There are nine games on Thursday's MLB slate, which makes it one of the busiest boards of the week for home run bets today.
Below are the best MLB home run predictions we could build from the current Polymarket board, with the top five probabilities in every matchup and one Editor's Pick per game straight from a live trade ticket.
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Today's Best Prediction Markets for MLB Home Run Props
Polymarket prices a "1+ home run" contract for practically every hitter in today's nine lineups, with the displayed percentage acting as the market's live implied probability.
That kind of granularity is what makes Polymarket one of the best prediction markets for isolating a single outcome, like one specific player going deep, without needing to bet the whole game.
Pulling the top five probabilities from all nine games is how we get to the best MLB home run predictions for a full slate, rather than leaning on just one matchup.
Some of the contracts below only have one side actively priced, since thinner names on this board haven't drawn enough volume to price a "No" line yet.
Giants vs Pirates
San Francisco is well out of the race at 58-82, but Pittsburgh's offense has plenty to work with at PNC Park this afternoon.
Blade Tidwell starts for the Giants opposite an opener-heavy Pirates staff that leans on Lake Bachar before turning things over to the bullpen.
Giants vs Pirates Top Home Run Props
Brandon Lowe has been one of the best stories of Pittsburgh's season since arriving from Tampa Bay in the offseason trade that also sent Jake Mangum to the Pirates, and the board reflects it.
- Brandon Lowe (1+ Home Runs: Yes 21%, No 81%): Lowe leads the Pirates in home runs since the trade and tops this board at 21%, the highest single price of any pitcher-facing hitter in this game.
- Oneil Cruz (1+ Home Runs: Yes 20%, No 81%): Cruz's raw power keeps him a threat every night, and he sits just behind Lowe as Pittsburgh's other top source of pop.
- Rafael Devers (1+ Home Runs: Yes 20%, No 82%): Devers leads San Francisco in home runs this season and gives the Giants their best individual shot at flipping the Yes side.
- Bryce Eldridge (1+ Home Runs: Yes 16%, No 87%): The rookie first baseman has shown real power in a part-time role and checks in fourth on this board.
- Bryan Reynolds (1+ Home Runs: Yes 15%, No 87%): Reynolds rounds out the top five and gives Pittsburgh a second everyday bat worth watching in the middle of the order.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Oneil Cruz (Editor's Pick)
We're taking a position on Oneil Cruz going deep this afternoon.
Cruz is priced at 20% on the board, right behind Lowe for the highest home run probability in this game.
His exit velocities are still some of the hardest in baseball, and PNC Park's short porch in right-center has never hurt a pull-heavy hitter with this kind of bat speed.
We're buying the Yes side at $100.
The average price on this order came in a touch above the 20% board price, near 21 cents, since a $100 buy is large enough to move a thin market slightly.
That works out to about 477 shares purchased (Amount ÷ Avg Price), which lines up with the ticket's listed payout of $477.10.
- If Cruz hits a home run: the position pays out $477.10, a profit of roughly $377.10 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's close to a 4.8x payout multiple on the stake, a real reward if Cruz connects, with the understanding that he's still priced as the less likely outcome.
Blue Jays vs Guardians
Toronto and Cleveland split the first two games of this series, which sets up a rubber match with real AL wild-card stakes.
The Guardians hold the third and final wild-card spot, just 1.5 games ahead of a group that includes the Blue Jays, and neither team can afford to slip in September.
Jose Soriano starts for Toronto against Cleveland's Tanner Bibee in what both sides are treating as close to an elimination game already.
Blue Jays vs Guardians Top Home Run Props
Jesus Sanchez's contract is one where only the Yes side is actively priced, since thinner names on this board haven't drawn a "No" line yet.
- Kazuma Okamoto (1+ Home Runs: Yes 16%, No 17%): Okamoto's power has translated well since signing with Toronto, and he tops this board at 16%.
- Jesus Sanchez (1+ Home Runs: Yes 14%): Sanchez sits second on this board with only the Yes side priced right now.
- George Springer (1+ Home Runs: Yes 13%, No 14%): Springer's power has aged well, and he remains one of Toronto's most consistent home run threats near the top of the order.
