Falcons-Buccaneers Betting Preview: Buy Atlanta One Last Time?

Dec 30, 2018 8:03 AM EST
Credit:

Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2).

Betting odds: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Spread: Buccaneers -1 
  • Over/Under: 51
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: The Falcons are getting 58% of the bets and 69% of the cash. We’ve tracked a reverse line move that has helped them move from +2 to as high as -1.5 since opening (see live data here). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Bettors are expecting Falcons-Bucs to be a shootout. More than 70% of tickets are on the over pushing the over/under from 49.5 to 52.

A word of caution if you are considering betting the over: Since 2003, in the second half of the season, the under has gone 170-125-5 (58%) when the total increases by one or more points in a high-total game (45 or more points) according to our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing

The Buccaneers through Week 13 were averaging 26.5 points per game, 10th in the NFL. Now, over the past three weeks, Tampa Bay has scored fewer than 21 points in each game.

Matt Ryan in his career has faced 19 teams that have scored fewer than 21 points in three straight games and he is 14-5 against the spread (73.7%), covering the spread by 6.8 PPG, profiting bettors 9.3 units — the most profitable quarterback in the Bet Labs database in this spot. — Evan Abrams

Draft order: Both of these teams are in the running for a top-10 draft pick. Tampa Bay currently has the No. 6 selection, while Atlanta’s two consecutive wins have moved it down to No. 10.

A Falcons loss would ensure they get a better pick than the Bucs, as Atlanta has played a weaker schedule. Scott T. Miller