Dolphins vs. 49ers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 20, 2026

There is a value opportunity on Will Kacmarek's touchdowns prop. THE BLITZ is projecting 0.06 touchdowns for him with a 7% chance that he exceeds 0.5 touchdowns. If you can get the over at +2232 or better, there is some great value here. This play is good down to at least +1534. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Sieler is a really good interior lineman with multiple 10+ sack seasons, but this is another spot where I think the tackle number is just too high. Like I mentioned last week, Brock Purdy is one of the toughest QBs in the league to actually sack, which takes away one of Sieler’s cleaner paths to padding this stat. Miami also faced 37 rush attempts last week and Sieler still finished with only 3 total tackles. I have this number about a full tackle too high and give him roughly a 67% chance to stay under 3.5.

Fine with any under, even 40.5! (Read writeup) https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/player-props-for-nfl-week-2-aaron-rodgers-jeremiyah-love

@wheatonbrando https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-betting-playground-week-2/id1004530793?i=1000790459648

@The_Oddsmaker https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-touchdown-show-week-2/id1004530793?i=1000790412504

I won't even pretend to make a football case for the Dolphins. Miami looked abhorrent last week. This is strictly a numbers, trends, and spot play. The 49ers are returning from a full week in Australia, and we don't truly know how that body clock adjustment is going to affect them. Kyle Shanahan's teams notoriously play with their food and struggle to blow out bad teams. The Niners only covered a 14-point spread four times over the last two seasons. Before Week 1, this line was sitting at 10.5. It has moved three full points based on one week of results. That is an overreaction. Week 2 road 'dogs coming off a double-digit loss hit at an 83% rate. Teams that win by 17+ in Week 1 as underdogs of a touchdown or less (like the 49ers just did) are an ugly 3-15 ATS (17%) in Week 2. I have no idea how we get there—a key Dolphins special teams play, a sloppy tired Niners mistake, maybe a backdoor garbage-time touchdown—I don't care. Just give me the points.

THE BLITZ is forecasting 0.72 interceptions for Malik Willis compared to 0.89 interceptions implied by sportsbooks, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 62% of the time, resulting in a 35% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $34.92. This play is good down to at least -117. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz