Koerner’s Packers vs. 49ers Prop Picks for the NFC Championship Game


Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Graham

Jan 19, 2020, 05:25 PM EST
  • Sean Koerner, our director of predictive analytics, uses his projections to identify the best player props and picks for the NFC Championship Game.
  • Find out how he's betting Jimmy Graham's receiving yards for the Packers vs. 49ers showdown on Sunday evening.
  • He also built a spreadsheet calculator you can use to identify edges on props he might not have bet.

There’s tons of value to be had betting NFL props. And in honor of the playoffs, I’m peeling the curtain back on my full prop betting process.

Below is a guide to the player props I’m betting for Sunday’s conference championships featuring the Titans at Chiefs and Packers at 49ers. I’ve also created a downloadable spreadsheet calculator, which you can use to plug in the lines at your books and automatically calculate the exact edge on 13 different props (including ones I haven’t made picks on yet).

Note that I typically wouldn’t bet a prop unless the line offers a 58% edge according to my calculations, so every pick I’ve outlined in the following analysis reaches at least that threshold.

Now let’s dig into the slate.

AFC & NFC Championship Props & Picks: Titans-Chiefs & Packers-49ers

Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

Chiefs RB Damien Williams

Williams is a very interesting back to forecast.

Because the Chiefs fell behind to the Texans early in the Divisional Round, Kansas City was forced into an extreme pass-heavy game plan. Williams finished with 12 carries, but it’s safe to assume he would have seen more had the Chiefs not trailed by more than three scores to start the game. Therefore I’m projecting him for 13.5 carries against the Titans.



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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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