49ers vs. Ravens Betting Picks, Predictions & Odds: Lamar Jackson & Co. Overvalued?

49ers vs. Ravens Betting Picks, Predictions & Odds: Lamar Jackson & Co. Overvalued? article feature image

Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lamar Jackson, Willie Snead

  • The Baltimore Ravens host the San Francisco 49ers as 5.5-point favorites.
  • Our experts analyze every angle of this heavyweight showdown.
  • Find their take on this spread, picks and more outlined below.

49ers at Ravens Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

  • Odds: Ravens -5.5
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Friday afternoon.

It’s no surprise that the public is buying the Baltimore Ravens off a blowout win on Monday Night Football, with 60% of tickets and 70% of money coming in on Lamar Jackson and Co. to cover as 5.5-point favorites against the San Francisco 49ers. But are bettors undervaluing Kyle Shanahan’s 10-1 squad?

Our experts analyze every angle of this Week 13 matchup, featuring the mismatch that could decide the game as well as a staff pick.

49ers-Ravens Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Ravens

The Ravens’ biggest injury of note is linebacker Matthew Judon, who missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle injury. Judon is one of their best pass-rushers and leads the team in quarterback pressures, sacks, hits and hurries (per Pro Football Focus).

The 49ers, meanwhile, have a lengthy injury report with their usual suspects of late: Matt Breida (ankle), George Kittle (knee/ankle), Dante Pettis (knee), Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder) are all on it. Basically their whole offense. Pettis got injured in practice and was downgraded on Thursday, so I wouldn’t expect him to play. The others appear on track to play.

Dee Ford (quad/hamstring) still hasn’t resumed practicing. His potential absence would be good news for the Ravens since Ford is one of San Francisco’s best players at getting after the quarterback. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Friday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matt Breida, George Kittle

Biggest Mismatch

Ravens Offense vs. 49ers Defense

The biggest mismatch whenever the Ravens play a team for the first time is their unique offense.

Not only do they run a scheme that teams don’t see the rest of the season, they also have the speed and accuracy combo of Lamar Jackson, who has defensive coordinators around the league scrambling on how to stop him and the Ravens’ elite rushing attack while also covering up the receivers and tight ends on the back end.  Their unheralded offensive line play also doesn’t hurt.

Nobody has seemed to come up with a solution as of yet. And that shock value usually leads to the Ravens taking an early lead, which sets them up for how they want to play the rest of the game: Pound the rock and play an aggressive style of defense with heavy blitzing and blanket coverage on the outside with their three elite corners.

If the Ravens make you play from behind and turn you into a one-dimensional team, that plays right into the strength of their defense: Stopping the pass.

However, there are still holes up the middle of this Ravens defense, specifically when it comes to stopping the run. And who better to exploit that than Shanahan, assuming the 49ers can stay in the game early and committed to the run against a Baltimore defense that ranks 24th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA.

I don’t think either team will have much success throwing the ball against two of the NFL’s best secondaries, especially when you take a look at the forecast for Charm City: Winds and rain all Sunday. Therefore, this will come down to which team can have more sustained success on the ground against the other’s vulnerable rush defense.

You’d have to give a slight edge to Jackson, but don’t be surprised if both teams can grind clock on the ground with longer drives, which lends itself to the under.

Mark andrews-Lamar jackson
Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mark Andrews, Lamar Jackson

The other X-factor could be the tight end position. Jackson loves to throw to his tight ends, but the 49ers rank No. 1 in defending the position (per Football Outsiders). Conversely, the Ravens — who remain a little weak up the middle — struggle to defend tight ends and rank 20th.

That could mean a big day for Kittle, one of the league’s best tight ends in the NFL. It’ll be intriguing to see which types of formations the 49ers use — specifically how often they utilize two tight end or two back sets — to see if the Ravens use one of their three top-tier corners on Kittle. Stuckey

Sean Koerner‘s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Ravens -6
  • Projected Total: 47.5

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Under 46.5

Given the weather and two excellent secondaries, I think this will be an extremely run-heavy game between two of the NFL’s best teams.

After what the Ravens offense has done of late, the market is pricing this total, which is why I like the under. With the game script I assume for both teams, I expect the clock to be moving swiftly with two teams that don’t play fast.

I like the under down to 45.

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