Eagles vs. Jaguars Odds & Betting Predictions - October 11, 2026

Big Line Movement Dogs Overall: 26-11-0,70% (ROI:34%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%) #TSA

Pls

Low Wind Non Div Overs Overall: 446-315-11,59% (ROI:14%) Season:4-6-0,40% (ROI:-25%) #TSA

Oluokun still hasn’t cleared this number this year, although Week 1 was limited and Jacksonville has also pulled him late in a couple blowouts. He’s going to get there soon, but I don’t think this is the spot. I’m projecting Philly to give Jacksonville roughly 7.5 fewer completions but 7.5 more rush attempts than it has faced on average. That matters because Oluokun has been much more involved cleaning up pass plays, while Ventrell Miller has been a tackling machine against the run and should steal some of those extra opportunities that might’ve gone to Foye a year ago. There’s another sneaky angle too: Oluokun often cleans up runs once they get to the second level. With Barkley out and the Eagles OL hit hard after Lane Johnson’s retirement and Cam Jurgens being traded, Philly could get stuffed more often before those plays ever reach him. I have Oluokun closer to 7.7 tackles with around a 63% chance to stay under 8.5.

Last week gave us our first look at the Eagles WR rotation without DeVonta Smith and it played out pretty much how I expected: Darius Cooper essentially took over the Smith role, while Wicks and Lemon stayed in their usual spots. Cooper obviously isn’t going to command the same target share as Smith, so everyone gets a little bump. But Wicks’ first-read rate actually fell to a season-low 13%, while Zach Ertz jumped all the way to 36%. Johnny Mundt was also out there running wind sprints on 59% of routes, and now Dallas Goedert is back. That’s where this gets interesting. Goedert is obviously going to command way more targets than Mundt, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Philly leans into more 2TE+ sets with Goedert/Ertz, especially after losing Lane Johnson and Cam Jurgens and with Smith still out. Add in Saquon being out and I could also see them using Will Shipley more in the pass game as an extension of the run. My guess is Wicks/Cooper are used more to stretch Jacksonville vertically while Lemon, Goedert, Ertz and Shipley work underneath. Wicks’ aDOT was 15.1 yards in Weeks 1-3 before dropping to 7.8 last week, and I could see it moving back up here. That’s why I want to fade receptions, not yards. If Wicks gets 3 catches for 60+ yards, great, I wouldn’t be surprised at all. I’m actually showing slight value on his receiving yards over. I have him closer to 3.2 catches with around a 59% chance to stay under 3.5. And if the role shifts the way I think it might, his reception floor gets even lower while his yardage ceiling gets higher. Sneaky reverse-correlation parlay would be Wicks Under 3.5 receptions + Over receiving yards.

Brandon’s Playground Week 5 pod

Philadelphia hasn't exactly played rushing juggernaut QBs, facing Matthew Stafford, Cam Ward, and Case Keenum in three of four games so far this season. But in the one game they did play a rushing QB, they held Jayden Daniels to 31 yards -- 19 yards below his career average. The Eagles just don't create pressure, ranking bottom five in raw pressure and pressure rate over expectation so far this season. They also play zone coverage at a top-10 rate, so QBs are much less inclined to scramble without pressure and with defenders facing them in zone coverage instead of turning their backs in man coverage. Lawrence is hovering at a career low for rushing attempts per game, thanks in part to the Jags 3-1 start. As about a touchdown favorite here, he shouldn't need to scramble any more than he already has been, so my model projects just 1.7 scrambles at 7.8 yards a pop. There's the occasional designed run or sneak, but those are mostly offset by potential kneeldowns, so I'm projecting Lawrence for an average of 15 yards. But that's the average. His median is 12 yards, with a 59% chance to stay under 15.5 yards. This is still playable at under 14.5 yards as well, but that's as low as I'd go.

There may be some value on the receptions prop for Darius Cooper. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 3.14 receptions, and the oddsmakers are implying 2.53. The model believes there is a 56% chance he records at least 2.5 receptions, so there is value on the over at +135. This play is good down to at least +104. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

@wheatonbrando https://youtu.be/Spi9x-cD95o?is=hxVjF6Y5FWuRPA4F

@The_Oddsmaker https://youtu.be/D-VSFIRKqec?is=hMOaINyXZnMG7eG3

Smith injury