- Jo Adell (1+ Home Runs: Yes 13%, No 90%): Adell's raw power continues to show up in the box score even in a smaller offensive role.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1+ Home Runs: Yes 13%, No 89%): Guerrero rounds out this list at 13%, and it's the number behind our Editor's Pick for this game.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Editor's Pick)
We're taking a position on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. going deep in this wild-card rubber match.
Guerrero is priced at 13% on the board.
He's been Toronto's most feared bat in the middle of the lineup all season, and a get-away-day matchup against a Cleveland bullpen that's already been taxed this series plays right into a mistake pitch finding the barrel.
We're buying the Yes side at $100.
The average price came in slightly above the board number, near 14 cents on this size order, good for about 731 shares (Amount ÷ Avg Price), matching the ticket's $731.07 payout figure.
- If Guerrero hits a home run: the position pays out $731.07, a profit of roughly $631.07 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's more than a 7x payout multiple on the stake, one of the bigger risk/reward gaps on today's slate.
White Sox vs Astros
Chicago and Houston are both leading their respective divisions, and this series has taken on a postseason-preview feel.
The White Sox sit at 73-66 atop the AL Central, while the Astros are 71-69 and clinging to first in the AL West after winning three of their last four.
Luis Castillo gets the ball for Chicago against Houston's Hunter Brown in the middle game of this four-game set.
White Sox vs Astros Top Home Run Props
Taylor Trammell's contract is another one where only the Yes side is actively priced, so no No line is shown for that entry below.
- Yordan Alvarez (1+ Home Runs: Yes 27%, No 74%): Alvarez is the single highest-priced home run contract on the entire nine-game slate.
- Taylor Trammell (1+ Home Runs: Yes 21%): Trammell checks in second on this board with only the Yes side priced.
- Munetaka Murakami (1+ Home Runs: Yes 18%, No 83%): Murakami's power has been a steady presence in this lineup, and his 18% price is the number behind our Editor's Pick for this game.
- Daulton Varsho (1+ Home Runs: Yes 16%, No 87%): Varsho gives this lineup a switch-hitting power threat capable of running into one from either side of the plate.
- Miguel Vargas (1+ Home Runs: Yes 16%, No 86%): Vargas rounds out the top five, tied with Varsho at 16%.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Munetaka Murakami (Editor's Pick)
We're taking a position on Munetaka Murakami going deep tonight.
Murakami is priced at 18% on the board, the third-highest home run probability in this matchup.
He's shown legitimate over-the-fence power in a hitter-friendly ballpark, and neither Chicago's rotation nor its bullpen has been especially stingy with the long ball this season.
We're buying the Yes side at $100.
The average price landed near 19 cents on this order, slightly above the 18% board price, good for about 529 shares (Amount ÷ Avg Price), which lines up with the $529.50 payout shown on the ticket.
- If Murakami hits a home run: the position pays out $529.50, a profit of roughly $429.50 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's a little over a 5x payout multiple on the stake, a reasonable risk/reward for a hitter with real raw power in this spot.
Red Sox vs Orioles
Boston heads to Camden Yards for a night game with plenty of American League East seeding implications still in play.
Jake Bennett gets the start for the Red Sox against Baltimore's Brandon Young.
Red Sox vs Orioles Top Home Run Props
- Pete Alonso (1+ Home Runs: Yes 24%, No 77%): Alonso tops this board comfortably and is the number behind our Editor's Pick for this game.
- Coby Mayo (1+ Home Runs: Yes 22%, No 90%): Mayo's power has flashed in stretches this season, and he checks in tied for second on this board.
- Wilyer Abreu (1+ Home Runs: Yes 22%, No 81%): Abreu is tied with Mayo at 22% and gives Boston another everyday source of pop in this lineup.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1+ Home Runs: Yes 19%, No 85%): Encarnacion-Strand rounds out the top four with real raw power in a middle-of-the-order role.
- Roman Anthony (1+ Home Runs: Yes 16%, No 86%): Anthony's power is still developing at the big league level, but he's shown enough to crack this board's top five.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Pete Alonso (Editor's Pick)
We're taking a position on Pete Alonso going deep tonight.
Alonso is priced at 24% on the board, the highest home run probability in this matchup by a comfortable margin.
