The Angels, at 52-82, have struggled all year, and Schwarber has made a career out of punishing exactly this kind of matchup.
The ticket shows a $100 buy on Yes at an average price of 25 cents, for exactly 400 shares (100 ÷ 0.25).
- If Schwarber homers: the position pays out about $383 to win, a profit of roughly $283.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost outright.
Just under 3.8-to-1, this is the shortest price of the night's Editor's Picks, and the matchup context makes it the safest of the bunch.
Phillies vs Angels Home Run Props: Top 10
Every contract below is actively priced on both sides of the board.
- Kyle Schwarber (Home Run 1+: 25¢ Yes / 76¢ No): The Editor's Pick above breaks down why he's the top price of the entire slate.
- Mike Trout (Home Run 1+: 18¢ Yes / 84¢ No): Still a genuine power threat when healthy and locked in.
- J.T. Realmuto (Home Run 1+: 17¢ Yes / 89¢ No): A veteran bat that keeps producing extra-base pop from behind the plate.
- Bryce Harper (Home Run 1+: 16¢ Yes / 85¢ No): Hitting .400 over his last 10 games, one of the hottest bats on this entire board.
- Zach Neto (Home Run 1+: 16¢ Yes / 85¢ No): A pull-heavy swing that gives him real thump for a middle infielder.
- Jose Siri (Home Run 1+: 14¢ Yes / 88¢ No): Explosive bat speed keeps his ceiling higher than this price implies.
- Alec Bohm (Home Run 1+: 15¢ Yes / 90¢ No): A steady source of extra-base damage in Philadelphia's lineup.
- Moisés Ballesteros (Home Run 1+: 14¢ Yes / 89¢ No): A developing power bat getting a look against a struggling Angels staff.
- Trea Turner (Home Run 1+: 14¢ Yes / 88¢ No): More speed than raw power, but capable of turning around a mistake.
- Vaughn Grissom (Home Run 1+: 11¢ Yes / 94¢ No): The board's longest shot in this game.
Diamondbacks vs Giants: Home Run Props to Target
Arizona (71-64) is still fighting for a wild-card spot at Oracle Park against a rebuilding Giants club at 55-79.
Diamondbacks right-hander Kohl Drake (0-1, 5.40 ERA) faces San Francisco's Blade Tidwell (0-0, 3.58 ERA), with Arizona's rotation shuffled by injuries and roster moves this week.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Rafael Devers (Editor's Pick)
Devers has settled in as the middle-of-the-order anchor for a rebuilding Giants club, and he gets a look at Arizona right-hander Kohl Drake, who is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA this season.
The Diamondbacks' rotation has been shuffled by injuries and roster moves this week, which works in the Giants' favor tonight.
San Francisco has hit 13 home runs over its last 10 games, and Devers has been a big part of that surge.
The ticket shows a $100 buy on Yes at an average price of 14 cents, for roughly 714 shares (100 ÷ 0.14).
- If Devers homers: the position pays out about $679 to win, a profit near $579.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost.
Almost 6.8-to-1 to close out the slate, and given how hot the Giants' offense has been, we like the number.
Diamondbacks vs Giants Home Run Props: Top 10
Note that Drew Cavanaugh's line below is priced at 2+ home runs rather than the standard 1+ threshold, so it isn't directly comparable to the rest of this list.
- Corbin Carroll (Home Run 1+: 16¢ Yes / 86¢ No): Arizona's top home run threat tonight, tied for the highest price in the game.
- Drew Cavanaugh (Home Run 2+: 16¢ Yes / 99¢ No): Priced at the 2+ threshold, a much tougher bar to clear than the rest of this list.
- Lars Nootbaar (Home Run 1+: 16¢ Yes / 89¢ No): Tied for the top price on the standard 1+ line tonight.
- Max Kepler (Home Run 1+: 14¢ Yes / 91¢ No): A pull-heavy left-handed swing that plays well at Oracle Park's shorter porch.
- Rafael Devers (Home Run 1+: 14¢ Yes / 87¢ No): The Editor's Pick above breaks down the full case.
- Nate Furman (Home Run 1+: 12¢ Yes / 96¢ No): A developing bat getting a look against a shuffled Arizona rotation.
- Drew Gilbert (Home Run 1+: 11¢ Yes / 94¢ No): More speed and contact than raw power, but capable of a surprise swing.
- Gabriel Moreno (Home Run 1+: 11¢ Yes / 94¢ No): A steady extra-base threat from behind the plate.
- Geraldo Perdomo (Home Run 1+: 9¢ Yes / 94¢ No): More of a table-setter, so the price reflects opportunity over recent power.
- Turner Hill (Home Run 1+: 8¢ Yes / 96¢ No): The board's longest shot to close out the slate.
That's the eight games we're covering tonight, but Polymarket carries additional MLB matchups and prop categories beyond home runs, so it's worth checking the full board before locking anything in.
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Best MLB Home Run Picks: Final Thoughts
Eight games, eight Editor's Picks, and a home run board that offers something for both cautious and aggressive traders tonight.
Kyle Schwarber's 25% price is the shortest number among our best home run bets today, while Rafael Devers and Oneil Cruz offer the deepest value among our featured plays.
If you want to track all of tonight's action in one place, the full prediction markets hub keeps every board updated as lines move.
Most of these props will keep shifting until first pitch in each game, so checking back closer to game time through the Polymarket app is worth doing before locking in a position.
For promo offers across other exchanges, the promo codes hub rounds up current bonuses in one spot.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and do not guarantee future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
New users can lock in the current promo code ACTION, which unlocks a $20 trading bonus.
What are the best home run bets today across the full slate?
Our top plays span all eight games, with Kyle Schwarber (25%), Pete Crow-Armstrong (22%), and Shohei Ohtani (21%) carrying the highest prices on the board tonight.
Where can I find the best MLB home run picks for tonight's games?
This piece ranks the top 10 home run props for all eight games on tonight's slate, plus a dedicated Editor's Pick breakdown for each matchup.
What is the Editor's Pick for tonight's slate?
Our flagship pick tonight is Ben Rice's home run prop against Boston, priced at 16 cents with the Yankees chasing the AL East lead at home.
Who is favored across tonight's games?
The Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, and Phillies are moneyline favorites in their respective matchups, while the Reds, Mariners, and Diamondbacks are underdogs on the board tonight.
How do Polymarket home run contracts work?
Each contract asks whether a specific player hits at least one home run (or, in some cases, a higher threshold) in that game. Yes and No shares trade between 1 and 99 cents based on demand, and each winning share pays out $1.
How do I use the promo code to start trading?
Apply the promo code shown above during signup, then make a deposit and place your first trade to unlock the bonus before tonight's first pitch.
When do these home run markets resolve?
Each contract resolves at the conclusion of its individual game, based on the official box score for that matchup.
Are there more games on Polymarket tonight beyond these eight?
Yes. Polymarket carries additional MLB matchups and prop categories tonight beyond the eight games and home run props covered in this piece.
Is there risk to trading Editor's Pick style trades like the ones in this piece?
Yes. Every trade highlighted here settles all-or-nothing, so a missed home run means the full stake is lost even on our highest-conviction plays.
