Patriots vs. Jaguars Odds & Betting Predictions - September 27, 2026
Patriots at Jaguars
5:00 pm • CBSPatriots at Jaguars Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Patriots 3-2 | +1.5 | -2.5-110 | o46.5-112 | -134 |
 Jaguars 4-1 | u45.5 | -3-109 | u46.5-105 | -160 |
EverBank StadiumJacksonville
Patriots vs. Jaguars Expert Picks
Stuck 🚨
Last 30d: 70-66-1 (+2.4u)
NE +7.5 (Live)-114
0.08u
Great middle spot here
Mjaybrod
Last 30d: 53-78-1 (-25.1u)
Over 45.5-115
1u
Sean Zerillo
Last 30d: 118-107-7 (+0.6u)
Over 45.5-113
0.28u
Charlie DiSturco
Last 30d: 98-169-0 (+17.5u)
JAC o23.5-117
1u
Bet Labs
Last 30d: 10-14-0 (-6.0u)
Over 45.5-120
1.2u
John Feltman
Last 30d: 78-58-0 (+9.0u)
Over 46-110
1.1u
Charlie DiSturco
Last 30d: 98-169-0 (+17.5u)
P.Washington Anytime TD Scorer Yes+170
0.51u
Nick Giffen
Last 30d: 42-87-0 (-0.7u)
Q.Morris First Touchdown Scorer Yes+10000
0.1u
Over 46-108
0.54u
Luck over
Vegas Refund
Last 30d: 31-31-2 (-3.6u)
JAC -2.5-114
1u
💰🦡 Jake
Last 30d: 66-77-1 (+3.6u)
R.Doubs Anytime TD Scorer Yes+295
0.4u
Topper
Last 30d: 181-158-7 (+16.3u)
Over 45.5-115
1u
Went Under Now Take Over
Overall: 102-44-1,70% (ROI:36%)
Season:1-0-0,100% (ROI:98%)
#TSA
JAC -145
0.69u
Short Line With Movement
Overall: 129-59-0,69% (ROI:23%)
Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)
#TSA
Player Prop Savant
Last 30d: 92-74-0 (+12.3u)
P.Washington o65.5 Rec Yds-115
1.15u
Austin Pendergrass
Last 30d: 57-46-0 (+3.4u)
P.Washington o4.5 Recs-160
0.5u
One of my favorite straight plays for tomorrow. Washington has 5 and 7 receptions in the first two games and has one of the top target shares in the league and has 18 targets so far. He should avoid the Gonzalez shadow for the most part since Gonzalez doesn’t travel to the slot very much and that’s where Washington does damage. Should be a competitive game which means should have plenty of opportunities here
The Degenerates
Last 30d: 51-49-1 (-1.1u)
JAC -2.5-118
1u
Alex Hinton
Last 30d: 82-97-4 (-15.1u)
P.Washington o65.5 Rec Yds-120
1u
Sandy Plashkes
Last 30d: 99-85-2 (+44.4u)
JAC -2.5-115
1.5u
Nick Giffen
Last 30d: 42-87-0 (-0.7u)
T.Lawrence u10.5 Longest Rush-130
1u
Sean Koerner🔮
Last 30d: 41-49-0 (+0.6u)
C.Elliss o9.5 Tackles + Ast+660
0.1u
🪜
C.Elliss o7.5 Tackles + Ast+204
0.3u
🪜
C.Elliss o8.5 Tackles + Ast+370
0.2u
🪜
C.Elliss o6.5 Tackles + Ast+112
0.5u
When I first ran this game, I had to double-check why I was so much higher on Elliss than the market. The answer was pretty obvious: his role has completely changed.
Elliss played around 50% of the snaps last year, but through two games he’s basically become a full-time player at 99%. Robert Spillane is still healthy and handling his usual every-down role, so for now this clearly looks intentional.
Maybe Elliss settles closer to 80-90% this week, but in a spot where New England could actually be playing from behind, I don’t see a huge reason for his playing time to suddenly crater. I’m also projecting the Patriots defense for around 3.1 more tackle opportunities than usual.
The other interesting part is Elliss’ run tackle rate has actually been lower through two games than it was last season. If that regresses back toward his usual rate while he keeps this expanded role, my projection would be even higher.
I have him closer to 8.3 tackles with around a 70% chance to clear 6.5 if the near full-time role sticks.
