Falcons-Buccaneers Betting Preview: Buy Atlanta One Last Time?

Betting odds: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Spread: Buccaneers -1 
• Over/Under: 51
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: The Falcons are getting 58% of the bets and 69% of the cash. We’ve tracked a reverse line move that has helped them move from +2 to as high as -1.5 since opening (see live data here). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Bettors are expecting Falcons-Bucs to be a shootout. More than 70% of tickets are on the over pushing the over/under from 49.5 to 52.

A word of caution if you are considering betting the over: Since 2003, in the second half of the season, the under has gone 170-125-5 (58%) when the total increases by one or more points in a high-total game (45 or more points) according to our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing

The Buccaneers through Week 13 were averaging 26.5 points per game, 10th in the NFL. Now, over the past three weeks, Tampa Bay has scored fewer than 21 points in each game.

Matt Ryan in his career has faced 19 teams that have scored fewer than 21 points in three straight games and he is 14-5 against the spread (73.7%), covering the spread by 6.8 PPG, profiting bettors 9.3 units — the most profitable quarterback in the Bet Labs database in this spot. — Evan Abrams

Draft order: Both of these teams are in the running for a top-10 draft pick. Tampa Bay currently has the No. 6 selection, while Atlanta's two consecutive wins have moved it down to No. 10.

A Falcons loss would ensure they get a better pick than the Bucs, as Atlanta has played a weaker schedule. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Falcons defense vs. Jameis Winston

The Buccaneers defensive line (top five adjusted sack rate) has actually been one of the more impressive units on a disappointing team, but this is a pretty simple game to cap (assuming both teams show up for a meaningless clash in Week 17).

These are two dynamic, pass-happy offenses (both rank in the top six in the NFL in average attempts per game and yards per attempt) that will face two horrendous pass defenses (29th and 30th in pass defense DVOA).

The difference will come down to turnovers. Jameis Winston remains one of the most turnover-prone quarterbacks in the NFL, while Matt Ryan values the ball as well as any quarterback in the league.

Career interception rate: Ryan – 2.1% (top 10 all time) | Winston – 3.0%
Career fumble rate: Ryan – 0.36 per game | Winston – 0.69 per game

Winston isn't getting dramatically better in this department if you just look at 2018:

Ryan: 33 TD 6 INT (1.1% INT rate)
Winston: 15 TD 13 INT (2.8% INT rate)

If you include lost fumbles, Winston has turned it over more times than he has thrown for touchdowns. On the contrary, Ryan has three times as many passing touchdowns as he does turnovers.

In a game where both passing offenses should thrive against wretched defenses, the difference will come down to giveaways — and Winston has shown us time and time again he’s much more likely to commit that key turnover (or two) — Stuckey

Which team is healthier? Buccaneers

Neither team is expected to rest any healthy starters. The expected absence of DeSean Jackson (Achilles) means Chris Godwin should see plenty of snaps.

Meanwhile, the Bucs defense is less than 100% with defensive linemen Gerald McCoy (shoulder), Jason Pierre-Paul (knee, shoulder) and Carl Nassib (shoulder) all banged up.

The Falcons could be without Tevin Coleman (groin) and Julio Jones (ribs, hip), while the potential absences of left guard Wes Schweitzer would also be troublesome.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: If Jackson (Achilles) doesn’t suit up on Sunday, Godwin will be back in play at $4,300 on DraftKings and $5,100 on FanDuel.

His price dropped a few hundred dollars on both sites after he was priced up for when Jackson was missing time with a thumb injury. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Falcons -1

The Falcons could be without their main running back Coleman (groin), but backup Brian Hill flashed his talent last week (8-115-0), and he was a strong collegiate runner at Wyoming (349-1,860-22 as a junior in 2016).

Since the Bucs fired defensive coordinator Mike Smith in Week 7, they have been highly vulnerable on the ground, allowing 145.3 yards rushing per game. Even with their fourth-string running back, the Falcons should be able to control the ball.

The Bucs have reportedly not ruled out the possibility of giving some snaps to backup quarterback Ryan Griffin so that they can see what they have in him, while the Falcons seem eager to give the first-team offense as much playing time as possible so that wide receiver Julio Jones can win his second receiving title. He currently leads the league with 1,539 yards.

Although the Falcons are 29th in defensive DVOA, they have played most of the season without middle linebacker Deion Jones. With him (he returned in Week 13), they have been a totally different team on defense.

With Jones (five games): 20.4 points allowed per game, 1.8 allowed per drive
Without Jones (10 games): 28.9 points allowed per game, 2.67 allowed per drive

With the defense improved and the offense expected to play as it usually does, the Falcons could roll against a Bucs team looking to evaluate non-starters. — Matthew Freedman

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.