Rams vs. Broncos Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2026

Can free roll/middle 4 team teaser if you tailed

Denver ranks 28th in DVOA against the run, and I don’t expect them to be that bad going forward. DVOA also isn’t fully capturing context like Kansas City suddenly becoming a much more dangerous rushing offense with Kenneth Walker. What I care about more is how Denver has been getting hurt. They’ve been vulnerable on outside runs, allowing 1+ yard before contact at a high rate and the 6th-most yards before contact on outside runs. That showed up against Tuten too, not just Walker. That’s a pretty perfect fit for Corum. On outside runs from 13 personnel where he gets at least a yard before contact, he averaged 6.8 YPC last year, 4th among qualified backs, and he’s at 7.7 YPC on those runs this year. Without Puka, I’m expecting the Rams to lean more run-heavy and use more heavy TE personnel, which should create more of those looks. Corum is definitely game-script dependent, so if the Rams fall behind by 1-2 scores early, this gets ugly fast. But they’re only 1.5-point road dogs, and after getting blown out in Week 1, I’m projecting them to play with the lead at roughly a 34% higher rate than they have through the first two games combined. That should simply be a much better volume environment for Corum. I have him closer to 51.5 rushing yards with around a 59% chance to clear 46.5, and I really like the upside here for the best backup RB in football.

Primetime Unders Overall: 175-105-6,63% (ROI:20%) Season:1-1-0,50% (ROI:-5%) SNF and MNF Unders Overall: 98-62-2,61% (ROI:18%) Season:0-1-0,0% (ROI:-100%) Night Time Unders Overall: 133-74-2,64% (ROI:23%) Season:0-2-0,0% (ROI:-100%) #TSA

Pressing like last Sunday.

SNF Boost

THE BLITZ is forecasting 8.40 rush attempts for RJ Harvey. The oddsmakers' implied projection is 6.35 rush attempts, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 75% of the time resulting in a 29% ROI with expected value of $40.00 (based on a $100 wager). This play is good down to at least -186. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

@gneiffer07 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-touchdown-show-week-3/id1004530793?i=1000791547972

The Rams have given up the sixth fewest receiving yards to opposing TEs and Engram saw his work drop in W2, with a decrease in routes run (39% of the team's dropbacks).