Wednesday's MLB slate hands us two very different games, and Polymarket has props priced for both.
The Padres and Reds close out their series in Cincinnati, with San Diego leaning on newly acquired starter Casey Mize to lock down a wild card cushion.
Meanwhile, the division-leading Braves try to salvage a split in Washington before a massive weekend set with the Phillies.
We've got Reds vs Padres predictions, Braves vs Nationals predictions, and two Editor's Picks for each game below, along with the current Polymarket promo code: ACTION, which allows new users to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!
Reds vs Padres Predictions: Player Props and Best Bets
The Padres (73-66) sit second in the NL West after dropping Tuesday's game 4-3, with Fernando Tatis Jr. hitting a ninth-inning solo shot that came up just short.
The Reds (66-73) get Brandon Williamson back off the injured list for the rubber match, while San Diego hands the ball to Casey Mize, who's still finding his footing after being dealt from Detroit at the deadline.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Fernando Tatis Jr. (Editor's Pick)
Tatis Jr. sits atop tonight's home run board at 20¢, tied with JJ Bleday for the highest price on this game's entire home run list.
He went deep off Emilio Pagán in the ninth inning Tuesday, his second homer of the series, and he does damage from both sides of the plate at Great American Ball Park.
Williamson is making his first start off the injured list, and rust plus a hitter-friendly park is exactly the combination we want to back against a bat running hot.
We're buying Yes on Tatis Jr. 1+ home runs tonight.
The board has this contract at 20¢, but our $100 order pushed the average price to 20.21¢, since larger orders move the book.
That works out to roughly 494.8 shares ($100 ÷ 20.21¢), each worth $1 if the contract resolves Yes.
- If Tatis Jr. hits a home run: the shares pay out $1 each, for a $472.28 payout and a $372.28 profit on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
It's a longshot price with a nearly 4.7x payout multiple, so we're not betting the house here, just taking a shot at a hitter who's shown he can turn on anything left over the plate this series.
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Best Total Bases Prop Today – Elly De La Cruz (Editor's Pick)
De La Cruz is priced at 45¢ for 2+ total bases, the second-highest number on this game's total bases board behind only Tatis Jr.
He delivered the go-ahead RBI single Tuesday night and is one of the fastest players in baseball, which means extra bases come easily once he puts a ball in play.
He also draws a starter, Mize, who's making just his first turn through this rotation in a Padres uniform, still adjusting to a new home ballpark and a new team.
We're buying Yes on De La Cruz 2+ total bases.
The board price is 45¢, and our $100 order filled at that same 45¢ average, working out to roughly 222.2 shares ($100 ÷ 45¢).
- If De La Cruz records 2+ total bases: the shares pay out $1 each, for a $215.13 payout and a $115.13 profit on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
This is close to a coin-flip price, just over 2x on the payout multiple, about as balanced a risk/reward as this board offers tonight.
Padres (58%, Yes 58¢)
San Diego is priced at 58¢ to win outright, up 4% on the day, with Casey Mize on the mound in his new uniform.
Reds (42%, Yes 42¢)
Cincinnati sits at 42¢, giving Williamson's return from the injured list only a modest vote of confidence at home.
Padres -1.5 Runs (46% Yes, 54% No)
San Diego winning by two or more runs jumped 15% on the day to 46¢, suggesting the market thinks this one could get away from Cincinnati if the Padres get ahead early.
Over 9.5 Runs (50% Yes, 51% No)
The total sits almost dead even at 50¢, with both bullpens already taxed from the first two games of this series.
First Five Innings Winner
The Padres are priced at 50¢ to lead after five, the Reds at 37¢, and a tie sits at just 15¢, all three sliding hard on the day as the board leans toward a decisive result early.
Home Runs
Home run props for this game, ranked by price:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (1+ HR: Yes 20¢, No 81¢): Top of the board, and he's already gone deep twice in this series.
- JJ Bleday (1+ HR: Yes 20¢, No 82¢): Tied for the game's highest home run price on the Reds' side of the ledger.
- Elly De La Cruz (1+ HR: Yes 19¢, No 82¢): Power/speed combo that keeps him in play for the long ball most nights.
- Manny Machado (1+ HR: Yes 19¢, No 83¢): Steady veteran power, priced right alongside the Reds' top bats.
- Sal Stewart (1+ HR: Yes 19¢, No 82¢): Dropped 21% on the day, one of the sharpest moves on this board.
