Boston and New York open a short two-city collision course Friday night with real playoff stakes attached, the Red Sox sitting at 73-60 and the Yankees a game and a half up on them at 75-58 in the AL East.
Patrick Sandoval takes the ball for Boston against Cam Schlittler, and Polymarket's live board has the Yankees favored at 58% with the Red Sox priced at 42% to pull off the road upset.
Action Network has three separate Editor's Picks lined up for tonight's Red Sox vs Yankees prediction market board, along with the current Polymarket promo code: ACTION, which allows new users to Deposit $10, Get a $20 Trading Bonus!
Best MLB Player Props Today
These are the three trades Action Network is putting real money behind tonight, spanning a home run prop, a pitcher prop, and a total bases prop.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Ben Rice (Editor's Pick)
We're buying Ben Rice at 17¢ to go deep on Friday night.
Sandoval has been stingy with earned runs this season, allowing two or fewer in six of his eight starts, but Yankee Stadium's short porch to right field is one of the friendliest power environments in the sport for a pull-heavy lefty bat like Rice.
Rice sits at the top of the home run board among Yankees hitters tonight, ahead of established names like Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger, which tells us the market already sees him as New York's best power look against this specific lefty matchup.
Boston's bullpen has also carried a heavy workload during the club's recent 41-14 surge, and tired middle relief innings are exactly where a mistake pitch to a hitter like Rice tends to leave the yard.
The ticket shown puts $100 to work on Rice's 1+ home run contract at a 17¢ average price, which works out to roughly 588 shares. Each share is worth $1 on a winning resolution, and Polymarket's calculator lists the total payout on this size order at $560.35 once order-book depth on a $100 buy is factored in.
- If Rice hits a home run: the shares settle at $1 each, turning the $100 stake into roughly $460 in profit.
- If Rice does not hit a home run: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
It's a longshot swing by design, a sub-20% price with a payout multiple north of 5x on the stake, and we're treating it as exactly that rather than a confident lean.
Best Earned Runs Allowed Pick Today – Cam Schlittler (Editor's Pick)
We're buying Yes on Cam Schlittler allowing 2 or more earned runs tonight, which runs against his career résumé against Boston.
Schlittler has been close to untouchable versus the Red Sox, posting a 0.68 ERA and 31 strikeouts across four career appearances against them.
But the last time these two teams actually saw him, on June 22, Boston finally broke through for a 6-3 win, and this Red Sox lineup is a different animal now than it was two months ago.
Boston ranks second in the American League in both batting average (.250) and on-base percentage (.324) since the club's 41-14 turnaround, and that kind of traffic on the bases is how a normally dominant start turns into a two-run night instead of a shutout.
The ticket here puts $100 on the 2+ earned runs allowed contract at a 55¢ average price, which comes out to roughly 182 shares. Polymarket's calculator shows a total payout of $177.03 on this order once execution costs on the size are worked in.
- If Schlittler allows 2 or more earned runs: the shares settle at $1 each, for a profit of roughly $77 on the $100 stake.
- If he allows fewer than 2: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
This is closer to a coin-flip price than the home run swing above, and the payout reflects that, a little under 2x the stake for a pick built on recent form catching up to a dominant matchup history.
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Best Total Bases Prop Today – Cody Bellinger (Editor's Pick)
We're buying Cody Bellinger for 2 or more total bases against Sandoval.
Sandoval limits earned runs well over a full season, but total bases is a broader net than runs allowed, a single extra-base hit anywhere in the game clears this line regardless of how the rest of the outing goes.
Bellinger sits right at the top of the total bases board alongside Paul Goldschmidt, both priced at 40%, and both are exactly the kind of everyday middle-of-the-order bats who tend to find one clean swing even in a pitcher's duel.
The ticket puts $100 on Bellinger's 2+ total bases contract at a 40¢ average price, which works out to roughly 250 shares. Polymarket's calculator lists the total payout at $241.32 on this order size.
- If Bellinger records 2 or more total bases: the shares settle at $1 each, for a profit of roughly $141 on the $100 stake.
- If he falls short: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
At close to even odds, this is the most conservative of the three picks tonight, a payout a little better than 2.4x the stake on a contract with a genuinely competitive coin-flip price.
Red Sox vs Yankees Odds: Polymarket Money Line Contracts
Polymarket's money line contracts resolve based on which team wins the game outright, with the current price reflecting the market's implied win probability for each side.
Yankee Stadium's crowd and the AL East standings both tilt slightly in New York's favor here, and the board reflects that with a real but not overwhelming gap between the two sides.
Yankees (58%, Yes 58¢)
New York is the better run-prevention team by season-long metrics, and with Schlittler on the mound, the roster edge and the home-field advantage both point toward the favorite's price holding up.
