Jets vs. Titans Odds & Betting Predictions - September 13, 2026

From The Lunch Break! Every Fridays 1PM EST Tennessee is laying points with a new head coach in Robert Saleh, a new coordinator in Brian Daboll, and a quarterback who finished near the bottom of the league in passing EPA as a rookie. The Jets replaced the failed Justin Fields experiment with Geno Smith, rebuilt the offensive line, and spent the second overall pick on edge rusher David Bailey. The total is 38.5, one of the lowest on the board, so I want the outcome instead of a hook I'll never use, and at +105 I need 48.8 percent while FPI has Tennessee winning 58.

@The_Oddsmaker https://www.youtube.com/live/rmDj16Ak_rs?is=_BhFd9HeUh9fVv17

Have to play this for some shits

Over Low Total Non Div Overall: 156-93-4,63% (ROI:22%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%) #TSA

The Toilet Bowl is one of the trickier games to cap this week, but this is the play I kept coming back to. It’s not really a math-driven bet as much as a “Week 1 has a ton of uncertainty and I think this spot benefits from it” type of play. Allen missed most of last season with an MCL injury, but he’s 100% healthy now and looked sharp in camp and limited preseason action. He reportedly got up to around 250 pounds in June while saying he had added muscle and was at the lowest body-fat percentage of his career. So he might be the closest thing we have to Derrick Henry, and his role is similar in that he’s primarily an early-down/short-yardage hammer. Breece Hall is still the clear lead back and should be healthy, but he missed a lot of camp with a groin injury, so there could be more spots than usual where the Jets give him a breather. The other thing I like is game script. The Jets are constantly playing from behind, which usually caps Allen’s workload, but this is one of the rare spots where the game is closer to a coin flip. I have the Jets projected to play with the lead at a whopping 21% higher rate than they did last season, which quietly gives Allen more paths to extra carries. Titans LB Cedric Gray is also out, which is a meaningful loss for their run defense. My cautious projection has Allen around 19 rushing yards with roughly a 55% chance to clear 17.5, but this is one of those Week 1 spots where I think the upside is higher than the raw projection suggests. That’s also why on prediction markets I’d rather attack Temu Derrick Henry’s 20+ rushing-yard market than settle for 15+.

@The_Oddsmaker https://open.spotify.com/episode/0FRCvBCOjsMbSyaB9McQxr?si=qion2LxCRuqOsRTD66bmrg&utm_source=copy-link

There may be some value on the rush attempts prop for Tyjae Spears. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 9.05 rush attempts, and the oddsmakers are implying 7.46. The model believes there is a 64% chance he records at least 6.5 rush attempts, so there is value on the over at +105. This play is good down to at least -127. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

@DougKezirian https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-week-1-betting-preview/id1004530793?i=1000788564665

Early road dogs that missed the previous postseason day games Overall: 130-69-6,65% (ROI:27%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%) #TSA