Texans vs. Jaguars Odds & Betting Predictions - September 21, 2025

Projection: -192. For more, check out the Fantasy Life player projections.

JHA has been excellent at generating pressure, ranking tied for 5th with 11 pressures and tied for 2nd with 7 quick pressures, yet he’s still sitting on zero sacks. That just isn’t sustainable.. the 10 other players with 5+ quick pressures have averaged 1.8 sacks so far. This sets up as a good spot for some positive regression. He should see plenty of rookie Aireontae Ersery, who’s already allowed a team-high 6 pressures. On top of that, Stroud has turned 23% of his pressures into sacks the last two seasons, which is below average. I proj him closer to 1.1 sacks here and around a 62% chance he finally gets on the board. At 0.25, I’ll gladly take the over.

I know what we've seen through two weeks, but I still the wrong team is favored here. Jacksonville has certainly shown some signs. I like what I'm seeing from Jacksonville's new coaching staff, Liam Coen and Anthony Campanile. The Jaguars defense ranks top 12 by DVOA against both the run and the pass, and an offensive line widely panned as bottom-five entering the season instead has three players ranked top-five at their respective positions by PFF grade. That's all well and good, but it's important to remember the context here. Jacksonville has played Carolina and Cincinnati, which means those impressive defensive numbers have come against Bryce Young and Jake Browning, and those impressive offensive line metrics have come against two of the league's worst defensive lines. That could mean Jacksonville is in for a rude awakening against Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter as the Texans come to down. The Texans have absolutely dominated this division rivalry, winning 12 of the last 14 games, and that includes seven straight wins in Jacksonville. Houston is still the far superior defense and special teams on paper, and a couple weeks of information shouldn't be enough for us to completely flip on our priors there. We do need Houston to find some offense, but this is an awesome trends spot for the Texans. The Texans are a Kitchen Sink side, my No. 3 ranked one. Kitchen Sink teams are 75% ATS in the division. Houston was favored last week and Jacksonville was not, both good indicators, and the Jags are 1-1 and not scoring a ton. The Texans are also 0-2 ATS, and that's its own type of Kitchen Sink, with such teams 61% ATS as road dogs in Week 3 and 64% ATS coming off a one-score loss. There's a bunch of other trends suggesting Houston is the play, too — I've got 12 Texans trends to just one for Jacksonville. It's typically a good idea to fade Trevor Lawrence outdoors and as a favorite, and it's also been profitable fading 1-1 home favorites in Week 3 coming off a loss, hitting at 64% ATS. Give me Texans +2 (BetRivers). You can play the ML if you prefer, but remember, the Texans just covered +2 without winning a few days ago. This is also a great opportunity to bet on the Texans to win the AFC South at +300 (FanDuel). The Titans are also a Kitchen Sink team at home against the Colts this week, and if Tennessee and Houston both win before playing each other next week, the Texans could rebound and sit atop the division in no time at all.

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Stroud looks like Hellen Keller (she was kinda hot)

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I have the Texans favored by 1.7 in this game. Still skeptical of the Jags, who didn't cover in Week 2 despite having Joe Burrow miss most of the game.