I’m also laddering it:
7+ +204 (proj. -140)
9+ +370 (proj. +125)
10+ +660 (proj. +210)
Frank Ammirante
Last 30d: 78-84-0 (-17.9u)
Over 45.5-115
1.15u
Gilles Gallant
Last 30d: 20-51-1 (+1.2u)
R.Stevenson u37.5 Rush Yds-109
0.5u
Doug Ziefel
Last 30d: 342-379-7 (+13.1u)
R.Stevenson u37.5 Rush Yds-115
0.5u
Sean Koerner🔮
Last 30d: 41-49-0 (+0.6u)
R.Stevenson u37.5 Rush Yds-109
0.5u
Every time it looks like TreVeyon Henderson might finally be cutting into Rhamondre’s role because of better play or another fumble, assuming it actually happens has burned people. I joked last year that maybe Stevenson had blackmail on Vrabel. Maybe that situation has changed a bit 😉
Rhamondre has basically operated near the ceiling of his role for most of the last two seasons, even in Week 1 when Henderson was out. Now Henderson looks fully healthy after the ankle injury, is entering Year 2 and saw his playing time increase after Stevenson’s fumble last week. I think there are finally enough red flags to gamble on something closer to a 50/50 playing-time split, with Stevenson still handling more of the passing-down work.
That matters because New England is a 3-point road dog, giving them a better chance of playing from behind and lowering the overall rushing volume. Stevenson also runs inside at one of the highest rates in the league, which plays directly into the strength of Jacksonville’s run defense. So even if he gets a couple more carries than I’m expecting, I still think the efficiency could be ugly.
I have him closer to 33.5 rushing yards with around a 59% chance to stay under 37.5. There are just a lot more paths to a floor game than a ceiling game here.
Kendra Middleton
Last 30d: 11-24-0 (-2.6u)
Under 46.5-102
0.49u
TAN Pod Touchdown Show
Last 30d: 22-100-6 (-8.2u)
R.Doubs Anytime TD Scorer Yes+300
0.33u
T.Lawrence Anytime TD Scorer Yes+310
0.32u
Babs .
Last 30d: 45-39-1 (+0.3u)
B.Tuten o9.5 Rec Yds-117
1.14u
Mike McNamara
Last 30d: 64-67-1 (+0.0u)
JAC -155
0.29u
RoyalsProps
Last 30d: 28-34-1 (-11.8u)
Over 45-114
1.14u
Adam Kaufman
Last 30d: 261-275-7 (-28.8u)
NE +0.5 (3Q)-145
0.36u
Kendra Middleton
Last 30d: 11-24-0 (-2.6u)
J.Meyers Anytime TD Scorer Yes+227
0.57u
Kody Malstrom
Last 30d: 62-54-1 (+0.9u)
JAC -2.5-116
0.5u
Tyler Shoemaker
Last 30d: 64-83-1 (-13.8u)
NE +3-108
1.08u
Under 45-110
1u
Action Pod NFL Picks
Last 30d: 48-93-0 (+1.2u)
JAC -3-102
0.98u
Brandon Kravitz
Last 30d: 46-58-1 (-10.4u)
JAC -3+105
1.05u
Some liquidity on a plus-money Jags -3 on ProphetX. The Jags have been a printing press at home (8-1 ATS last 9) fresh off a loss with a bounce back opp vs a Pats team that does not pass the eye test right now.
Doug Ziefel
Last 30d: 342-379-7 (+13.1u)
T.Henderson o9.5 Rush Att-120
0.6u
Derek Carty
Last 30d: 32-38-5 (+5.7u)
T.Henderson o9.5 Rush Att-106
1.06u
There may be some value on the rush attempts prop for TreVeyon Henderson. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 14.54 rush attempts, and the oddsmakers are implying 10.35. The model believes there is a 81% chance he records at least 9.5 rush attempts, so there is value on the over at -106. This play is good down to at least -236.
Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz
John Feltman
Last 30d: 78-58-0 (+9.0u)
JAC -3+100
0.5u
Doug Ziefel
Last 30d: 342-379-7 (+13.1u)
JAC -2.5-120
0.5u
Over 44.5-108
0.54u
Stuck 🚨
Last 30d: 70-66-1 (+2.4u)
JAC -2.5-115
0.48u
OldSchool0909
Last 30d: 48-75-2 (-23.0u)
JAC -2.5-115
0.87u
Patriots vs. Jaguars Previews & Analysis
Patriots vs. Jaguars Props
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Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Patriots vs. Jaguars Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Jaguars are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Jaguars are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Jaguars are 1-1 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Jaguars' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Jaguars' 2 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Patriots vs. Jaguars Injury Updates
Patriots Injuries
- Mack HollinsWR
Hollins is out with calf
Out
- A.J. BrownWR
Brown is out with ankle
Out
- TreVeyon HendersonRB
Henderson is out with ankle
Out
Jaguars Injuries
Team Stats
Patriots vs. Jaguars Odds Comparison
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Patriots at Jaguars Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
|---|---|---|
Patriots 3-2 | N/A | N/A |
Jaguars 4-1 | N/A | N/A |