- Jackson Merrill (1+ HR: Yes 18¢, No 83¢): Also down 22%, suggesting the market pulled back on Padres power against Williamson.
- Héctor Rodríguez (1+ HR: Yes 17¢, No 88¢): Priced as a contact-over-power bat tonight.
- Tyler Stephenson (1+ HR: Yes 17¢, No 90¢): Modest home run price for a catcher who profiles more for hits than power.
- Austin Hays (1+ HR: Yes 16¢, No 94¢): Priced as a fringe home run threat facing Mize.
- Ethan Salas (1+ HR: Yes 16¢, No 91¢): One of the few Padres bats to tick up, gaining 3% on the day.
- Ty France (1+ HR: Yes 16¢, No 88¢): Gap-to-gap hitter without much home run price to speak of.
- Luis Campusano (1+ HR: Yes 15¢, No 99¢): Backup-catcher pop, priced accordingly.
- Xander Bogaerts (1+ HR: Yes 14¢, No 90¢): Sits in the middle of the pack on power expectation tonight.
- Dane Myers (1+ HR: Yes 13¢, No 95¢): Depth outfield bat with a modest power price.
- Matt McLain (1+ HR: Yes 12¢, No 91¢): Down 5% on the day as the board leans away from Padres power.
- Jake Cronenworth (1+ HR: Yes 11¢, No 96¢): Priced more for contact than pop in this one.
- Samad Taylor (1+ HR: Yes 10¢, No 96¢): Speed-first profile, so the home run price stays low.
- Juan Brito (1+ HR: Yes 10¢, No 98¢): Deep in the Reds' order, priced as a long shot for power.
- Edwin Arroyo (1+ HR: Yes 9¢, No 98¢): The board's longest home run price for this game.
Hits
Hits props for this game, ranked by price:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (2+ Hits: Yes 36¢, No 65¢): Down 2% on the day, but still the game's top multi-hit price.
- Jackson Merrill (2+ Hits: Yes 33¢, No 69¢): Ticked up 3%, one of the few Padres bats trending in the right direction.
- Manny Machado (2+ Hits: Yes 31¢, No 70¢): Also up 2%, riding the same modest uptick as Merrill.
- Sal Stewart (1+ Hits: Yes 69¢, No 32¢): Steady everyday bat priced as a strong bet just to reach base once.
- Ty France (1+ Hits: Yes 69¢, No 33¢): Down 25% on the day, still comfortably the board's favorite for a single hit.
- Xander Bogaerts (1+ Hits: Yes 69¢, No 35¢): Fell 14% but remains a heavy favorite to reach base.
- Héctor Rodríguez (1+ Hits: Yes 67¢, No 35¢): Down 18%, still priced as a likely single-hit outcome.
- Elly De La Cruz (1+ Hits: Yes 66¢, No 35¢): Backed heavily to reach base at least once tonight.
- Samad Taylor (1+ Hits: Yes 65¢, No 37¢): Down 17%, still favored for a hit.
- Austin Hays (1+ Hits: Yes 64¢, No 39¢): Fell 19% but still sits above the coin-flip line.
- Dane Myers (1+ Hits: Yes 63¢, No 38¢): Also down 19%, tracking the same pullback as the rest of the Reds' lineup.
- Tyler Stephenson (1+ Hits: Yes 62¢, No 40¢): Down a sharp 32% on the day.
- JJ Bleday (1+ Hits: Yes 61¢, No 41¢): The board's biggest single-hit mover, down 33%.
- Jake Cronenworth (1+ Hits: Yes 59¢, No 44¢): Down 19%, still favored to reach base.
- Luis Campusano (1+ Hits: Yes 59¢, No 43¢): Fell 24%, one of the sharper drops on this list.
- Juan Brito (1+ Hits: Yes 57¢, No 48¢): Down 20%, now sitting close to even money.
- Matt McLain (1+ Hits: Yes 56¢, No 46¢): The board's steepest single-hit drop tonight, down 38%.
- Edwin Arroyo (1+ Hits: Yes 54¢, No 47¢): Down 30%, now essentially a coin flip.
Total Bases
Total bases props for this game, ranked by price:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (2+ Total Bases: Yes 53¢, No 50¢): Up 1%, the top total bases price on the board.
- Jackson Merrill (2+ Total Bases: Yes 48¢, No 55¢): Up 3%, tracking the same uptick seen in his hits prop.