He's one of the more consistent home run hitters in the league year over year, and Camden Yards has played as a hitter-friendly park for right-handed power in recent seasons.
We're buying the Yes side at $100.
The average price came in near 25 cents on this order, slightly above the 24% board price, good for about 398 shares (Amount ÷ Avg Price), matching the ticket's $398.50 payout.
- If Alonso hits a home run: the position pays out $398.50, a profit of roughly $298.50 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's roughly a 4x payout multiple on the stake, the shortest odds of any Editor's Pick on today's slate.
Brewers vs Cubs
Milwaukee has run away with the NL Central at 87-53, and a win tonight would close out a four-game sweep of a Cubs team still fighting for a wild-card spot at 78-62.
Logan Henderson takes the mound for the Brewers against Chicago's Kevin Gausman, who's struggled with consistency since arriving from Toronto at the trade deadline.
That kind of pitching mismatch is exactly why this slate's best prediction markets tend to cluster around Milwaukee's lineup tonight.
Brewers vs Cubs Top Home Run Props
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (1+ Home Runs: Yes 26%, No 77%): Crow-Armstrong is the second-highest-priced home run contract on the entire nine-game slate, just behind Yordan Alvarez's 27%, and it's the number behind our Editor's Pick below.
- Jackson Chourio (1+ Home Runs: Yes 19%, No 82%): Chourio has been one of Milwaukee's most dangerous hitters all season and sits tied for second on this board.
- Jake Bauers (1+ Home Runs: Yes 19%, No 84%): Bauers is tied with Chourio at 19% and gives the Brewers another everyday power threat.
- Ian Happ (1+ Home Runs: Yes 18%, No 84%): Happ rounds out the top four for Chicago at 18%.
- Michael Busch (1+ Home Runs: Yes 18%, No 85%): Busch ties Happ at 18% and closes out this board's top five.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Pete Crow-Armstrong (Editor's Pick)
We're taking a position on Pete Crow-Armstrong going deep against Milwaukee tonight.
Crow-Armstrong is priced at 26% on the board, second only to Yordan Alvarez's 27% across the entire nine-game slate.
He's turned into one of the more explosive power-speed threats in the league this season, and Logan Henderson, sharp as he's been, has never faced the Cubs in his career, which adds a layer of uncertainty to an otherwise dominant first look.
We're buying the Yes side at $100.
The average price landed near 27 cents on this order, slightly above the 26% board price, good for about 368 shares (Amount ÷ Avg Price), which matches the ticket's $368.26 payout figure.
- If Crow-Armstrong hits a home run: the position pays out $368.26, a profit of roughly $268.26 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's a little under a 3.7x payout multiple on the stake, the shortest price of any pick on the board, reflecting how heavily favored this outcome is relative to the rest of the field.
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Marlins vs Royals
Miami is looking to complete a series sweep of Kansas City behind ace Sandy Alcantara, who's been outstanding in August after an uneven stretch.
Michael Wacha takes the ball for the Royals, who've dropped their last two games to the Marlins despite Wacha personally riding strong recent form.
Marlins vs Royals Top Home Run Props
- Kyle Stowers (1+ Home Runs: Yes 24%, No 77%): Stowers tops this board at 24% and has quietly been one of Miami's most productive power bats all year.
- Heriberto Hernandez (1+ Home Runs: Yes 22%, No 80%): Hernandez sits second on this board at 22%.
- Carter Jensen (1+ Home Runs: Yes 20%, No 82%): Jensen is tied for third and has provided real thump for Kansas City since his call-up.
- Jac Caglianone (1+ Home Runs: Yes 20%, No 82%): Caglianone ties Jensen at 20%, and it's the price behind our Editor's Pick for this game.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (1+ Home Runs: Yes 17%, No 86%): Witt rounds out the top five and remains Kansas City's most complete offensive weapon.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Jac Caglianone (Editor's Pick)
We're taking a position on Jac Caglianone going deep tonight.
Caglianone is priced at 20% on the board, tied for third-highest in this matchup.
He's shown big raw power in his first full look at the majors, and Sandy Alcantara, sharp as he's been in August, has a modest strikeout rate that leaves more balls in play than his overall numbers suggest.
