Koerner’s AAF Power Ratings: Compare Lines to My Projections to Find the Best Week 5 Bets

Koerner’s AAF Power Ratings: Compare Lines to My Projections to Find the Best Week 5 Bets article feature image
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Courtesy of @TheAAF/Twitter. Pictured: Memphis QB Zach Mettenberger, San Antonio RB Kenneth Farrow

  • Use Sean Koerner's projected spreads and totals from his AAF Power Ratings to bet Week 5 games, including Memphis-Atlanta and San Antonio-Arizona.

We’re switching things up for our Week 5 AAF Power Ratings.

Rather than using my ratings to make picks based on opening lines, we’ll be using my projected spreads and totals to identify what lines we should be looking to bet in all four games.

To take this a step further, I’ve created a spreadsheet that you can plug whatever line and juice is available at your sportsbook to get an estimate of your perceived edge using my power ratings. I also felt it would help to have a recommended bet amount based on the size of your bankroll, which you can customize in the sheet.

You can download the Excel file at the end of this story, but for now, here’s a pre-filled example:

Now let’s get into Week 5.

Here are my power ratings as of writing, which I’ve used to estimate lines for each matchup. We’ll dig into all four below:

Orlando Apollos (4-0) at Birmingham Iron (3-1)

  • Projected spread: Orlando -4.5
  • Projected total: 39.5
  • Time: 2 p.m. ET on Saturday
  • TV: TNT

The Apollos are still the only undefeated team. They have clearly established themselves as the league’s No. 1 team — by a fairly wide margin I might add.

It’s possible that the public is still overrating Birmingham as the Iron are now 3-1, but two of those wins came against the AAF’s bottom-two teams while the third was a luck-filled victory over Salt Lake.

I have this matchup pegged at right around Orlando -4.5, and I expect the line to open right around there. The spread would have to be off by 2.5 or more points before they even trigger a bet amount in the spreadsheet, so I’m not expecting there to be a value bet here.

Meanwhile, the under has gone 12-4 through four weeks. A lot of that has to do with the market slowly moving the average total down from around 50 to around 40. The median final has been 37.5 so far, and I have the average total being around 39 for this week.

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