The Atlanta Braves have stunned the Los Angeles Dodgers with back-to-back walk-off wins to open this series, and Thursday night's finale at Truist Park pits two of the National League's best arms against each other.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12-7, 2.61 ERA) takes the ball for the Dodgers, while Chris Sale (12-9, 2.20 ERA) looks to complete the sweep for Atlanta.
Polymarket's Dodgers vs Braves prediction market has moved throughout the day across the money line, run total, and a long list of player props.
Below are the best MLB player props today, along with the current Polymarket promo code: ACTION, which allows new users to Deposit $10, Get a $20 Trading Bonus!
Best Strikeout Prop Today – Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Editor's Pick)
We're buying Yamamoto's strikeout prop tonight, and the board has him at 41% (41¢) to reach seven or more against Atlanta.
Yamamoto sits third in the National League in ERA and leads all of MLB in innings per start this season, a sign the Dodgers trust him to work deep into games rather than hand things to the bullpen early.
He's also faced this exact Atlanta lineup before and thrived, throwing 10 scoreless innings across two career starts against the Braves.
With Atlanta chasing a series sweep and playing loose at home, we like a motivated Yamamoto working through the order a third time and picking up strikeouts late.
On the ticket, we're buying Yes at an average price of 41¢ with a $100 stake, which comes out to roughly 244 shares purchased. Polymarket lists the potential return on this ticket at $235.56.
- If Yamamoto reaches seven strikeouts, the position settles at $1 per share for that $235.56 return, a profit of roughly $135.56 on the $100 stake.
- If he falls short, the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's a payout north of 2.3x on a prop that's currently priced under a coin flip, a reasonable risk for a pitcher who's shown he can miss bats deep into Atlanta's lineup.
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Best Hits Prop Today – Freddie Freeman (Editor's Pick)
Our second trade tonight is Freddie Freeman's 1+ hits prop, priced at 62% (62¢) on the board.
Freeman is one of the toughest outs in baseball to shut down completely, and Sale's fastball velocity has ticked down slightly since the All-Star break even as his overall numbers have held up.
A contact hitter of Freeman's caliber getting at least one hit off a start-of-series-weary Braves bullpen feels like good value at this price.
Here we're buying Yes at an average price of 62¢ with a $100 stake, good for roughly 161 shares, and Polymarket shows a $157.69 potential return on the ticket.
- If Freeman gets a hit, the shares settle at $1 apiece for that $157.69 return, a profit of about $57.69 on the $100 stake.
- If he's held hitless, the $100 stake is gone entirely.
It's a modest but steady risk/reward profile, roughly 1.58x on a side we already like heading in at nearly two-to-one odds.
Dodgers vs Braves Prediction: Polymarket Money Line Contracts
Money line contracts resolve based simply on which team wins the game outright, with no run-differential requirement.
Both sides are priced close together tonight given the strength of the pitching matchup, which tends to compress win probability toward a coin flip.
Los Angeles Dodgers (47%, Yes 47¢)
The Dodgers have slipped 5 points on the day, likely a reaction to dropping the first two games of this series in walk-off fashion, even with Yamamoto on the mound tonight.
Atlanta Braves (54%, Yes 54¢)
Atlanta has climbed 5 points, and with a two-games-to-none series lead and a red-hot Chris Sale on the bump, the market is siding with the home team to finish the sweep.
Dodgers vs Braves Spread and Total Predictions
The spread market asks whether Atlanta wins by more than 1.5 runs, while the total sets the line at 6.5 combined runs.
Braves -1.5 (34%, Yes 34¢)
This side has cooled 2 points, a reasonable move given how tight both starters have pitched all season, which points toward a closer finish than a multi-run margin.
Over 6.5 Runs (49%, Yes 49¢)
The total has dropped a sharp 11 points today, reflecting just how live Yamamoto and Sale have looked, with both pitchers sitting inside the National League's top four in ERA.
Best MLB Player Props Today: Top Home Run Picks
Home run props are ranked below from most to least likely based on the Yes price on the board.
- Shohei Ohtani (1+ HR: 17%): Ohtani leads the Dodgers with 30 home runs and gets the platform advantage against the left-handed Sale.
- Matt Olson (1+ HR: 16%): Olson's power has carried Atlanta's lineup all year, and he's already done damage against Yamamoto in this series.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (1+ HR: 14%): Acuña remains a threat to run into one against any pitcher, even a sharp Yamamoto.
- Michael Harris II (1+ HR: 13%): Harris has been Atlanta's most consistent bat in this series and is priced as a real threat here.
- Teoscar Hernández (1+ HR: 13%): Hernández provides thump in the middle of the Dodgers order against a Sale fastball that's lost a tick of velocity of late.
- Drake Baldwin (1+ HR: 12%): Baldwin has quietly been productive in Atlanta's lineup and offers some upside at this price.