Red Sox (42%, Yes 42¢)
Boston arrives red-hot, riding a 41-14 stretch that turned a lost season into a genuine wild-card push, and the 42% price still leaves real value on the board given how the Red Sox offense has performed lately.
Red Sox vs Yankees Spread and Total Predictions
Yankees -1.5 Run Spread (40%, Yes 40¢)
Asking the Yankees to win by two or more runs is a tougher ask than the money line alone, and the 18-point drop from the moneyline price to this spread price shows the market expects a closer finish than a blowout.
Total: Over 6.5 Runs (58%, Yes 58¢)
Both lineups have real thump in the middle of the order, and the over sitting favored at 58% lines up with a Yankee Stadium park factor that has historically played up for offense.
First 5 Innings Winner (Yankees 55%, Red Sox 30%, Tie 17%)
Schlittler's early-inning track record against Boston gives the Yankees a real lead here even relative to their full-game price, while the tie contract at 17% reflects how often these two starters have kept games close through the first five.
Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Props: Top MLB Picks Today
Home run props are ranked below from most to least likely by Yes price, and this list is capped at the top 10 names on the board.
- Ben Rice (1+ home runs: 17%): Our Editor's Pick above, and the top-priced power look on either roster tonight against Sandoval.
- Wilyer Abreu (1+ home runs: 16%): Abreu has been a steady middle-order threat for Boston and gets a similarly hittable platoon matchup.
- Paul Goldschmidt (1+ home runs: 15%): Goldschmidt's veteran power still shows up against left-handed starters like Sandoval.
- Trent Grisham (1+ home runs: 15%): Grisham has quietly been one of New York's more consistent power sources against southpaws this season.
- Cody Bellinger (1+ home runs: 14%): Bellinger's home run price sits just behind his total bases price in our Editor's Pick above, both reflecting real pop against this matchup.
- Willson Contreras (1+ home runs: 14%): Contreras brings switch-hitting power that keeps him in play from either side of the plate.
- Amed Rosario (1+ home runs: 12%): Rosario isn't a traditional power bat, but he's found extra thump lately in Boston's lineup.
- George Lombard Jr. (1+ home runs: 10%): The rookie's price reflects developing power rather than an established track record.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (1+ home runs: 8%): Rafaela's game leans more on contact and speed than raw power, hence the lower price.
- Nick Sogard (1+ home runs: 8%): Sogard rounds out the top 10 as a lower-power complementary bat in Boston's order.
Red Sox vs Yankees Hits and Total Bases Props
Some contracts on this section of the board only have one side actively priced, so only the traded side is shown below.
Hits Props
- Paul Goldschmidt (1+ hits: 68%): The highest-priced hit prop on the board, reflecting Goldschmidt's contact rate against left-handed pitching.
- Cody Bellinger (1+ hits: 66%): Bellinger's all-around offensive profile keeps this price near the top of the board.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (1+ hits: 65%): Rafaela's contact-oriented approach makes him a strong bet to reach base at least once.
- Amed Rosario (1+ hits: 64%): Rosario's recent hot stretch shows up clearly in this price.
- George Lombard Jr. (1+ hits: 61%): A solid price for a young player still building his everyday track record.
- Ben Rice (1+ hits: 60%): Rice's price here sits well below his home run price, a reminder that power and contact are priced as separate questions on this board.
- Nick Sogard (1+ hits: 59%): Sogard projects as a contact-first complementary piece in Boston's order.
- Willson Contreras (1+ hits: 59%): Contreras' switch-hitting profile keeps this price competitive from either side.
- Caleb Durbin (1+ hits: 58%): Durbin rounds out Boston's lineup with a respectable everyday contact price.
- Trent Grisham (1+ hits: 58%): Grisham's price here trails his power-focused props, another split between contact and pop.
- Wilyer Abreu (1+ hits: 58%): Abreu closes out the hits board tied with Grisham at 58%.
Total Bases Props
- Paul Goldschmidt (2+ total bases: 40%): The co-favorite for extra-base production tonight against Sandoval.
- Cody Bellinger (2+ total bases: 40%): Matches Goldschmidt at the top of this board, consistent with our Editor's Pick above.
- Amed Rosario (2+ total bases: 38%): Rosario's hot stretch extends to extra-base production as well as raw hits.
- Trent Grisham (2+ total bases: 38%): A strong price given Grisham's recent power surge against left-handed pitching.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (2+ total bases: 37%): Rafaela's contact skills translate into a real shot at multiple bases.
- Ben Rice (2+ total bases: 36%): Rice's total bases price trails his home run price slightly, since this contract also credits doubles and triples.
- Wilyer Abreu (2+ total bases: 36%): Abreu ties Rice for this tier of the board.
- Willson Contreras (2+ total bases: 33%): A fair price for a switch-hitter capable of extra-base pop from either side.
- Caleb Durbin (2+ total bases: 30%): The lowest-priced everyday bat on this list, reflecting a more singles-oriented approach.
