5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Colts vs. Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, Including Ezekiel Elliott, Matt Ryan
Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Ezekiel Elliott.
We wrote earlier on Sunday about the valuable spread pick for this contest, which fades teams that have covered well throughout the season.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Colts vs. Cowboys
- Ezekiel Elliott under 14.5 rushing attempts +100 (DraftKings)
- Matt Ryan over 31.5 pass attempts -114 (FanDuel)
- Matt Ryan over 3.5 rushing yards -105 (DraftKings)
- Michael Gallup over 3.5 receptions +120 (DraftKings)
- Parris Campbell over 3.5 receptions -105 (PointsBet)
*Odds and data are as of Sunday afternoon. These are the market’s most valuable prices.
The most valuable prop for Sunday Night Football’s Colts vs. Cowboys is on Ezekiel Elliott to rush for 14 times or fewer.
Our models expect Elliott to rush for about 13.2 times on Sunday night. That gives the bet a roughly 15% betting edge, especially at a +100 vig at DraftKings.
Essentially, you’re getting a 15% discount on the true price of that prop bet, according to our algorithms.
Matt Ryan’s two player prop bets provide about 9% and 5% in value. The veteran QB is expected to throw the ball about 33.5 times tonight. Compare that to his line at o31.5 (-115) at FanDuel.
And while Ryan seldom tucks it and runs, our models expect him to net about four yards on average on Sunday. That gives DraftKings’ line of -105 a 5% betting edge.
Meanwhile, the two receivers in question are expected to net about four receptions tonight, on average. Gallup’s betting discount is far better on account of the +120 vig.