Koerner’s AAF Power Ratings: Compare Lines to My Projections to Find the Best Week 5 Bets

We're switching things up for our Week 5 AAF Power Ratings.

Rather than using my ratings to make picks based on opening lines, we'll be using my projected spreads and totals to identify what lines we should be looking to bet in all four games.

To take this a step further, I've created a spreadsheet that you can plug whatever line and juice is available at your sportsbook to get an estimate of your perceived edge using my power ratings. I also felt it would help to have a recommended bet amount based on the size of your bankroll, which you can customize in the sheet.

You can download the Excel file at the end of this story, but for now, here's a pre-filled example:

Now let's get into Week 5.

Here are my power ratings as of writing, which I've used to estimate lines for each matchup. We'll dig into all four below:

Orlando Apollos (4-0) at Birmingham Iron (3-1)

• Projected spread: Orlando -4.5
• Projected total: 39.5
• Time: 2 p.m. ET on Saturday
• TV: TNT

The Apollos are still the only undefeated team. They have clearly established themselves as the league's No. 1 team — by a fairly wide margin I might add.

It's possible that the public is still overrating Birmingham as the Iron are now 3-1, but two of those wins came against the AAF's bottom-two teams while the third was a luck-filled victory over Salt Lake.

I have this matchup pegged at right around Orlando -4.5, and I expect the line to open right around there. The spread would have to be off by 2.5 or more points before they even trigger a bet amount in the spreadsheet, so I'm not expecting there to be a value bet here.

Meanwhile, the under has gone 12-4 through four weeks. A lot of that has to do with the market slowly moving the average total down from around 50 to around 40. The median final has been 37.5 so far, and I have the average total being around 39 for this week.

I don't anticipate there being much value in any totals this week as they should all range from 37.5 to 39.5.

Salt Lake Stallions (1-3) at San Diego Fleet (2-2)

• Projected spread: Salt Lake -1.5
• Projected total: 37.5
• Time: 8 p.m. ET on Saturday
• TV: NFL Network

San Diego appears to have lost starting quarterback Philip Nelson indefinitely.

The Fleet turned to Alex Ross after Nelson left last week's game in the first half and it did not go well. They blew a 20-6 lead and handed Memphis its first win of the season.

Coach Mike Martz could decide to go back to Week 1 starter in Mike Bercovici. Either way, this is a bit of a drop-off at the most critical position. So we need to adjust accordingly.

If Nelson were healthy, I would peg this matchup around San Diego -1.5. Since he's pretty much all but ruled out, I'm deducting them by roughly three points and have Salt Lake favored by -1.5.

I'll be looking for books to make the mistake of either opening the Fleet as slight favorites — ideally of 3 points — or by overestimating the drop-off from Nelson.

Memphis Express (1-3) at Atlanta Legends (1-3)

• Projected spread: Memphis -1
• Projected total: 38.5
• Time: 4 p.m. ET on Sunday
• TV: CBS Sports Network

Week 5 is full of intriguing matchups, but this one features the league's worst teams that happen to be coming off their first wins.

Both seem to have found new starting quarterbacks, too.

Memphis appears to have made the correct decision in going with Zach Mettenberger over Christian Hackenberg while Atlanta had to turn to Aaron Murray after Matt Sims was forced to leave last week's game with a cut on his hand.

Murray ended up going 20-of-33 for 254 passing yards and even added 54 on the ground. And more importantly, he led the Legends to victory on the road against one of the AAF's better teams (Arizona).

But I do expect books to open Memphis as a slight favorite.

While Atlanta could have surprised with its road win, Memphis had already shown promise heading into its first win after nearly upsetting the No. 1 and 2 teams in the league in back-to-back weeks.

The Express have the defense and running game to compete, and now they could have the QB who can help them become a "middle of the pack" team instead of one in the basement.

But similar to Orlando-Birmingham, the spread would have to be off my projection by 2.5 or more points before it would even trigger a bet amount in the spreadsheet, and thus I'm not expecting there to be a value bet here, either.

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San Antonio Commanders (2-2) at Arizona Hotshots (2-2)

• Projected spread: Arizona -7
• Projected total: 39.5
• Time: 8 p.m. ET on Sunday
• TV: NFL Network

After a convincing 38-22 win over Salt Lake in Week 1, you could argue that Arizona (along with Orlando) could be the AAF's top team in its inaugural season.

Since then, we've seen the Hotshots slip to the middle of the pack after going 1-2 over their past three games against an easy schedule. Meanwhile, the Commanders have really only looked like a below average team once: In their Week 3 loss in San Diego.

It's a reminder that we can't overreact to a single game.

One thing to note is that San Antonio is on game three of a four-game road trip. That's unheard of in football, and I would think that we need to keep this in mind next week when the Commanders face Atlanta in their fourth straight road game as that will have to be factored in when the time comes.

This is the toughest line to gauge where it will open/settle at.

The public is still likely giving the Hotshots the benefit of the doubt as being the league's No. 2 team, but after going 0-3 against the spread over their past three games, we could see a bit recency bias factored into the line.

I'm setting it at Arizona -7 as my breakeven line and will bet accordingly.

If I had to guess, this spread will open at Arizona -8.5 and I will take the +8.5, which is a key number in the AAF given that teams have to go for two-point conversions after every touchdown.

Koerner's Week 5 AAF Power Ratings Spreadsheet

Download the Excel file to input lines and juice from your sportsbook, as well as customize recommended bets based on your bankroll.