Cardinals vs. Cowboys Odds, Pick: Bet on Dallas To Cover the Spread on Monday Night Football

Credit:

Abbie Parr/Getty Images. Pictured: Dallas Cowboys quarterback Andy Dalton.

Cardinals vs. Cowboys Betting Odds

Cardinals Odds +1.5
Cowboys Odds -1.5
Projected Spread +1.5 (see all projections)
Over/Under 54.5
Projected Over/Under 55.6 (see all projections)
Time/Channel  8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

What a start to the 2020 NFL season for the Dallas Cowboys.

  • The good: Dallas is in first place in the NFC East.
  • The bad: The Cowboys have won just two of their first five games.
  • The ugly: Starting quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a gruesome ankle injury that will end his season.

The Cowboys have also struggled to cash tickets for bettors this season, sporting a goose egg in the against-the-spread (ATS) win column for an 0-5 ATS record overall.

Dallas is a 1.5-point home favorite (see live NFL odds here) against Arizona on Monday Night Football. As of Monday morning 51% of early bettors are taking the Cowboys for tonight’s game.

And while the splits indicate very balanced overall betting, those backing Dallas may be onto something when you consider how teams have performed in similar situations historically.

According to our Bet Labs software, which archives betting data since the start of the 2003 NFL season, just 31 teams have failed to cover a single point spread through the first five weeks of a season.

Those teams are 22-9 (71%) against the spread (ATS) in that spot.

Now, while that data is encouraging, a sample of 31 games is simply too small for confidently making actionable betting decisions.

However, that angle does fit a larger, more encompassing strategy with a much fatter sample size while keeping an impressive win rate.

Cardinals vs. Cowboys PRO Betting System Pick

According to our Team ATS Records PRO System, teams with poor ATS records — defined as a win rate of 30% or less — facing teams with winning ATS records are 174-110-11 (61%) ATS from Weeks 6-17.

This makes sense as the majority of bettors will avoid teams that have burned them in recent weeks, especially when facing an opponent that has been profitable.

Oddsmakers understand this tendency, especially in a situation like Dallas, which includes losing its franchise quarterback to injury, and will shade lines to make the masses of bettors who will blindly bet on Arizona take bad numbers — or numbers that are intentionally moved to penalize Cardinals backers.

And while Dalton doesn’t exactly light a fire under NFL bettors, he has defied market expectations throughout his career, evidenced by a 70-56-6 (55.6%) ATS record as a starter.

If you’re willing to take an ugly position, the Cowboys are not a bad way to find value on Monday.

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