BlackJack: The Odds for This NFL Prop Bet Can’t Be For Real
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady
- One offshore sportsbook posted an interesting prop: What will be the most wins by any NFL team in 2018: Over/Under 13.5?
- Here's the thing: The line is way too high -- only five teams in the past 10 seasons have won 14 or more games -- and the odds are way off.
- The over is -155, while you can get plus-money on the under (+115).
We might have come across a diamond in the rough, brother.
While preparing for “I’ll Take That Bet” this morning, our crack staff here at The Action Network found a very interesting prop bet for this NFL season.
The bet is still available, and several of us read it multiple times just to make sure we weren’t seeing things. After thorough review, I determined it was my duty to inform you of this juicy little number while it was still available.
- Over 13.5 (-155)
- Under 13.5 (+115)
- Note: All 256 games must be played for action. Odds as of Aug. 22 at 2 p.m. ET.
Now, sit back and think about this for a second.
In the past 10 seasons, only five teams have won 14 or more games:
- 2015 Carolina Panthers: 15-1
- 2011 Green Bay Packers: 15-1
- 2009 Indianapolis Colts: 14-2
- 2010/2016 New England Patriots: 14-2
Surveying the league this season, I don’t see many — if any — teams that can realistically churn out a season like that.
The Patriots are the obvious exception.
Last year they went 13-3 — still short of the over on this bet — and they are slightly weaker this season.
They lost Malcolm Butler, Dion Lewis, Nate Solder and Danny Amendola in the offseason. They also lose Julian Edelman for the first four weeks of the season.
Rob Gronkowski is injury-prone, per usual, and 41-year-old Tom Brady ain’t getting any younger.
With the Patriots’ schedule featuring non-divisional opponents such as Jacksonville, Green Bay, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Houston and Kansas City, 13-3 looks like a realistic ceiling for New England.
Besides the Patriots, which other teams could really go 14-2?
Philadelphia plays in the tough NFC East and has injury questions at quarterback to start the season.
The Packers and Vikings both play difficult schedules, and the NFC South is far too tough to produce a 14-win team.
Pittsburgh has the talent to feasibly do it, but Big Ben has been hurt nearly every season.
The Steelers also have to play Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina, New England and go to Denver. Seems highly unlikely the Steelers pull out a two-loss campaign.
Also, remember Vegas’ highest win total this season is 11.5 (Patriots).
This line is simply too high and juiced the wrong way.
Thank me later, brother.