Ravens vs 49ers Odds, Prediction, Pick for Monday Night Football

Ravens vs 49ers Odds, Prediction, Pick for Monday Night Football article feature image

Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson (left) and Brock Purdy (right).

Ravens vs 49ers Odds, Prediction, Pick for Monday Night Football

Monday, Dec. 25
8:15 p.m. ET
Ravens Odds
-110o / -110u
49ers Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Ravens vs 49ers odds have the 49ers installed as 6.5-point favorites on the spread with an over/under of 47.5 total points for Monday Night Football. My MNF NFL pick for Christmas night is on the underdog Ravens to cover.

The NFL Week 16 Christmas tripleheader concludes at Levi's Stadium, where the 49ers (11-3) host the Ravens (11-3) in a heavyweight matchup on Monday Night Football. Baltimore enters MNF on a four-game winning streak while San Francisco has won six in a row, so something has to give.

The 49ers will be missing some key players as WR Jauan Jennings (concussion), DE Arik Armstead (foot/knee) and RB Elijah Mitchell (knee) have been ruled out. However, DT Javon Hargrave (hamstring) will play after missing last week's game. For the Ravens, WR Zay Flowers (foot) is active after being listed as questionable all week.

Continue reading for my Monday Night Football betting preview and Ravens vs 49ers prediction.

Ravens vs 49ers Prediction

Pick: Ravens +6.5 (-110) | Play to +4.5

Ravens vs. 49ers Preview

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Ravens and 49ers match up statistically:

Ravens vs. 49ers DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA44
Pass DVOA124
Rush DVOA119
Overall DVOA12
Pass DVOA12
Rush DVOA29

If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years as a Ravens fan and bettor, John Harbaugh is always worth a long, hard look as an underdog.

Since 2018, the long-time Ravens coach has gone 19-4 (82.6%) against the spread (ATS) when catching points. He will always have his teams buttoned up in a spot like this with a great game plan and superior special teams, where the Ravens will once again hold an edge on Monday night.

Similarly, Lamar Jackson owns a gaudy 15-1 ATS mark as an underdog or favorite of less than a field goal. He’s also 19-1 straight-up against the NFC in his career, which is a stat you’ll likely see multiple times leading up to kickoff.

It’s a bit overblown since the Ravens have been much better than many of the NFC teams Jackson has faced. However, I still bring it up for two reasons.

There is some validity to the fact that defenses that don’t face Jackson often have a bit of an adjustment period early on in games since they aren’t used to his speed. San Francisco also runs a lot of Cover 2 and 3 looks — Jackson has shredded those this season under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken.

I also believe the AFC vs. NFC angle is at least worth something based on the performances of the two conferences in 2023. Entering Week 16, the AFC has gone 41-31 SU against the NFC, which includes two previous AFC North victories over the 49ers.

From an injury perspective, the Ravens will miss rookie sensation Keaton Mitchell (torn ACL) as an explosive option out of the backfield. However, starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley (concussion) logged full practices on Friday and Saturday, which is a good sign ahead of a key matchup with Joey Bosa. Harbaugh also stated he has no concern over the status of Zay Flowers (foot), who also practiced fully on Friday and Saturday.

Ravens vs. 49ers Picks | FanDuel

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It's the 49ers who actually have much bigger questions on the injury front.

Criminally underrated wide receiver Jauan Jennings (concussion), who also thrives as a blocker, has been ruled out. The defense could also be severely shorthanded. Earlier in the season, the 49ers had major issues in coverage before benching Isaiah Oliver for Deommodore Lenoir, who has played at a very high level since being inserted into the starting lineup. Lenoir is dealing with a rib injury but will play on Monday.

Against the Cardinals, the 49ers were without their two best interior defensive linemen — Javon Hargrave (hamstring) and Arik Armstead (foot, knee). Without those two, Arizona averaged eight yards per carry. That could prove problematic against the league's best rushing attack (at least statistically), spearheaded by a mobile quarterback, which have given the 49ers trouble in the past. Armstead has been ruled out and will miss his third consecutive game though Hargrave is active.

As for the Ravens defense, it's one of the best units in football and will be a tough test for San Francisco. Baltimore's stop unit has no glaring weaknesses from a personnel perspective, but defensive coordinator Mike McDonald doesn't get enough credit for his versatile game planning on a weekly basis. He can potentially confuse Brock Purdy into a critical mistake or two, while exploiting some of the holes San Francisco has along the offensive line.

Ravens vs. 49ers Prediction & Pick

I have the 49ers power rated as the best team in the league. They have an unbelievably dynamic offense that no defense will shut down, but the Ravens can get a few stops and keep up on offense.

Ultimately, I just don't see the gap between Baltimore and San Francisco being as wide as some respected oddsmakers. Therefore, I happily took the 5.5 points with this battle-tested bunch that boasts the superior defense and special teams.

I think this goes right down to the wire and lives up to the hype.

Trending: The Ravens have gone 6-1 this season on the road, where they have allowed the fewest points (14.4) and yards (270.3) in the league.

Pick: Ravens +6.5 | Play to +4.5
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