- Tommy Edman (1+ HR: 11%): Edman isn't a power-first bat, but he's shown he can catch one when the Dodgers need a spark.
- Mookie Betts (1+ HR: 11%): Betts remains capable of a big swing at any point in the lineup, even in a pitcher's duel.
- Ozzie Albies (1+ HR: 10%): Albies rounds out the board as a longer shot, priced appropriately given his more contact-oriented profile.
Best MLB Hits Props Today
Hits props are naturally priced higher than home run props, and both lineups feature several contact-heavy bats near the top of the board.
- Michael Harris II (1+ Hits: 66%): Harris continues to be one of the toughest outs on either roster this series.
- Mookie Betts (1+ Hits: 65%): Betts' bat-to-ball skills give him one of the safer floors on the board.
- Mauricio Dubón (1+ Hits: 64%): Dubón has settled in nicely against right-handed pitching this season.
- Shohei Ohtani (1+ Hits: 64%): Ohtani gets the platform edge here as well, boosting his floor beyond just the power numbers.
- Drake Baldwin (1+ Hits: 63%): Baldwin has been a steady bat-to-ball threat for Atlanta all series.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (1+ Hits: 63%): Acuña's all-around game keeps his floor high even without the home run.
- Tommy Edman (1+ Hits: 63%): Edman's contact profile makes this a fairly priced everyday floor.
- Freddie Freeman (1+ Hits: 62%): Freeman is our Editor's Pick above, and the price here reflects one of the more reliable bats in the sport.
- Max Muncy (1+ Hits: 62%): Muncy rounds out the middle of the board at a fair price for a patient, contact-capable bat.
- Teoscar Hernández (1+ Hits: 62%): Hernández's price here lines up with his overall solid contact numbers this season.
- Matt Olson (1+ Hits: 58%): Olson is priced lower here than his power peers given a more all-or-nothing swing profile.
- Ozzie Albies (1+ Hits: 57%): Albies closes out the board as the lowest-priced hits option among the names covered.
Best MLB Total Bases Props Today
Total bases props reward extra-base hits, and pricing here drops off more sharply than in the plain hits market above.
- Shohei Ohtani (2+ Total Bases: 41%): Ohtani's combination of power and speed makes him the board's top total bases play.
- Michael Harris II (2+ Total Bases: 39%): Harris' gap-to-gap approach supports a strong total bases price.
- Mookie Betts (2+ Total Bases: 39%): Betts' doubles power keeps him near the top of this board as well.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (2+ Total Bases: 37%): Acuña's speed adds extra-base upside even on singles that turn into doubles.
- Teoscar Hernández (2+ Total Bases: 37%): Hernández's power profile carries over cleanly into this market.
- Tommy Edman (2+ Total Bases: 37%): Edman's price here is a touch generous given his doubles pop from the leadoff spot.
- Mauricio Dubón (2+ Total Bases: 35%): Dubón is priced as a middle-of-the-pack option for extra bases tonight.
- Matt Olson (2+ Total Bases: 35%): Olson's swing-and-miss tendencies show up here relative to his home run price.
- Freddie Freeman (2+ Total Bases: 33%): Freeman is priced more conservatively here than in the straight hits market above.
- Ozzie Albies (2+ Total Bases: 29%): Albies is the board's longest shot for multiple total bases tonight.
Yamamoto vs. Sale: Best MLB Strikeout and Pitcher Props Today
Both starters rank inside the National League's top four in ERA this season, and that quality shows up across every pitcher prop on the board tonight.
Strikeouts
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6+ Strikeouts: 57%): The lower threshold is priced as a near coin flip given Yamamoto's strong but not overwhelming strikeout rate this year.
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7+ Strikeouts: 41%): This is our Editor's Pick above, priced at 41% after Yamamoto's history of racking up strikeouts against this Atlanta lineup.
- Chris Sale (7+ Strikeouts: 58%): Sale has 49 strikeouts across six starts since the All-Star break, supporting this price.
- Chris Sale (8+ Strikeouts: 45%): The higher threshold still sits close to a coin flip given how often Sale has piled up strikeouts this season.
Outs Recorded
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (18+ Outs: 89%): Yamamoto leads all of MLB in innings per start, making this a heavily favored side.
- Chris Sale (18+ Outs: 85%): Sale has been reliably going deep into games all season, supporting a similarly high price.
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (19+ Outs: 40%): The extra out drops this price sharply, since it requires a full seven innings of work.
- Chris Sale (19+ Outs: 37%): Sale's price here reflects the same jump in difficulty at the seven-inning mark.
Earned Runs Allowed
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2+ Earned Runs Allowed: 60%): Yamamoto has allowed nine runs across his last six starts, a pace that supports this price.
- Chris Sale (2+ Earned Runs Allowed: 52%): Sale has also allowed nine runs in his last six outings, keeping this price close to Yamamoto's.
