49ers vs Chiefs Predictions: Data-Driven Super Bowl Picks
Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Jones.
49ers vs Chiefs Predictions: Data-Driven Super Bowl Picks
Billy Ward from Action Network's Predictive Analytics staff has targeted unique Super Bowl prop bets for betting markets that include a potential safety, team to record most sacks, missed field goals, unanswered scores and more. Check out his 49ers vs Chiefs predictions and data-driven Super Bowl picks below.
Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:30 p.m. | ||
| 6:30 p.m. | ||
| 6:30 p.m. | ||
| 6:30 p.m. | ||
| 6:30 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
49ers vs. Chiefs: Unanswered Scores Prop
The +140 line is almost exactly the historical average for games with spreads of 2.5 points. My five-season sample size has the precise number there at +140.26.
However, the consensus line as of Saturday has moved down to 49ers -2, with -1.5 available at some sportsbooks. All games with a spread of two or less have a fair line of around +125, with a better chance on “no” the closer the spread gets.
Even with a somewhat high total (47.5), that’s still more than enough to take this bet, particularly if we see more spreads of 1.5 on the board closer to kickoff.
You can find this in the "Game Props" section at DraftKings.
Pick: Either Team to Score 3 Unanswered Times (No; +140)
Use Action Network’s DraftKings promo code to get a signup bonus when betting on the Super Bowl!
49ers vs. Chiefs: Team to Record Most Sacks
The adjusted sack rates for both teams offensively and defensively paints a compelling picture.
The Chiefs rank second on offense with just a 4.7% adjusted sack rate; the 49ers rank 17th at 7.3%. Whether that's a testament to Patrick Mahomes or the offensive line is an open question, but either way it helps this prop.
Similarly, the Chiefs pass rush was the league's only unit to finish with an adjusted sack rate over 10%; the 49ers ranked 17th at 7.8%.
We have the Chiefs projected for 2.6 sacks and the 49ers for 1.8, so there's a reasonable chance of a push — but Kansas City is far more likely to win. I'd take the Chiefs to -180.
You can find this bet in the "D/ST Props" section at FanDuel.
Pick: Team Sacks Head to Head: Chiefs (-162)
Are you in North Carolina? With North Carolina sports betting expected to launch on March 11, you’ll be able to bet legally at major sportsbooks. Learn more!
49ers vs. Chiefs: Safety Prop
There are a ton of methods to price the ever-popular safety prop for the Super Bowl.
We could look at the history of safeties in the Super Bowl specifically, though it's worth noting the two Super Bowls since that article was written didn't have a safety. We could look at the safety rates in playoff games, or the rate for the entire NFL this season.
Those methods are weighing sample size against specificity: rule changes, evolving strategies and varied levels of player ability change over time. I prefer to use all games in this NFL season. In the 2023-24 season, there were 15 safeties in 272 regular-season games, good for a rate of 5.5%, or roughly -1700.
However, three of those were from the Jets, so if we remove them from the sample size — which is reasonable given their quarterback situation and general dysfunction — the rate drops to 4.4%, or close to -2200 odds for a safety.
While I'm not sure how much this actually matters, the 49ers and Chiefs have not allowed a safety all season.
It's an ugly bet as you have to risk quite a bit, but the math checks out. You can find this in the Prop Bets section at Caesars Sportsbook.
Pick: No Safety (-1600)
Check out the new-user Caesars Sportsbook promo code offer before placing your bets.
49ers vs. Chiefs: QB Sneak for First Down or TD
I’m generally not a fan of betting into one-way markets, but I think DraftKings has mispriced this slightly.
As far as I can tell, Patrick Mahomes hasn’t run any quarterback sneaks this season, at least not any that converted first downs (he has no rushing touchdowns on the season). However, Brock Purdy has nine such plays in 18 games.
That’s not the same as saying he scrambles for a first or a score in half the games, of course. Three of those were “repeats,” meaning he accomplished the feat in “just” six of 18 games.
Still, that works out to implied odds of +200 before we even consider the chance that Mahomes and the Chiefs call a QB sneak in the Super Bowl – there’s a first time for everything.
Pick: QB Sneak for First Down/TD — Yes (+330)
49ers vs. Chiefs: Any Missed Field Goal
This one isn’t a huge edge, but our projections have Harrison Butker to average 1.8 made field goals on 2.0 attempts and Jake Moody to average 1.5 makes on 1.8 attempts.
When you do the math, that works out to roughly half of a missed field goal per game if we played the Super Bowl hundreds of times – or roughly a 50% chance.
While that math doesn’t work out exactly – there’s a slight but non-zero chance of multiple missed kicks in the same game – it’s close enough to give us a slight edge at +110.
Pick: Any Missed Field Goal — Yes (+110)
ESPN Bet is another sportsbook option to maximize your Super Bowl prop bets. Use our ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS for a new-user welcome.
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