- Manny Machado (2+ Total Bases: Yes 47¢, No 54¢): Sits just under coin-flip for extra bases tonight.
- Elly De La Cruz (2+ Total Bases: Yes 45¢, No 58¢): Up 3%, our Editor's Pick for this category above.
- Sal Stewart (2+ Total Bases: Yes 45¢, No 56¢): Up 1%, right in line with De La Cruz.
- Ty France (2+ Total Bases: Yes 44¢, No 57¢): Down 4% after also sliding on the hits board.
- Héctor Rodríguez (2+ Total Bases: Yes 43¢, No 59¢): Middle of the pack for extra-base pop.
- Xander Bogaerts (2+ Total Bases: Yes 43¢, No 61¢): Similar price to Rodríguez, both sitting under 50%.
- Ethan Salas (2+ Total Bases: Yes 41¢, No 70¢): Down 5%, cooling off from his uptick in the home run market.
- JJ Bleday (2+ Total Bases: Yes 40¢, No 62¢): Down 6%, matching the pullback seen across his other props.
- Tyler Stephenson (2+ Total Bases: Yes 39¢, No 63¢): Down 5% alongside the rest of the Reds' bats.
- Samad Taylor (2+ Total Bases: Yes 38¢, No 63¢): Down 3%, priced as a long shot for extra bases.
- Austin Hays (2+ Total Bases: Yes 38¢, No 66¢): Down 10%, the steepest drop in this category for the Reds.
- Dane Myers (2+ Total Bases: Yes 36¢, No 75¢): Down 5%, priced as a single-heavy night.
- Luis Campusano (2+ Total Bases: Yes 35¢, No 70¢): Down 4%, tracking below the coin-flip line.
- Jake Cronenworth (2+ Total Bases: Yes 34¢, No 76¢): Down 5%, priced more for contact than power tonight.
- Juan Brito (2+ Total Bases: Yes 32¢, No 79¢): Up 2%, a small bright spot for the Reds' lower half.
- Matt McLain (2+ Total Bases: Yes 31¢, No 76¢): Down 9%, one of the board's larger movers.
- Edwin Arroyo (2+ Total Bases: Yes 29¢, No 80¢): Down 4%, the board's lowest total bases price for this game.
Strikeouts
Both starters' strikeout props are priced close to even money tonight.
- Brandon Williamson (4+ Strikeouts: Yes 47¢, No 55¢): Down 1%, a modest expectation for a pitcher making his first start back from the injured list.
- Casey Mize (5+ Strikeouts: Yes 52¢, No 52¢): Up 2%, priced as a true coin flip in his first turn through this Reds lineup.
Outs Recorded
Outs recorded reflects how deep the market expects each starter to go.
- Brandon Williamson (14+ Outs: Yes 61¢, No 51¢): Down a steep 36% on the day, the market clearly uncertain about his workload fresh off the IL.
- Casey Mize (16+ Outs: Yes 47¢, No 56¢): Down 3%, a modest workload expectation as he adjusts to a new club.
Earned Runs Allowed
Earned runs allowed rounds out the pitching props for this game.
- Brandon Williamson (3+ Earned Runs: Yes 52¢, No 54¢): Essentially a coin flip for his first outing back.
- Casey Mize (3+ Earned Runs: Yes 53¢, No 53¢): Also dead even, reflecting the uncertainty around a pitcher new to this roster.
Braves vs Nationals Predictions: Player Props and Best Bets
The Braves (82-57) lead the NL East and are looking to salvage a split of this two-game set after dropping Tuesday's game 9-5.
The Nationals (67-74) have won five of their last six games and send Brad Lord, who's worked mostly out of the bullpen and in an opener role this year, against Atlanta's Grant Holmes, who's allowed three earned runs or fewer in nine of his last ten outings.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Matt Olson (Editor's Pick)
Olson leads this game's home run board at 22¢, comfortably the top price on either side.
He's been Atlanta's steadiest power source all year, and Nationals Park has played as a fair power venue for lefty pull hitters.
Brad Lord has worked mostly as a reliever and opener this season rather than a true multi-inning starter, which means Olson could see him for a limited look before the Nationals turn to their bullpen.
We're buying Yes on Olson 1+ home runs tonight.
The board price is 22¢, and our $100 order filled at that same 22¢ average, working out to roughly 454.5 shares ($100 ÷ 22¢).
- If Olson hits a home run: the shares pay out $1 each, for a $434.22 payout and a $334.22 profit on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
Just under a 4.4x payout multiple, a real longshot swing on the best power bat in this ballpark tonight.
Best Outs Recorded Prop Today – Brad Lord Under 7+ Outs (Editor's Pick)
Lord is priced at 52¢ to record 7+ outs (a bit over two full innings), and we're taking the No side at 55¢ on this one.
He's worked almost entirely as a bullpen piece and opener this season, meaning his leash tends to be short regardless of how he looks early.
Facing a Braves lineup that's still atop the NL East and hitting for plenty of pop, we like the odds of an early hook here more than the market's current 52¢ price suggests.
We're buying No on Lord reaching 7+ outs recorded.
The board has No priced at 55¢, and our $100 order filled at that same 55¢ average, working out to roughly 181.8 shares ($100 ÷ 55¢).
- If Lord fails to reach 7+ outs: the shares pay out $1 each, for a $177.03 payout and a $77.03 profit on the $100 stake.
- If he reaches 7+ outs or more: the $100 stake is lost entirely.
A modest 1.8x payout multiple, reflecting how close to a coin flip this workload number really is for a pitcher who's rarely stretched out.
Braves (57%, Yes 57¢)
Atlanta is priced at 57¢ to win outright, up 1% on the day, as the Braves try to avoid a series loss to a losing Nationals club.
Nationals (43%, Yes 43¢)
Washington sits at 43¢, a live number for a team that's won five of six coming in.
Braves -1.5 Runs (46% Yes, 55% No)
Atlanta winning by two or more runs jumped 17% on the day to 46¢, one of the largest single-day moves on either board tonight.
Over 9.5 Runs (48% Yes, 53% No)
The total fell a sharp 48% on the day to 48¢, suggesting the market pulled back hard on scoring after Tuesday's 9-5 shootout.
First Five Innings Winner
The Braves are priced at 47¢ to lead after five, the Nationals at 39¢, and a tie sits at 15¢, all three down double digits on the day.
Home Runs
Home run props for this game, ranked by price:
- Matt Olson (1+ HR: Yes 22¢, No 79¢): Top of the board and our Editor's Pick above.
- Drake Baldwin (1+ HR: Yes 17¢, No 86¢): Down a steep 27%, one of the sharper pullbacks on this board.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (1+ HR: Yes 17¢, No 85¢): Also down 27%, tracking the same move as Baldwin.
- CJ Abrams (1+ HR: Yes 16¢, No 87¢): Down 22%, the market cooling on Nationals power tonight.
- Michael Harris II (1+ HR: Yes 16¢, No 91¢): Down 4%, a modest pullback after going deep in each of his last two games.
- Daylen Lile (1+ HR: Yes 14¢, No 87¢): Down 12%, priced as a longer shot for power tonight.
- Dylan Crews (1+ HR: Yes 13¢, No 91¢): Up 1%, one of the few Nationals bats trending up.
- Ozzie Albies (1+ HR: Yes 12¢, No 89¢): Down a steep 26%, the board pulling back hard on Atlanta's second baseman.
- Abimelec Ortiz (1+ HR: Yes 7¢, No 94¢): Down 8%, priced as a long shot for power.
- Keibert Ruiz (1+ HR: Yes 4¢, No 97¢): Down 6%, the board's lowest home run price for this game.
Hits
Hits props for this game, ranked by price:
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (1+ Hits: Yes 72¢, No 32¢): Down 12%, still comfortably the top single-hit price on the board.
- Daylen Lile (1+ Hits: Yes 69¢, No 32¢): Down 16%, still a heavy favorite to reach base.
- Matt Olson (1+ Hits: Yes 69¢, No 32¢): Down 14%, still favored comfortably to pick up a hit.
- CJ Abrams (1+ Hits: Yes 67¢, No 35¢): Down 17%, one of several Nationals bats cooling off.
- Ozzie Albies (1+ Hits: Yes 67¢, No 34¢): Also down 17%, matching Abrams' pullback.
- Dylan Crews (1+ Hits: Yes 63¢, No 39¢): Down 17%, still favored to reach base tonight.
- Keibert Ruiz (1+ Hits: Yes 62¢, No 40¢): Up 23%, the board's largest single-hit riser tonight.
- Drake Baldwin (2+ Hits: Yes 35¢, No 67¢): Down 2%, priced for a multi-hit game.
