Koerner’s AAF Power Ratings: Use My Projections to Find the Best Week 6 Bets

Mar 17, 2019 10:30 AM EDT
Credit:

Courtesy of @TheAAF/Twitter. Pictured: Atlanta QB Aaron Murray, Orlando WR Charles Johnson

  • Use Sean Koerner's projected spreads and totals from his AAF Power Ratings to bet Week 6 games, including San Antonio-Atlanta and Arizona-Orlando.

We started to switch things up for our AAF Power Ratings last week.

Rather than using my ratings to make picks based on opening lines, we’re now using my projected spreads and totals to identify what lines we should be looking to bet in all four games. Ideally, you can reference these ratings as soon as the market opens for Week 6 and until lines close.

I also created a spreadsheet that you can plug whatever line and juice is available at your sportsbook to get an estimate of your perceived edge using my power ratings. I felt it would help to have a recommended bet amount based on the size of your bankroll, which you can customize in the sheet.

You can download the Excel file at the end of this story, but for now, here’s a pre-filled example:

Now let’s get into Week 6.

Here are my power ratings as of writing, which I’ve used to estimate lines for each matchup. We’ll dig into all four below:

Memphis Express (1-4) at Salt Lake Stallions (1-4)

  • Projected spread: Salt Lake -5.5
  • Projected total: 38.5
  • Time: 4 p.m. ET on Saturday
  • TV: B/R Live

While both teams are tied for the worst record in the AAF, the Stallions are much better than their record indicates. They’ve had the toughest schedule to date and suffered close losses in Weeks 2 and 5 (both on the road).

We need to think of Salt Lake as a .500 team.

The Stallions finally get an easier matchup at home this week. And while the Express have been trending up since benching quarterback Christian Hackenberg for Zach Mettenberger, they’re still what I would consider a bottom-two team.

A lot of the opening spreads over the past couple weeks have been surprising, but I really do think this will open right around Salt Lake -4.

But, if oddsmakers treat this as a dead even matchup and make Salt Lake a 2.5-point favorite with home field advantage, I’ll be looking to bet heavily on it until it moves up to the key number of -3.

Arizona Hotshots (2-3) at Orlando Apollos (5-0)