49ers vs. Rams Odds & Betting Predictions - September 11, 2026

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Taking the under on CMC here, mainly because I think there are a lot of ways for this game to go where he doesn’t get to 60 rushing yards. This play is very similar to the Stevenson play from last night. The biggest one is game script. In games last year where the 49ers didn’t win by 7+ points, CMC went under this number in 10 of 12 games, averaging just 53. 1 rushing yards. That average even includes the massive 140-yard outlier against a bad Bears run defense. If this game is competitive or the Rams are able to get out in front, I think we see more of CMC’s work come through the passing game rather than him piling up rushing attempts. I’m also not particularly bullish on his rushing ability coming into this season. He averaged just 3.8 YPC last year, and I thought there were some pretty clear signs on film that he had regressed as a runner. Now he gets one of the tougher possible matchups against a Rams defense that I expect to be very good against the run with a dominant front of Myles Garrett, Byron Young, Poona Ford and Kobie Turner, combined with a 49ers offensive line that is weak on the interior and heavily reliant on 38 year old Trent Williams for stability. There’s also a little bit of added uncertainty around CMC’s workload coming into the season. He missed a good amount of camp with what was described as soreness/tightness. It sounds like the 49ers were being pretty intentional with his workload rather than dealing with a major injury, and CMC himself said the time away was “part of the plan” as they ramped him up and then brought him back down to keep him fresh for the season. I’m not going to assume that means a reduced Week 1 workload, but I do think it’s worth noting when we’re betting on a relatively high rushing-yard number. There’s also at least a chance that we see rookie Kaelon Black take some work. We know the 49ers were extremely high on Black coming out of the draft, as they came out and admitted to having him as their No. 2 RB on their board, and Shanahan has talked throughout the offseason about wanting to keep CMC fresh for the long run. I’m not baking a major workload reduction into the projection because Shanahan has said essentially the same thing for the last few years and CMC has continued to handle massive workloads, but it’s clear this team has been searching for an RB2 over the past few years. That gives us another path to the under if Black gets a handful of carries. Ultimately, I don’t need to project a dramatically reduced CMC workload for this to cash. Any one of the tree of a less favorable game script, the Rams to continue playing strong run defense, and CMC to remain around his 2025 efficiency would all set us up in prime position to cash this under. I think all three are very realistic outcomes, which makes 60.5 feel a little too high to me.

Seems like all the cool kids are doing it. I’ll sprinkle so I don’t get Raridon FOMO again.

There is a value opportunity on Brock Purdy's interceptions prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 0.74 interceptions, while sportsbooks imply 0.96. The model believes there is a 61% chance he records fewer than 0.5 interceptions, so there is some value on the under at +135. This play is good down to at least -111. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

It's our first ever game in Australia, and it's a huge NFC West divisional battle to kick things off Friday or Thursday or whenever they're playing this game. Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay know each other well, and these games always always end up close. The Rams have won four of the last five meetings with an overtime loss the mark against, but the 49ers had won nine of the previous 10 with just one overtime loss before that. The theme here is consistent, close games, with five of the last six matchups decided by one score. I don't trust the 49ers over 18 games and a playoff run because we know so many of the stars on this team will likely end up injured at some point, but for right now, just about every key 49er is healthy and playing. That means this team is probably a touch underrated in the market right now, even if I'm staying away from San Francisco futures long term. San Francisco's defense is the weak link on paper, but Shanahan's offense has consistently moved the ball well against the Rams. Last year even with Mac Jones starting both matchups, the 49ers moved the ball with relative ease, especially passing. The 49ers offense can be every bit as good as the Rams when healthy. A few Week 1 trends back the 49ers here. Division underdogs since 2015 are 64% against the spread (ATS), and road or neutral underdogs under seven are 65% ATS in Week 1 or 2 since 2019. There's also the Australia of it all. The 49ers traveled west a whole week before the Rams as the teams took very different strategies. There are arguments both directions for who this will work best for, as the Rams arrive with little time to acclimate to the time change before kickoff. The guess here is that helps San Francisco in this particular game, having had time to settle into Australia, though it will hurt the 49ers more in the weeks ahead since it's a bigger adjustment back. The Rams will barely even have time to settle in and thus the transition back may not be as tough, but it could make this game itself a tougher task. And as good as the Rams can be this season, remember that there's no Aaron Donald in this game, and we also haven't seen this incredible Rams offense yet in the preseason. Matthew Stafford didn't play last preseason either, and struggled starting the season, failing to score a single point until finally finding the end zone a minute before halftime in Week 1. They failed to cover that first half, and that's a trend for quarterbacks that sit out the preseason. By my count, teams with rusty QBs that didn't play in the preseason are now just 3-15 ATS (17%) in the first half of Week 1 over the last three years. I'll back the 49ers to get on the front foot early as the more settled-in team in Australia while Stafford and the Rams shake off the rust and try to find their way back into the game. Give me Niners 1H +2.5, and obviously look for a +3 out there if you can find the key number. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/49ers-vs-rams-picks-props-odds-predictions-thursday-night-football-australia-sept-10#1