- Michael Harris II (2+ Hits: Yes 33¢, No 68¢): Down 4%, also priced on the multi-hit line.
Total Bases
Total bases props for this game, ranked by price:
- Drake Baldwin (2+ Total Bases: Yes 49¢, No 53¢): Down 1%, the top total bases price on the board.
- Matt Olson (2+ Total Bases: Yes 46¢, No 55¢): Down 2%, right behind Baldwin for extra-base pop.
- Michael Harris II (2+ Total Bases: Yes 46¢, No 55¢): Down 6%, still priced close to a coin flip.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (2+ Total Bases: Yes 44¢, No 57¢): Down 2%, tracking his hits-market pullback.
- Ozzie Albies (2+ Total Bases: Yes 44¢, No 60¢): Steady at the same price band as Acuña.
- CJ Abrams (2+ Total Bases: Yes 43¢, No 60¢): Right in line with the rest of the Nationals' lineup.
- Daylen Lile (2+ Total Bases: Yes 43¢, No 58¢): Up 1%, a small bright spot for Washington.
- Dylan Crews (2+ Total Bases: Yes 42¢, No 71¢): Down 2%, priced closer to a single-heavy night.
- Keibert Ruiz (2+ Total Bases: Yes 40¢, No 61¢): The board's lowest extra-base price for this game.
Strikeouts
Both starters carry near-identical strikeout prices tonight.
- Brad Lord (3+ Strikeouts: Yes 41¢, No 62¢): Down 3%, a modest number given his short-leash role.
- Grant Holmes (5+ Strikeouts: Yes 41¢, No 62¢): Also down 3%, matching Lord's price exactly.
Outs Recorded
Outs recorded highlights the gap in expected workload between these two arms.
- Grant Holmes (16+ Outs: Yes 46¢, No 57¢): Down 6%, a fair number for a starter averaging just under five innings a start.
- Brad Lord (7+ Outs: Yes 52¢, No 55¢): Down a steep 46% on the day, one of the largest single-day drops on either board tonight, and the number our Editor's Pick above is fading.
Earned Runs Allowed
Earned runs allowed closes out the pitching props for this game.
- Grant Holmes (3+ Earned Runs: Yes 47¢, No 61¢): Down 1%, in line with his 3.71 ERA on the year.
- Brad Lord (2+ Earned Runs: Yes 42¢, No 67¢): Down 3%, a modest damage expectation for a short outing.
Wednesday's slate runs well beyond these two games, and there are more matchups and props available on Polymarket for anyone looking to build out a full card tonight.
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Best MLB Player Props Today: Final Thoughts
Both boards moved plenty on the day, from the sharp home run pullbacks in Cincinnati to the double-digit swings on the Braves-Nationals spread and total.
Our Reds vs Padres predictions lean on Tatis Jr. and De La Cruz staying hot, while our Braves vs Nationals predictions bet on Olson's power and a short outing from Brad Lord.
For a broader look at how these markets work across sports, the prediction markets hub is a good starting point.
Anyone trading on the go should also check out the prediction market apps available for tracking live odds.
And for the latest offers across platforms, the promo codes page is worth bookmarking.
Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a trading bonus for new users who sign up and deposit.
What are the best Reds vs Padres predictions today?
Our top Reds vs Padres predictions center on Fernando Tatis Jr. going deep and Elly De La Cruz picking up 2+ total bases, both detailed as Editor's Picks above.
What are the best Braves vs Nationals predictions today?
For Braves vs Nationals, we like Matt Olson's home run price and the No side of Brad Lord's outs recorded prop, both broken down above.
What are the best MLB player props today?
The best MLB player props today span both games above, ranging from home run and hits props for the top bats to strikeout and workload props for both starting pitchers.
Who is favored in the Padres-Reds game?
San Diego is favored at 58¢ on the moneyline, with Cincinnati priced at 42¢.
Who is favored in the Braves-Nationals game?
Atlanta is favored at 57¢ on the moneyline, with Washington priced at 43¢.
How do Polymarket contracts work?
Each contract resolves at $1 per share if the outcome hits, or $0 if it doesn't, with the current price reflecting the market's implied probability.
When do these markets resolve?
Moneyline, spread, total, and player prop contracts for both games resolve based on the final official box score once each game concludes.
Are there more games available on Polymarket today?
Yes, Wednesday's full MLB slate includes several other matchups and player prop boards beyond the two games covered here.