- George Lombard Jr. (4+ total bases: 15%): A much longer shot at this higher threshold, essentially requiring a multi-hit or home run night.
- Nick Sogard (4+ total bases: 13%): The longest price on this board at the 4+ threshold.
Red Sox vs Yankees Pitcher Strikeout and Outs Props
Both starters have multiple threshold options priced on the board, so each pitcher's contracts are listed across the available lines below.
Strikeout Props
- Cam Schlittler (5+ strikeouts: 80%, 6+: 70%, 7+: 54%): Schlittler's dominant career track record against Boston (0.68 ERA, 31 strikeouts in four appearances) keeps every one of his thresholds priced high.
- Patrick Sandoval (4+ strikeouts: 80%, 5+: 63%, 6+: 43%): Sandoval doesn't miss as many bats as Schlittler does, and the price drops off more quickly as the threshold climbs.
Outs Recorded Props
- Cam Schlittler (18+ outs recorded: 57%): A price consistent with Schlittler working deep into the game against a Red Sox lineup he's historically handled well.
- Patrick Sandoval (17+ outs recorded: 50%): A near coin-flip price on whether Sandoval gets through six full innings against this Yankees order.
Earned Runs Allowed Props
- Cam Schlittler (2+ earned runs allowed: 55%): This is the contract behind our Editor's Pick above, built on the idea that Boston's surging offense finally starts cracking Schlittler's dominant history against them.
- Patrick Sandoval (3+ earned runs allowed: 48%): Sandoval has kept earned runs to two or fewer in six of his eight starts this season, and this price reflects real doubt about whether the Yankees' lineup depth changes that pattern tonight.
Red Sox vs Yankees Innings Props: YRFI, NRFI and Extra Innings
- Run in First Inning – YRFI (44%, NRFI 57%): Neither starter is known for a slow first inning, which keeps the no-run outcome as the slight favorite.
- First Inning Winner (Yankees 26%, Red Sox 19%, Tie 58%): The tie contract dominates this board, reflecting how often the first inning simply passes with no runs scored by either side.
- Extra Innings (11%): A relatively low price given how tight this matchup projects on paper, suggesting the market expects one team to pull ahead before the ninth.
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction Price Analysis: What's Moving the Market
The biggest swing on the board is the spread, where the Yankees drop from a 58% favorite on the money line to just 40% to win by 1.5 or more runs, an 18-point gap that tells you the market expects a tight finish rather than a blowout even with New York favored outright.
Schlittler's history against Boston is doing a lot of work across the pitcher props, keeping his strikeout, outs recorded, and earned runs allowed contracts all priced in his favor despite Boston's recent offensive surge.
That same surge is the counterweight running through this whole board. Boston's 41-14 stretch and its second-ranked AL batting average and OBP are exactly why the Red Sox vs Yankees prediction market hasn't fully priced this as a lopsided Yankees game, even with the better pitching staff and the better season-long record on New York's side.
For more context on how these contracts are priced across other games tonight, Action Network's full prediction markets hub tracks the broader slate in real time.
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Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction: Final Thoughts
This is as balanced a Red Sox vs Yankees prediction market as you'll find all season, a hot Boston team with real offensive momentum against a Yankees roster with the better pitching staff and the home-field edge.
The best MLB player props today on this board lean toward the matchup-specific edges rather than pure name recognition, which is exactly why Rice, Schlittler, and Bellinger stood out as tonight's three Editor's Picks.
Whichever side of the moneyline you land on, the full rundown of markets on Action Network's promo codes page is worth a look before first pitch.
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction Market FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $20 trading bonus for new users who sign up.
Who is favored in tonight's Red Sox vs Yankees game?
The Yankees are favored on Polymarket's money line at 58%, with the Red Sox priced at 42%.
What are the current MLB picks today on this board?
Action Network's three MLB picks today for this matchup are Ben Rice to hit a home run, Cam Schlittler to allow 2 or more earned runs, and Cody Bellinger to record 2 or more total bases.
What is the most notable player prop on the board?
Ben Rice's home run prop stands out as the top-priced power look on either roster, sitting ahead of established sluggers like Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger.
How do Polymarket contracts work?
Each contract trades between 1¢ and 99¢ based on the market's implied probability of the outcome, and every winning share settles at exactly $1 while losing shares settle at $0.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code?
Sign up for a new Polymarket account, enter the promo code ACTION during registration, and the $20 trading bonus will be applied to your account.
When does tonight's market resolve?
Game-related contracts resolve shortly after the final out of Friday's game at Yankee Stadium, first pitch scheduled for 5:15 PM ET.
What's the Editor's Pick on the earned runs allowed prop?
Action Network is buying Cam Schlittler to allow 2 or more earned runs, betting that Boston's surging offense finally breaks through against a pitcher who has otherwise dominated the Red Sox all season.