We're buying the Yes side at $100.
The average price landed near 21 cents on this order, slightly above the 20% board price, good for about 477 shares (Amount ÷ Avg Price), which matches the ticket's $477.10 payout.
- If Caglianone hits a home run: the position pays out $477.10, a profit of roughly $377.10 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's close to a 4.8x payout multiple on the stake, right in line with the other favorites on today's board.
Rays vs Rangers
Tampa Bay brings the best record in the American League into Arlington to open a four-game series against a Texas team fighting to stay in the AL West race.
Shane McClanahan starts for the Rays opposite Cal Quantrill, who's been the Rangers' most consistent arm since midseason.
Rays vs Rangers Top Home Run Props
- Junior Caminero (1+ Home Runs: Yes 22%, No 79%): Caminero tops this board at 22% and is the number behind our Editor's Pick for this game.
- Corey Seager (1+ Home Runs: Yes 19%, No 83%): Seager sits second on this board and remains Texas's most dangerous left-handed bat.
- Jake Burger (1+ Home Runs: Yes 17%, No 85%): Burger checks in third with real pull-side power.
- Jonathan Aranda (1+ Home Runs: Yes 15%, No 87%): Aranda rounds out Tampa Bay's representation in this top five.
- Brandon Nimmo (1+ Home Runs: Yes 14%, No 88%): Nimmo closes out this board's top five, tied at 14% with Wyatt Langford.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Junior Caminero (Editor's Pick)
We're taking a position on Junior Caminero going deep tonight.
Caminero is priced at 22% on the board, the highest home run probability in this matchup.
He's one of the hardest-hitting young power bats in the league, and Cal Quantrill, effective as he's been lately, has a modest strikeout rate that tends to put the ball in play against exactly this kind of bat speed.
We're buying the Yes side at $100.
The average price landed near 23 cents on this order, slightly above the 22% board price, good for about 434 shares (Amount ÷ Avg Price), which matches the ticket's $434.22 payout.
- If Caminero hits a home run: the position pays out $434.22, a profit of roughly $334.22 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's a little over a 4.3x payout multiple on the stake, a reasonable price for the top home run probability in this game.
Athletics vs Mariners
Seattle opens a weekend series at home against an Athletics team that's lost five of its last six and is well out of the playoff picture at 54-86.
Jack Perkins starts for the Athletics against Mariners rookie left-hander Kade Anderson, who's still searching for his first big league win.
Athletics vs Mariners Top Home Run Props
- Cal Raleigh (1+ Home Runs: Yes 22%, No 80%): Raleigh tops this board comfortably and remains one of the most feared power bats at his position in baseball.
- Dominic Canzone (1+ Home Runs: Yes 17%, No 86%): Canzone sits second on this board at 17%.
- Julio Rodriguez (1+ Home Runs: Yes 15%, No 86%): Rodriguez is tied for third and gives Seattle another everyday source of power in the middle of the order.
- Randy Arozarena (1+ Home Runs: Yes 15%, No 87%): Arozarena ties Rodriguez at 15%, and it's the price behind our Editor's Pick for this game.
- Zack Gelof (1+ Home Runs: Yes 13%, No 90%): Gelof rounds out the top five for Oakland's traveling lineup.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Randy Arozarena (Editor's Pick)
We're taking a position on Randy Arozarena going deep tonight.
Arozarena is priced at 15% on the board, tied for the third-highest home run probability in this matchup.
He's got a track record of hot power stretches in September, and Jack Perkins has allowed a home run rate this season that ranks among the highest of any qualified starter.
We're buying the Yes side at $100.
The average price landed near 16 cents on this order, slightly above the 15% board price, good for about 634 shares (Amount ÷ Avg Price), which matches the ticket's $634.33 payout.
- If Arozarena hits a home run: the position pays out $634.33, a profit of roughly $534.33 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's more than a 6.3x payout multiple on the stake, one of the better risk/reward numbers on today's board given Perkins's home run rate allowed.
Cardinals vs Dodgers
St. Louis has already taken the first two games of this series and can complete a sweep of a Dodgers team still holding first in the NL West at 82-57.
