I'm targeting four sides on Sunday of NFL Week 3, including picks for Colts vs Titans, Texans vs Jaguars, Bengals vs Vikings, and Rams vs Eagles.
So, let's get right into my expert NFL picks and analysis for the third NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Predictions, Week 3
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Colts vs Titans Best Bet
The Colts are in for some serious regression after scoring on 14-of-17 drives, or 82.4%.
The high last season was 51.6% (Lions), and the high over the past two decades is 52.7% (2007 Patriots).
A Jones-quarterhacked team scored at even half the current rate of the Colts over a full season, with the Giants topping out at 37.3% (15th) in 2022.
The biggest red flag is Jones targeting his first read at the second-highest rate in the NFL (64.8%), per FTN, which will be easier for defenses to scheme against each week there’s new tape. The Colts are also 26th in red-zone TD percentage.
The Colts are also running way hot in turnover luck, ending opposing drives with a takeaway at an unsustainable 25% clip (the Bills were No. 1 at 17.5% last season).
The Titans managed to cover in Week 1 in a nightmare spot for a rookie QB making his first start at Denver, and they led the Rams 16-13 late in the third quarter last Week.
Cam Ward has shown flashes and ranks tied for sixth in turnover-worthy play rate (1.3%, PFF), but protection has been an issue with a league-high 11 sacks.
That may not be an issue in this spot, with the Colts ranking 31st in pressure rate (11.8%) despite blitzing at the 13th-highest rate (26.5%), per Pro Football Reference.
We’ve seen this movie before:
- Week 3 'dogs off a loss facing a favorite that was a 'dog in Week 2 are 47-29-2 (62%) since 2006.
- Divisional 'dogs in Week 3 are 50-28-4 (64%) ATS since 2006.
- Winless 'dogs in Week 3 are 58-31-1 (65%) ATS since 2010.
Pick: Titans +5 (-110)
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Texans vs Jaguars Best Bet
As bullish as I am on the Jaguars this season, they’ve faced two of the worst defense from a year ago (Panthers, Bengals), and now have to face a desperate 0-2 Texans team that ranks No. 1 in drive scoring rate allowed on defense (26.2%) despite only forcing one turnover (5.3%).
The Jaguars have spent 90% of their defensive snaps against Bryce Young and Jake Browning. That means they’ve spent 90% of game time against backup-caliber quarterbacks with terrible defenses, yet still sit at 1-1.
The Texans are 0-2, but lost by a combined 6 points to the Rams and Bucs – two teams many expect to be in the NFC title hunt. They were driving for a go-ahead TD when Dare Ogunbowale lost a fumble on 1st-and-10 from the Rams 25 with 1:51 remaining in Week 1, took a 19-13 lead with 2:10 remaining last week before allowing a go-ahead score with 6 seconds remaining.
It’s hard to justify moving Jacksonville ahead of Houston in the power ratings just yet.
Per our Action Labs data, Week 3 'dogs 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS are 50-26-4 (64%) ATS for a 24% ROI since 2005. When a winless 'dog has faced a favorite with at least one loss in Week 3, the 'dog is 46-28-1 (62%) ATS for a 20% ROI.
Pick: Texans +1.5 (-110)
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Bengals vs Vikings Best Bet
The Vikings have allowed a higher pressure rate (40.0%) than the Bengals (39.0%). Center Ryan Kelly (concussion) is out. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw (ACL+MCL) is expected to make his season debut, but will “rotate on and off,” according to Ian Rapoport. Backup left tackle Justin Skule is out.
Kevin O’Connell rightfully gets a lot of credit for his work with quarterbacks, but Carson Wentz has been here less than a month, and the most recent returns with O’Connell passers have been trending down: His last four games go Darnold disaster > Exact repeat of Darnold disaster with higher stakes, different opponent > McCarthy three-quarter disaster/improbable comeback > McCarthy four-quarter disaster with offensive outputs of 9 > 9 > 27 (6 through third quarter) > 6.
Per our Action Labs data, Carson Wentz is 3-8 ATS as a starter since January 2022, failing to cover by 9.6 points per game.
Meanwhile, Jake Browning has been excellent against the blitz in his career, grading fourth of 43 qualifiers with a 85.1 PFF grade in 2023 and completing 7-of-9 passes for 125 yards and two touchdowns and no interceptions against the blitz last week.
He won against a Vikings backup (Nick Mullens) and Flores defense in 2023, passing for 324 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.
Browning has also done his best work with a week to prepare as a starter, and his worst work out of the bullpen.
- As backup: 61.7% CMP, 6.6 YPA, 6.3% INT
- As starter: 71.5% CMP, 8.2 YPA, 3.0% INT
The Vikings are -7.8 points per game ATS.
Per our Action Labs data,Week 3 'dogs by 7 or less facing a favorite with a negative average ATS differential are 69-45-3 (61%) ATS since 2003.
Pick: Bengals +3 (-110)
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Rams vs Eagles Best Bet
We knew the Eagles would suffer a decline to at least some degree after the mass exodus of talent on defense and losing yet another OC. This is a good sell-high spot, because the record says 2-0 but the numbers are way down.
- Saquon Barkley’s YPC is down from 5.8 to 3.7 and his rushing yardage is down from 125.3 to 74.0
- Jalen Hurts has seen drops in yards per pass attempt (8.0 to 5.8), yards per completion (11.7 to 7.4) and yards per carry (4.2 to 3.3).
- A.J. Brown is averaging 3.0 receptions for 17.0 yards, with dips in aDOT (12.1 to 7.4) and YAC (5.3 to 0.8).
- The defense has allowed 2.15 points per drive (15th) and a 41.2% scoring rate (20th) after allowing 1.65 (second) and 31.6% (first) last season, respectively.
I’m the first to caution that it’s only Week 3 and these numbers will regress, but it still leaves room for a pretty big delta of uncertainty based on how the Eagles are being priced in the market.
The Rams were the only team to stay within one score and cover against the Eagles the playoffs – nearly pulling off the outright upset – and they’ve improved with the addition of Davante Adams, which will help a lot in this matchup because the Eagles have a hole at outside corner against 3WR personnel when Cooper DeJean kicks inside.
Per our Action Labs data, road 'dogs +7.5 or less in Week 3 have pulled off the outright upset more than 50% of the time since 2019, going 30-28-1 (52%) SU for a 40% ROI.
Pick: Rams +3.5 (-110)
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