SuperContest: Week 10 has big lines to navigate
Las Vegas – If you are reading this, we know that you like sports gambling and understand the entertainment and fun you can have betting on games.
Take what happened last night on Thursday Night Football. If you were watching it for the heck of it, you didn’t care that Seattle DB Jeremy Lane, who was supposed to be in Houston but “failed” his physical, blocked an extra point in the final minutes of the game. The Seahawks were most likely going to win regardless of the blocked kick, as there were 20 second left. However, if you had bet the Cardinals at +5.5, you really, really cared about that play (the line was +6 in the SuperContest, so the game scored a push instead of a win/loss).
A meaningless moment is given major attention because of the money that changed hands due to that one seemingly insignificant play.
Cardinals +6 backers pic.twitter.com/ew7ttKrQu4
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) November 10, 2017
I bring that up because of how difficult it has been to pick games against the spread this season. At the beginning of the year, it was underdog heaven. Now, it’s underdog hell. Check out what our friends at Bet Labs Sports posted this week about where we are entering week 10.
For Team Gamenight, the team I am controlling this season, I have been inconsistently consistent with my picks. I’m now 21-21-3, but it’s been a roller coaster ride to get here. I’ve had two weeks where I picked four out of five games correctly and two weeks where I only got one pick right. Overall, I’ve had three winning weeks and five losing weeks and one 2-2-1. Luckily for me, I’ve scored 2 or 2.5 points four different times in this contestant, and I’ve scored a half of a point with a push three times.
For week 10, I’m coming off a 4-0-1 card, and I’m pretty nervous about my five selections. There are four games this week with double-digit lines, and that causes you to second guess yourself a lot. If I can get on a roll, I can start to climb up the standings, but if I slip, I could put myself out of the running for the money for good. With 22.5 points so far, I’m still just 5.5 points out of 50th place, so this season could go either way.
Let’s pick some games:
Jaguars -3.5 vs. Chargers
If you remember, I vowed to never take the Chargers again this season after what they did to me in the first month of the season. LA (or Carson) caused me to go 0-2-1 picking them early and thus, I’m now going against them whenever I can. This is an interesting game, and I recommend reading what our friends at Fantasy Labs put out this week on the Jags’ D and just how good they are. However, the Chargers; D is really, really good too. That made this pick tough, but I went with Jacksonville because of how turnover prone QB Phillip Rivers can be in big moments. I don’t love the .5 hook, but I will take the Jags to run the ball with Leonard Fournette back in the lineup and make enough plays on defense to win and cover at home.
Jets -2.5 at Bucs
Given how poor some of these games are supposed to be and how tough it has been to pick games against the spread lately, I’m going to violate one of my handicapping rules a few times this week. That rule is that I don’t take road favorites in the NFL. So far this season, road teams laying points are 21-25-3 ATS, but I’ve got a theory that there are a bunch of teams that have quit on the season. Tampa, at 2-6, is one of them, in my opinion. Without Jameis Winston at QB and with the suspension of top wideout Mike Evans for this game, what are they playing for? I’m not buying that Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to light up the scoreboard because he is playing his former team, either. The Jets (4-5) have been the surprise of the NFL this year, and I think they get another win on Sunday.
Bills +3 vs. Saints
It seems like I’m always picking games that involve New Orleans in this contest, but this is a location and weather play for me. I know the Saints like to the run the ball and use their backs as major weapons, but this is a dome team from the South playing outside in the cold for the first time. The Bills also feature the No. 2 rush defense at home, so the Saints will need to throw the ball to be effective. The weather forecast for Buffalo has the overnight low before the game at 29 degrees. It will be sunny and 40 degrees at kickoff, but the turf will be solid and the Saints played indoors the last two weeks. The last time Buffalo was getting points at home this year, they beat the Broncos by 10, and they haven’t lost at home yet this season. Drew Brees is way better than anyone Denver has on their roster under center, but I like Tyrod Taylor and the Bills to ride the emotion of the home crowd and snap New Orleans’ six-game winning streak.
Rams -12 vs. Texans
The Texans signed a quarterback to their roster this week who hasn’t thrown a pass in the NFL since 2011 in Josh Johnson. The injury to Deshaun Watson has put the Texans in the category I was talking about earlier with the Bucs. The Texans are done. QB Tom Savage couldn’t beat the Colts at home last week and has to deal with Aaron Donald this week. The Rams have the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL, and the Texans’ secondary is trash. Houston can’t rush the QB anymore with all their injuries, and LA is coming off a 51-point thrashing of New York on the road. This is game has blown out written all over it. That could mean this pick is in trouble, but I don’t think so.
Patriots -7.5 at Broncos
In 2015, the Patriots lost an overtime thriller to the Broncos in Denver with QB Brock Osweiler under center. That game basically ended the Patriots’ season in Week 15 because they had to play the AFC Championship game at Mile High that year and lost to Peyton Manning. New England won the Super Bowl last year, but Tom Brady remembers who beat him in big games. This is a revenge game for the Pats, who are 6-2 SU in road games coming off a bye. The Broncos’ offense is awful, and as long as it doesn’t snow, I like the Pats’ defense to keep Denver’s running game in check. New England’s offense is going to score at least 28 points, and I just don’t see how Denver can match that even with a questionable New England defense. I’ll lay the points here on the road, something I hate to do, because of the added emotions that this game will have for Brady’s bunch.
As for our other teams in the SuperContest, team Sports Action (20-23-2) will take Washington (+1) at home against the Vikings, Detroit (-12) to cover a double-digit line at home against the Browns, the Rams (-12) to also take care of business at home against Houston, the Giants (-2.5) to beat the lowly 49ers on the road, and Miami (+9) to play well on the road at Carolina on Monday Night Football.
Team Bet the Process (24-19-2) also likes Washington (+1), but they will take the points with Cleveland (+12) on the road at Detroit. Bet picked the other side the Jets vs. Bucs game by siding with Tampa (+2.5), and they tabbed the Saints (-3) to cover at Buffalo. Like Sports Action, Bet has taken the Giants (-2.5) to keep San Fran winless in 2017.
Team Beatrix Kiddo (20-23-2) was still deciding when this post published.
Look for the Fade Or Follow podcast tomorrow as we break down the five consensus picks for Week 10 of the Westgate SuperContest right here!