Quinn Mathews starts for the Cardinals against Tarik Skubal, who's been dominant since arriving in Los Angeles and gives the Dodgers a real chance to avoid the broom.
Cardinals vs Dodgers Top Home Run Props
- Shohei Ohtani (1+ Home Runs: Yes 22%, No 79%): Ohtani tops this board at 22% and is the number behind our Editor's Pick for this game.
- Teoscar Hernandez (1+ Home Runs: Yes 17%, No 86%): Hernandez sits second on this board for Los Angeles.
- Tommy Edman (1+ Home Runs: Yes 16%, No 91%): Edman checks in third and gives the Cardinals a familiar face in this series against his former club.
- Jordan Walker (1+ Home Runs: Yes 15%, No 86%): Walker rounds out St. Louis's power threats in the top five.
- Mookie Betts (1+ Home Runs: Yes 14%, No 87%): Betts closes out this board's top five for the Dodgers at 14%.
Best Home Run Prop Today – Shohei Ohtani (Editor's Pick)
We're taking a position on Shohei Ohtani going deep in this series finale.
Ohtani is priced at 22% on the board, the highest home run probability in this matchup.
He's facing a Cardinals rookie in Quinn Mathews who's making just his fifth career start and carries a 5.03 ERA this season, exactly the kind of matchup Ohtani has feasted on all year.
We're buying the Yes side at $100.
The average price landed near 23 cents on this order, slightly above the 22% board price, good for about 434 shares (Amount ÷ Avg Price), which matches the ticket's $434.22 payout.
- If Ohtani hits a home run: the position pays out $434.22, a profit of roughly $334.22 on the $100 stake.
- If he doesn't: the full $100 is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
That's a little over a 4.3x payout multiple on the stake, a fair price on one of the best individual home run matchups of tonight's entire slate.
Today's slate covers nine games of home run bets today, but Polymarket runs markets on plenty more than home runs, including strikeout props, total bases, and full-game lines for every matchup above.
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Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and do not guarantee future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
Today's Best MLB Home Run Predictions: Final Thoughts
Nine games, forty-five ranked contracts, and one Editor's Pick apiece make today one of the deepest boards yet for home run bets today.
Yordan Alvarez's 27% is the single highest price tonight, with Pete Crow-Armstrong right behind at 26%, and the spread from there down to the mid-teens names shows how thin the gap really is between a near-lock and a live longshot on any given night.
That's the appeal of building the best MLB home run predictions around real board pricing instead of a single hot take, since the market is already doing the work of weighing form, matchup, and ballpark for you.
For a deeper look at how these contracts are priced across every sport, the Action Network prediction markets hub tracks the full board in real time, and the prediction market apps page breaks down where to trade them.
Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a deposit-match trading bonus for new users who sign up through Action Network.
Which player has the best home run odds tonight?
Yordan Alvarez carries the highest single price on tonight's board at 27% in the White Sox vs. Astros game, with Pete Crow-Armstrong close behind at 26% in the Brewers vs. Cubs game.
What Makes Polymarket One of the Best Prediction Markets for MLB Home Runs?
Because every contract settles on a single, verifiable outcome, like whether a specific player hits a home run, Polymarket ranks among the best prediction markets for isolating one player's performance rather than betting on the whole game.
How do Polymarket home run contracts work?
Each contract asks whether a named player will hit at least one home run in that game. The displayed percentage is the market's live implied probability, and buying "Yes" pays $1 per share if the player connects, while the stake is lost entirely if they don't.
Who is the Editor's Pick in the Brewers vs. Cubs game?
We're on Pete Crow-Armstrong at 26% in that matchup, and it's the one Editor's Pick on today's slate that gets the full trading bonus treatment above.
When do these home run markets resolve?
Each contract resolves at the final out of its respective game, based on the official box score for that matchup.
Are there more games available on Polymarket beyond these nine?
Yes, Polymarket runs contracts across every MLB game on the schedule, plus other sports and non-sports markets, so today's nine-game slate is only a slice of what's tradable on the platform.
What does the Polymarket promo code ACTION unlock?
New users who sign up with code ACTION and make a qualifying deposit can unlock a $50 trading bonus to use across any market on the platform, including the home run props covered above.