There is a value opportunity on Tyler Higbee's receptions prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 1.40 receptions, while sportsbooks imply 1.99. The model believes there is a 60% chance he records fewer than 1.5 receptions, so there is some value on the under at +122. This play is good down to at least -110. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Boost

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker - was also eyeing this already

It might sound crazy to lay -152 fading the best defender on the planet, and maybe it is crazy. But I’m showing quite a bit of value here, and once I dug into the matchup it made a lot of sense. As I mentioned in my Brock Purdy rushing prop earlier, he was the toughest QB to sack when pressured last season, with just a 9.2% pressure-to-sack rate. His quick burst allows him to escape pressure and avoid sacks, which is a big reason the 49ers tend to provide opposing EDGE rushers with fewer tackles than your average offense. Garrett cleared 3.5 tackles + assists in 53% of his games last season, and that was during a year in which he had 23(!) sacks. The split that really stood out: in the six games where Garrett recorded 1.5+ sacks, he cleared this number every time. But in games where he had one sack or fewer, he cleared 3.5 tackles + assists just 27% of the time. That makes sense. A lot of Garrett’s tackle upside comes from sacks, and I think he’s much more likely to “only” get one sack or fewer tonight against Purdy. There’s also a chance the Rams limit Garrett’s snaps somewhat after he missed practice time over the last couple of weeks with a swollen knee. I have Garrett closer to -200 to stay Under 3.5 tackles + assists, so even at -152 I’m showing solid value. This also correlates nicely with my Purdy Over rushing yards prop. If Purdy is escaping Garrett and turning pressure into scramble yards instead of sacks/tackles, both bets can benefit from the same outcome. For sites like PrizePicks where you have to play 2+ props, you could pair Purdy Over 18.5 rushing yards with Garrett Under 0.75 sacks. I like that less than Garrett Under 3.5 tackles + assists, but they aren’t offering the tackle under.

For a few years now, I’ve been trying to remind people that Purdy has more rushing upside than I think the market gives him credit for. He has incredible burst. His 1.55-second 10-yard split is elite and 90th+ percentile among QBs. He tends to play within structure and usually uses that burst to escape pressure and buy time rather than immediately take off and run. It’s a huge reason why his 9.2% pressure-to-sack rate was the lowest among all qualified QBs last season. He’s one of, if not the toughest QB in the league to sack. However, Purdy has mentioned that he wants to use his legs a bit more this season to keep the chains moving, so I think this is a sneaky Week 1 market to invest in. There are also several factors that could elevate his scramble rate tonight. The Rams should be able to generate even more pressure with Myles Garrett now on the team, which could force Purdy out of the pocket at a higher rate. More pressure isn’t necessarily a bad thing for this prop given how good Purdy is at avoiding sacks and extending plays. The 49ers also have a QB sneak play that tends to pick up 2-3 yards at a time. They were a bit more cautious using it with Purdy last season due to his toe injury, but we could see 1-2 of those tonight. Those are valuable hidden yards when we only need 18. There are some game-script factors working in our favor as well. As 3.5-point underdogs, there’s a lower chance Purdy is taking kneels at the end of the game for negative yardage. If the 49ers are playing from behind, that should also increase his dropback volume and create more potential scramble opportunities. I have Purdy closer to a 58% chance to clear 17.5 rushing yards, but this is one of those Week 1 props where I think he may have even more upside than I’m accounting for in my raw projections given his stated intention to run more. Brock Purdy Over 17.5 Rushing Yards is my prop of the game.

Profit boost play I would still play it a normal line without the boos but wouldn’t go past -200

@Stuckey2 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-week-1-betting-preview/id1004530793?i=1000788564665

Corum is the 1b to Williams 1a and had 44+ rushing yards in 9 of 13 games after last year's week eight bye

@KendraMiddleton_ @BKPicks https://open.spotify.com/episode/3Mq6hZT1xRt2mUhl18cQvb?si=GcCrvo8NSWSs3q7nT3Jbcw&utm_source=copy-link

NFL POD

Open Air Unders: Divisional Drift Overall: 395-286-8,58% (ROI:12%) Season:19-12-0,61% (ROI:17%) Open Air Unders: Divisional Drift - copy Overall: 280-197-4,59% (ROI:14%) Season:12-9-0,57% (ROI:10%) #TSA