2024 Super Bowl Picks & Props: 4 Bets on Christian McCaffrey, More

I have made four more 2024 Super Bowl picks & props for 49ers-Chiefs. I got more into a couple of unique markets that will only be offered for the Super Bowl.

Click on a Super Bowl pick below to navigate this post.

2024 Super Bowl Picks & Props: 4 Bets on Christian McCaffrey, More

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Brown is the 49ers’ rookie safety. I had to give this one out first because this number won’t last long

This one should be closer to 15-1. You don’t even have to take my word for it, just look at the tackle + assist market.

Fred Warner, Nick Bolton and Dre Greenlaw should be the three clear favorites for this market, but the next two highest props are safeties Justin Reid and Ja’Ayir Brown, both projected to get around six tackles.

Well, Reid is +850 and Brown is +7500.

I do think Brown has a path to taking down this market, too. There’s a chance that Warner and Greenlaw eat into each other's tackles and end up with 7-9 each.

Brown had 10 tackles against the Lions in the NFC Championship Game. He was involved in Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown receptions, as well as runs where David Montgomery or Jahmyr Gibbs got into the second level.

The Chiefs will provide similar upside with Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice and Pacheco runs getting into the second level. He should be closer to 15-1, and I would be shocked if he’s already been bet down by the time you read this.

You can find this prop under "Super Bowl Leaders" all the way to the right on the main NFL page at DraftKings.

James’ main competition is Ray-Ray McCloud on the 49ers side, and he’s also -110. These are the only two players listed for this market.

I think we can treat both returners as pretty even in terms of yards per punt return (and total punts for each team). The key for this prop will be who has the most punt returns, and everything points to James being more likely to have two returns, with McCloud more likely to have one, which would be massive for this market.

Roughly 42% of punts in the NFL were returned this year. McCloud returned 51% of punts while James returned 47% of his punts.

After analyzing how many returns over expected for each returner, I found James had a much more difficult strength of schedule and would expect him to return around 7% more punts than McCloud against a league-average punter.

49ers punter Mitch Wishnowsky saw 44% of his punts returned. He tends to punt it lower and farther than the league average, which is ideal for returns. San Francisco ranks fourth worst in punt return coverage DVOA.

Chiefs punter Tommy Townsend, meanwhile, only had 32% of his punts returned (fourth lowest). He tends to sky it and has one of the longest hang times every season, making it tougher to return. Also, Kansas City is around the league average in punt return coverage DVOA.

Therefore, based on James better odds of returning 2+ punts, I’m showing him with around a 60% chance to lead the game in punt return yards.

It’s also worth pointing out that there is a non-zero chance we could see Deebo Samuel return a punt for the 49ers. If that was to happen it would only improve our bet on James, who seems very likely to return all of the Chiefs’ punts.

On the main Super Bowl page, under FanDuel's “SB LVIII Specials,” go down to the “Fastest Ball Carrier Recorded – Next Gen Stats”

I love this market and it’ll be a fun one to sweat. It’s one that is very top-heavy since it’ll likely be either Deebo Samuel, Isiah Pacheco, Brandon Aiyuk, Rashee Rice or McCaffrey who takes it down, and they are all being offered at 6-1 or better

I think the best value currently is McCaffrey at +790, and it’s kind of crazy that he has the longest odds of the top five.

Based on the fastest ball carrier data for both teams, he would have won this market about 20% of the time this year. That translates to about +400 fair odds. He also had the fastest speed among both teams this season at 20.93 mph (Week 2).

Samuel, Aiyuk and Rice are threats to take this down, but McCaffrey and Pacheco will get the most chances to break one. CMC has hit 20 mph or higher twice this season, and Pacheco has hit that rate three times.

I would have Pacheco as the slight favorite to take this down, but McCaffrey is offering the best value currently at +790 and I think he should be closer to +400.

This prop is under “Receiving Props” on the Super Bowl game page and can be found at Isiah Pacheco Alternate Receiving Yards.

This is a prop that you can use my Super Bowl Prop Calculator to find value on. I’m showing some slight value on his Under 16.5 yards at -115, but getting the extra seven yards is well worth the -175 price tag. I’m showing way more value going this route.

Pacheco’s receiving usage went way up after Jerick McKinnon was placed on the injured reserve back in Week 16. His routes run rate was 40% with McKinnon active and 60% with him inactive.

McKinnon returned to practice this week, and there appears to be a good chance he will play. I don’t have him cutting into Pacheco’s receiving usage as much as usual, but his presence definitely lowers Pacheco’s floor/ceiling combo in this market.

Like I said, I found the sweet spot to fade Pacheco in this market is Under 23.5 rec yds at -175.