Bills-Colts Betting Preview: The Over/Under Play With Value

Oct 21, 2018 08:30 AM EDT

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Andrew Luck

Betting odds: Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts

  • Spread: Colts -7.5
  • Over/Under: 43
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: Surprisingly enough, 46% of bettors are on the Bills at the time of writing, despite quarterback Derek Anderson starting just his fifth game since 2011.

The line has moved in the Bills’ favor, too, as they’ve gone from +9.5 to +7.5.

There doesn’t appear to be enough sharp action to push them to the key number of +7, though, as the line has been fairly stagnant since Tuesday (see live betting data here). —Mark Gallant

Trends to know: This is the first time Andrew Luck has been a favorite of seven or more points since 2014. In his career, Luck is 8-1 straight up and 6-2-1 against the spread in this spot, according to our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing

The Bills have covered back-to-back games. Part of their success has been turnovers, as their opponents have coughed up the ball three times in each of the last two games.

Teams that average three or more takeaways in consecutive weeks have gone 130-172-9 (43%) ATS in their next game. — John Ewing

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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