Hits Allowed
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (4+ Hits Allowed: 83%): Yamamoto's contact-limiting stuff still allows for a handful of hits over a deep outing.
- Chris Sale (4+ Hits Allowed: 76%): Sale's price here trails Yamamoto's slightly, reflecting his stronger recent bat-missing numbers.
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (5+ Hits Allowed: 60%): This threshold drops meaningfully, in line with Yamamoto's strong overall contact suppression.
- Chris Sale (5+ Hits Allowed: 54%): Sale's price here is close to Yamamoto's, another sign of how evenly matched these two arms are tonight.
Dodgers vs Braves First Inning and Extra Innings Markets
With two aces on the mound, several of tonight's most interesting markets are about how the game starts and whether it needs extra innings to finish.
Run in First Inning (39%, Yes 39¢)
This price has dropped 4 points today, and it's the basis for our final Editor's Pick below.
First Inning Winner
- Dodgers (23%): The Dodgers' first-inning price has fallen 9 points, a sign the market doesn't expect early fireworks against Sale.
- Tie (64%): A scoreless or split first inning is the heavy favorite here, fitting for a night with two elite starters.
- Braves (26%): Atlanta's price has also dropped 10 points, mirroring the drop on the Dodgers' side.
Extra Innings (10%, Yes 10¢)
The market gives this game only a 10% chance of needing extra innings, essentially unchanged on the day.
Best First-Inning Run Prop Today – No (Editor's Pick)
Our final trade of the night is on the "No" side of a run scoring in the first inning, priced at 62% (62¢) on the board.
Yamamoto and Sale are both averaging deep, efficient outings, and neither pitcher has had trouble navigating a lineup the first time through this season.
Given how sharp both arms have looked recently, and how little either offense has done early in the first two games of this series, a clean first inning feels like the more likely outcome.
On the ticket, we're buying No at an average price of 62¢ with a $100 stake, roughly 161 shares, and Polymarket shows a $157.69 potential return.
- If neither team scores in the first, the position settles at $1 per share for that $157.69 return, a profit of about $57.69 on the $100 stake.
- If either team scores first inning, the $100 stake is lost entirely.
It's a modest 1.58x payout on what's already the market's favored side, a reasonably low-variance way to close out tonight's card.
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Dodgers vs Braves Prediction Markets: What's Moving the Market
The biggest swing on the board today is the game total, which dropped 11 points as bettors leaned further into a pitcher's duel between two of the National League's best arms.
The Dodgers' money line has also slipped since the market opened, a natural reaction to dropping the first two games of this series in dramatic, late-inning fashion.
First-inning markets moved the most of any category, with both teams' win probabilities for the opening frame falling as the "tie" (scoreless or split) price climbed.
For readers newer to this format, Action Network's prediction market apps guide is a good primer on how these contracts trade in real time.
Overall, tonight's board reflects a market that respects both starters more than it respects either offense, which is exactly what you'd expect with Yamamoto and Sale both sitting inside the league's top four in ERA.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and do not guarantee future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
Use Polymarket Promo Code 'ACTION' to Trade MLB Picks Today
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Best MLB Picks Today: Final Thoughts
Tonight's Dodgers vs Braves prediction market is shaped almost entirely by the pitching matchup, with Yamamoto and Sale pushing bettors toward the under and toward a close, low-scoring money line.
The player prop board still offers plenty of value away from the marquee names, especially in the hits and total bases markets where several everyday bats are priced fairly close together.
Whichever side of tonight's best MLB picks today you land on, Action Network's prediction markets hub and its promo code directory are worth bookmarking for the rest of the season.
Dodgers vs Braves Prediction Market FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $20 trading bonus for new users.
Who is favored in tonight's Dodgers vs Braves prediction market?
The Braves are favored at 54% on the money line, with the Dodgers priced at 47% as they try to avoid a series sweep.
What is the top home run prop tonight?
Shohei Ohtani leads the home run props board at 17%, followed by Matt Olson at 16% and Ronald Acuña Jr. at 14%.
How do Polymarket contracts work?
Each contract resolves at $1 per share if it settles in your favor, or $0 if it doesn't, so the price you pay reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome.
What is Action Network's Editor's Pick for this game?
Action Network's editor is backing Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 7+ strikeouts prop, Freddie Freeman's 1+ hits prop, and the "No" side of a run scoring in the first inning.
When does the Dodgers vs Braves market resolve?
Money line, spread, and total contracts resolve once the final score is official, while player and inning-specific props resolve based on the individual box score once the game ends.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code?
New users can enter the promo code ACTION during sign-up to unlock a $20 trading bonus before placing their first trade.
Is there a chance this game goes to extra innings?
The market prices extra innings at just 10%, reflecting how rarely a game between two starters this efficient needs a tenth inning.
